SSS Tips
The big news is that the rinse has packed it in. He’s hung his hat up and will no longer be taking part. I’ll cover this week and maybe someone else will step in to fill his trousers. The profit has been hovering around the same mark for a while so maybe this might be the weekend we break the 10 point barrier.
I’ll begin with a corner bet
Derby v Spurs (eng prem – sat 3pm local time)
Looking at the handicap again here. It's not that often that the home team is the receiver of handicap but Derby get a nice +1.5, 2 here. Derby have played at home 12 times this season and Liverpool and Wigan beat them by 5 corners but no-one else has beaten them by more than 2. Once they were beaten by 2 but the other 9 occasions would have won this bet. In consecutive away games in September Spurs won by 7 and 8 corners, but the only other game when they would have beaten this handicap was away at Chelsea meaning they would have lost it 10/13 times. From these stats this just has to be a bet.
++ Asian Handicap Corners – Derby +1.5, 2 @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)
I have plumped for some different style bets as well this week as they sprang up when using the consoles. Will see how they do.
Bradford v Bury (eng lge 2 – sat 3pm local time)
This is a simple stats bet and the price on offer seems very generous. 8/13 Bradford home games have been over 2.5 goals and 9/13 Bury away games. Add them together and you get 17/26 which is a 65% chance so that’s odds of 1.53, but this is widely available at 1.91 and Pinnacle and Bet365vgo above evens.
++ Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 on Bet365 (1pt)
BristolCity v Sheffield Wednesday (eng championship – sat 3pm local time)
Going through the AH console I saw the large bars on Home +1 (the home team winning by one goal) and it turns out in 7/15 Bristol City games at home they have won by 1 goal and looking at Wednesday it’s the same in that 7/15 have been lost by 1 goal. After seeing this it was just a case of finding a bet.
++ Winning Margin – BristolCity to win by 1 goal @ 3.6 on Bet365 (1/2pt)
Real Madrid v Valladolid (la liga – sun 7pm local time)
Madrid crashed last week but they should get back to winning ways at home. They have won all 10 home games this season but surprisingly have been drawing at HT in 7 of these. I noticed this on the pie charts on the main console and for Valladolid it’s 6/10 games have been drawn at HT. My initial plan here was to just back the HT draw at 3 but as Madrid have won all 10 at home you’d expect them to win this so may as well take the draw-madrid option as the price is much better.
++ HT/FT – Draw/Real Madrid @ 4.75 on Blue Sq (1/2pt)
Now the standard AH and win bets.
Sampdoria v Napoli (serie A – sun 3pm local time)
Sampdoria have been strong at home this season with a record of W6 D3 L1 and 4 wins in the last 5 with a draw against Fiorentina as the other. Napoli away have been as bad as Sampdoria are good at home with 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses and 5 losses in the last 6 games. The price of 1.91 looked decent but then I noticed that on the AH you can get Sampdoria -0.5 at above evens.
++ Sampdoria -0.5 @ 2.05 on Bet365 (1pt)
Sevilla v Barcelona (la liga – sat 10pm local time)
What a game this could be! Sevilla have struggled this season but manage to raise their game when one of the big two are in town. They drew this fixture last season but Sevilla won it the 2 previous seasons. There could be goals and cards in this game. Sevilla seem to be back to full strength with Keita and Kanoute back, but Barcelona look to be without Bojan, Deco and Zambrotta and maybe more. Puyol may miss the game and that would mean a back 4 containing Thuram and Oleguer. Thuram was a great player but is a liability whenever he plays and if he’s on the pitch will make some sort of howler. He really should retire and I also have no idea why Barcelona spend so much on players yet settle for a goalkeeper who is never deemed good enough to make the Spain squad. That’s enough of a barca rant so now the stats. Sevilla have won 8 and drawn 3 at home this season, winning 6 of the last 7, but Barcelona have been shaky away with only 3 wins in the 10 away games an scoring just 13 goals. The AH of Sevilla 0, the same as draw no bet appeals, although I imagine I’ll end up backing the sevilla win as well come Saturday night. Sevilla were available at evens earlier today and have been cut to 1.95 and I’m happy to go 2 points on this one.
++ Sevilla (0) @ 1.95 on (2pts)
6 points bet in total
Spinner Rinse
As I said the rinse is gone so my selections would be Swansea to win at Crewe (eng lge 1), Leicester to beat Plymouth (championship), Sunderland to win at home to Wigan (prem), Inter Milan to win at Catania and Sampdoria to beat Napoli (both serie A).
++ 5-fold accumulator @ 23.49 on Bet365
