Weekend 7th March 2009

Well we begin to get to the business end of the season with more and more at stake so hopefully there are teams hitting form and clear patterns emerging. Champions League games in midweek which means it’s hard to predict the lineups of the teams involved.

Sporting Gijon need to get back to winning ways and I begin to fret a little when you see their position but thankfully they don’t have to play Barca, Real Madrid, Sevilla or Villarreal again. It’s the Madrid derby on Saturday night and it will be interesting to see which players are rested. It’s a really huge game for both sides and both are behind in their Champions League ties. Valencia still haven’t been paid, Marchena has hit out at the coach being too offensive, the new person in charge of day to day runnings has admitted players will more than likely be sold and/or the ground and a trip to Numancia could be tricky, especially if Silva is missing as well due to injury.

Just one game in the Premier League so no corner bet this weekend.

Swindon v MK Dons (English League One: Sat 3pm Local Time)

As Leicester sprint clear the battle for 2nd place looks to be between Peterborough and the MK Dons. This is a game they must win and their away form this season has been fantastic with 10 wins in 16 games and a win would give them the best away record in the division. Swindon have been poor at home with just 5 wins in 17 games and 7 losses. Taking their losses and the Dons wins we have 17/33 games going to the away team which is just over half and would give the MK Dons odds of 1.94, so as 2.2 is available already there is value. The Dons have drawn their last 2 games but one was against Leicester and the other was away at Tranmere who have the second best home record in the league. Of the 6 away games they didn’t win this season 4 were against teams who have one of the top 5 home records. Against lower opposition they have been extremely strong. Another fact is away from home they have led at HT and FT in 8/16 matches and if we look at Swindon at home they have been losing at HT and FT in 5/17 matches. That’s 13/33 which is odds of just over 2.5 and 3.75 is on offer. I am suggesting 2 points on this bet with 1 on each bet.

++ Win Market – MK Dons @ 2.2 on Bet365/Ladbrokes and 4 others (1pt)

++ HT/FT – MK Dons/MK Dons @ 3.75 on Bet365/Ladbrokes (1pt)

Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen (Germany: Sat 2:30pm local time)

Here’s one I don’t understand. Hoffenheim have a rich owner who has pumped in some money and they find themselves in 3rd place in the Bundesliga just 2 points off the top, whilst Werder Bremen sit in 11th place 13 points behind and just 8 of the drop zone. Hoffengeim have the 4th best home record with 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 11 matches, whereas Bremen have picked up just 6 of a possible 30 points away and won just once. Despite all this Werder Bremen are favourites despite being away. Last weekend Bremen drew 0-0 with misfiring Munchen but also had a man red carded so although that makes that achievement better it also means they are without a first choice centre back. Bremen have lost their last 4 away games and Hoffenheim lost at home for the first time in their last home game, but that was against Leverkeusen who have the best away record in die Bundesliga and before that is was 8 wins from 10. This is one of the games when you see the price and wonder if you have missed something as Hoffenheim are available at 3 and even 3.2 on Betfair. It just has to be a bet.

++ Win Market – Hoffenheim @ 35 on Bet365 (1pt) – 3.2 on Betfair

Wolfsburg v Karlsruhe (Germany: Sat 2:30pm local time)

Wolfsburg are rightly a short priced favourite for this game as they sit in 4th place in die Bundesliga, have the second best form over the last 10 games and have won 9 and drawn 1 of their 10 home games. Second from bottom Karlsruhe arrive with 9/11 away games lost and 7 of the last 10 games as well. I believe there is value in the 1.44 available but cannot be tipping at that odds so if we look at the Asian Handicap we can get something of interest. If we back Wolfsburg at -1, -1.5 and take their home games and Karlsruhe away games together this bet would have won on the -1 10 times, lost just 3 and been voided 8 times and then on the -1.5 won 10 times and lost 11. So, even the -1.5 looks to be odds of 2.1 so if we are getting 2 with half the bet on the -1 then we are doing well. Hope that’s not too complicated!

++ Asian Handicap – Wolfsburg (-1, -1.5) @ 2 on Bet365 (1pt)

Villarreal v Espanyol (Spain: Sat 8pm local time)

This one is a standard stats bet. I looked at this quite a bit this season and I find the Over/Under 2.5 market very hard but Paddy Power offer an interesting market on total goals where 2 or 3 goals is nearly always priced at 1.91 (it’s 2 for some of the lower scoring leagues like Greece). Of all the games this weekend this one stands out as 9/12 Villarreal home games have been 2 or 3 goals and 9/13 Espanyol away games. That gives us 18/25 which is 72% and odds of 1.38 so lets take what Paddy Power offer. I think both teams will score in this game so 1-1 or 2-1 either way looks likely and I’ll have a small punt on 2-1 Espanyol.

++ Number of Goals – 2 or 3 @ 1.91 on Paddy Power (1pt)

5 points staked on the weekend.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

6 Mar, 09 | Comments Closed

Roundup: MidWeek 3rd March 2009

Bit late with this. Brentford provided a welcome winner as they scored early at Grimsby and then held on for the 1-0 win. Going in to Wednesday it was nice to know there was no loss going to happen but it was very disappointing Fulham lost to Hull and was a bit of a shock. +0.1 profit over the two games.

103 Bets (98 points staked) :: 31 won – 59 lost – 7 void – 1 half void :: -11.17 points

* This does not include the 3 antepost bets.

“If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Chico Marx

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