Week 19 Bets (01.03.08)

SSS Tips

A new month starts so hopefully we can continue in good form. A full program for the first time in a while and a variety of bets again although the half time ones seem to feature more than normal. Overall 8 bets which I hope isn't too many.

Interesting games in Spain this weekend and it’s not often you get the chance to back Real Madrid and Barcelona in a double at nearly 3/1. Atletico Madrid have been poor of late and if Simao still isn’t back I would fancy Barcelona to win that one.

First up a corner bet.

Middlesbrough v Reading

This looks like an overs on the corner front. Craven Cottage and the Madjeski are the only two grounds that have a higher corner average than the Riverside and only Tottenham, Chelsea and Man Utd average more corners at home than Boro. Away from home Reading average more corners than any other team with 6.9 and also concede more than anyone else with 7.9 giving a whopping average of 14.8 corners in their away games. Boro at home and Reading away combine for an average of 13.8 corners so taking the asian total with the safety of net of 12 corners looks good.
++ Asian Total Corners – Over 12 @ 1.85 on Bet365 (1pt)

I’ll persist once more with an over under short odds double.

St Etienne v Nice (france – sun 6pm local time)/Bochum v Bayer Leverkusen (germany – sun 5pm local time)

St Etienne v Nice you have 9/12 St Etienne home games under 2.5 and an amazing 12/13 Nice away games under. Together it’s 21/25 (84%) which is odds of 1.19 but can be backed at over 1.55. Bochum have 9/10 home games over 2.5 and Leverkusen have 8/13 away games which gives 17/23 (74%) so odds of 1.35 but is available at above 1.67. I couldn’t get my odds comparison site to do both these games but think I have still found the best odds on Bet365.
++ Double – St Et v Nice Under 2.5/Bochum v Leverkusen Over 2.5 @ 2.61 on Bet365 (1pt)

I think I have found some value in HT bets. I may have gone half time mad this week but only time will tell.

Middlesbrough v Reading (eng prem – sat 3pm local time)

Got this game for the corner bet but now there’s something else. In the console you can see that Reading are very poor at HT, losing 9/13, and Middlesboro pretty decent, being ahead 6/13. Digging a bit deeper it seems that 1-0 is pretty popular and so in all home games boro have led 1-0 at HT 5 times and 4 of those were in the last 6 games. 7 times Reading have been behind 1-0 at the break and 4 of the last 6 so overall we get 12/25 (48%) which is odds of 2.1 so the 3.75 (Bet365/Paddy Power) on offer looks good value. This was available earlier at 4 on Sporting Odds so is worth checking when they put the market back up. Betfair looks to have 4 as well.
++ Half Time Score – 1-0 @ 3.75 on Bet365/Paddy Power (½pt)

Cardiff v Leicester (eng champ – sat 3pm local time)

Both the half time pie charts really stand out here with Cardiff leading at home 9/16 times and Leicester losing away in 10/17 games. Also in the last 5 games Cardiff had led in 4 and Leicester have lost in 4. Hopefully that pattern will continue as adding the two up you get 19/33 (58%) chance which is odds of 1.74 and as 2.5 and above is widely available it looks good value.
++ Half Time –
Cardiff @ 2.625 on Betfred (1pt)

Villareal v Osasuna (spain – sat 5pm local time)

Last season this both the fixtures between these two ended up 4-1 to the away team. The HT draw looks good value here as 7/13 Villareal home games have been a HT draw and 8/12 Osasuna away games. That’s 15/25 (60%) and should be odds of 1.67 but 2.25 is available (and higher on betfair). I will risk half a point on that and another half that Villareal then go on to win the game as 4 of the 7 Villareal HT draws and and 6 of the 8 Osasuna HT draws have ended with a home win. That’s 10/25 (40%) so odds of 2.5 but can be backed at 4.5.
++ Half Time – Draw @ 2.25 on Bet365/Blue Sq/Coral (½pt)
++ HT/FT – Draw/Villareal @ 4.5 on Sporting Bet/Blue Sq/Skybet/Ladbrokes (½pt)
 

A different one here.

Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund (germany – sat 3:30pm local time)

There was quite a lot about this game that looked worth a bet. Over 2.5, Bremen to be winning at HT amongst others but I am going for something new. In the correct score chart I noticed a big blue bar in the Other category which means Bremen like a goal. Delving deeper I found that Bremen have scored 3 or more in 5/11 home games and Dortmund have conceded 3 or more in 5/11 away games. Both these records are a 45% chance so should be odds of 2.2. I then found Bet365 offerring 4.33 on ‘3 Star Werder Bremen-Werder Bremen To Score 3 Or More’. Looks worth half a point.
++ Match Specials – 3 Star Werder
Bremen To Score 3 Or More @ 4.33 on Bet365 (½pt)

More traditional.

Lorient v Nancy (france – sat 8pm local time)

Lorient are unbeaten in 9 at home and have won 6 of the last 7. Nancy are above them in 3rd place but really this is due to their strong home form. Away from home they have W2 D7 L4 so although they haven’t lost many I think they could in this game. It’s 9 games since they won away and although they have drawn 3 of the last 5 away they have failed to score in any of those games. Lorient have score in 10/13 home games and although they don’t score a lot I would think they can score in this game and 1 goal might be enough. The price of 2.4 represents value for me on the win but to be safe I’ll side the Asian handicap of 0, -0.5 as it’s still above evens.
++ Asian Handicap –
Lorient 0, -0.5 @ 2.075 on Bet365 (1pt)

Recreativo Huelva v Real Madrid (spain – sat 8pm local time)

So let’s see, we have the league leaders away, who have the best away record in the league, against a team 2 points above the relegation zone and you can back them at evens hmmmmm. Real Madrid have struggled lately but I am prepared to wager that it won’t continue. Pepe and Robinho were back training with the squad and even though they have a big game against Roma in the week I think they will have a strong team out for this game as they need a win. I can’t really use stats to back this price up but it just seems too high and a bit of an overreaction to the recent slump. The AH market -0.5 gives a much better price than the win.
++ Asian Handicap – Real
Madrid -0.5 @ 1.975 on Bet365 (1pt)

7 points bet in total

Spinner Rinse

Going for some shorter odds this week in Norwich to beat Blackpool and Cardiff to beat Leicester in the Championship, Northampton to beat Crewe in League 1, Werder Bremen to beat Dortmund in Germany and Real Madrid to win at Recreativo in Spain.
++ Five-fold accumulator @ 21.05 on bet365

NOTES

I am pretty sure there will also be a bet on Monday night involving the Forest v Carlisle game too so will update all games on Monday and post that bet up if it looks good.

29 Feb, 08 | Posted in: Tips | Comments Closed