MidWeek 28th April 2009

I don’t really like to get involved in the Champions league but the prices this week look madness.

Barcelona v Chelsea (Champions League: Tuesday 8:45pm local time)
Barcelona are a best priced 1.73 in this game and Expekt offer the draw at 3.65 and Chelsea at 5.8. There is no doubt Barcelona are a very good team and have ripped some teams to shreds this year but they are not as good as most people give them credit for. On Saturday they needed a goalkeeping error to help them out and get a draw against Valencia and I believe in the Spanish league this has been one of their few tests this season. The Spanish league is weak and I think you can see this by the performance of the Spanish teams in Europe this season. Real Madrid beat 3rd placed Sevilla 4-2 on Sunday and that was essentially the same Real Madrid team beaten home and away by Liverpool 5-0 on aggregate. Huntelaar was the only real absentee and Liverpool absolutely crushed them. Real lie just 4 points behind Barcelona in the league with both of them meeting on Saturday. Barcelona are going to have their entire season, and possibly legacy, defined in the next 2 weeks. It’s very hard to draw a line between any European form but Liverpools drubbing of Real Madrid really was emphatic, and Arsenal beating Villarreal easily at home shows the strength of the English league.

Guardiola also has some selection difficulties as Xavi, Iniesta, Messi, Henry and Eto’o are almost impossible to leave out but if you play them you are left with just YaYa Toure as a defensive midfielder. Hiddink will no doubt be aware of any weaknesses and you have to fancy him over Pep, who last season was patrolling the dugout of Barcelona reserves and playing teams like Rapitenca who are from the place I lived previously with a population of just 10,000. Physically Chelsea are stonger and there is very little height in the Barcelona team and that is something that could be exploited.

I looked through some of the recent matchups between Barcelona and English teams in the Champions League.

2005 v Chelsea – Barcelona win 2-1 at Camp Nou (Chelsea win on aggregate)

2006 v Chelsea – Draw 1-1 at Camp Nou (Barca win on aggregate) *

2006 v Arsenal – Barcelona win final 2-1 *

2006 v Chelsea (group stage) – 2-2 at Camp Nou (Chelsea win at home)

2007 v Liverpool – Liverpool win 2-1 at Camp Nou (Liverpool win on aggregate)

2008 v Manchester United – 0-0 draw at Camp Nou (United win on aggregate)

* In both these crucial matches a player from the English team was sent off (Del Horno and Lehmann)

I think the sending offs are key and need to be factored in. Essentially there have been 6 clashes over the past 3 seasons with the English teams coming out on top 4 times. Of the 5 games in the Camp Nou Barca have won once, lost once and drawn 3 times. I could quite easily see a draw again. I cannot quite see how the prices have been done for this game. Real Madrid host Barcelona on Saturday and Madrid are favourites yet this Madrid team was thrashed by Liverpool, who themselves were the knocked out by Chelsea. Betfair offer 5.8 and 3.9 and I mentioned the Expekt prices before but I’ll use other bookies for my recommended bets.

++ Match Odds – Chelsea @ 5.5 on Bet365/Skybet (1pt) – more on Betfair

++ Match Odds – Draw @ 3.6 on Bet365/Boyles/Stan James (½pt) – more on Betfair

1½pts staked.

Roundup: Weekend 27th April 2009

Finally a winning weekend, but then probability says it had to come at some stage. The Saturday bet was void as Everton win by 2 corners but both Sunday games were 4-2 away wins and so both handicap winners which was nice. Figures still are very poor and hope to dig back into them in the last few weeks of the season.

I’m going to bet on the Barcelona v Chelsea game and will write that up later and will oppose Barca on Tuesday and then probably again on Saturday. Real Madrid have been amazing since Ramos took over and another win at Sevilla proved it again even with a weakish side.

132 Bets (126 points staked) :: 62 won – 79 lost -8 void – 2 half void :: -24.09 points

* This does not include the 3 antepost bets.

“If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Chico Marx

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Weekend 25th April 2009 part II

Had time to add the write-ups now. Watched Valencia v Barcelona last night and it could be a good pointer to the Chelsea clash. Henry and Toure were the only 2 possible starters no on the pitch so it was a full strength team and Valencia deserved the draw and are possibly the best team Barcelona have played this season, taking into account the form Valencia are in. Chelsea at 5.7 on Betfair looks a massive price.

Recreativo de Huelva v Real Mallorca (Spain Primera: Sun 5pm local time)

Mallorca play the Sevilla, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Villarreal in their last 4 games and although they are close to being safe I think a win here would confirm it. They would not want to go into those last 4 games needing to get a win. In the last 10 matches only Barcelona and Real Madrid have taken more than the 21 Mallorca managed. If we contrast this to Recre we can see they have taken just 6 from a possible 30. They also have the second worst home record in the league and come into this game on the back of 7 losses in the last 8 games. They do have home advantage but the transformation in Mallorca since they started the second half of the season has been amazing and the only 2 losses in 13 games have come at Bilbao and Osasuna, both of which are hard places to go. They may well win but I’ll play safe with DNB.

++ Draw no bet – Real Mallorca @ 2.25 on Stan James (1pt)

Sevilla v Real Madrid (Spain Primera: Sun 5pm local time)

Sevilla have lost in consecutive games to Getafe, Valencia and Barcelona and now face Real Madrid. Before that they were on a good run but I don’t there’s a whopping 18 points between them and Real Madrid in the table. All this season you just hear about Barcelona and how great they are but a win for Madrid would put them 5 points behind and ready to host Barcelona at home next weekend. Schuster didn’t last long as Madrid manager this season and it was his 14th game and 4-3 home loss against Sevilla that ended it. They took 26 points from those 14 games and then lost to Barcelona in the first game that Ramos took charge. Since then they have won 16/17 league matches and drawn the other. That’s an amazing 49 from a possible 51 points. In the same period Barcelona have taken 43 from a possible 51 so you can see what an achievements Madrid’s run has been. They have been calling Madrid lucky etc but that can’t be down to luck. Sevilla have had more rumours about next season as to whether Jimenez will stay or go and who will replace him. With Ramos back in Sevilla for the first time since he left it promises to be a fiery affair.

++ Asian Handicap – Real Madrid (0) @ 2.02 on Bet365 (1pt) – 2.04 on Ladbrokes/2.03 on VC

2 points staked, alongside the other 2 staked on the weekend so far

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

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