Weekend 16th May 2009 (part II)

A loser today but another top v bottom game in Spain tomorrow where I think there is value.

Sporting Gijon v Malaga (Spain Primera: Sat 5pm local time)

I should have been going to this match but have somewhere else to be. I would hope Gijon can win but my head says they don’t really deserve to be favourite and the 3 available for Malaga looks good value. 20 points separate these teams and while Malaga are in the group of 5 teams separated by 5 points from 4th to 8th Gijon are 3rd from bottom and have had a terrible run of form losing 7 of their last 8 games. Taking the bottom line Sporting have lost 10 of 17 home matches and Malaga have the 4th best away record in the league with 7 wins from 17 matches. Those figures would suggest evens is around the right price and because it’s a must win game for Gijon the bookies seem to have sided with them. I’d be happy to lose my money if gijon win but really its too big a price on Malaga as they come into this on the back of 4 away wins in the last 6 as well as all the other factors.

++ Win Market – Malaga @ 3 on Ladbrokes (1pt)

1 point staked to add to the 1 staked on the weekend so far

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

16 May, 09 | Posted in: Tips | Comments Closed

Weekend 16th May 2009

Didn’t have time to look at the games yesterday and will look at corner bets in the 3 premier league games that are played on Sunday and Monday later as well as another possible bet in Spain. I know it’s late but there is a bet for tonight.

Deportivo La Coruna v Getafe (Spain Primera: Sat 8pm local time)

I would love Getafe to lose this game as Sporting are in trouble down the bottom and they are one of their main rivals. Travelling to the Riazor is no easy task and only Atletico Madrid, Sevilla and Sporting Gijon (amazingly) have managed to win there. Depor have won 10/17 home matches this season and with Atletico Madrid and Valencia meeting this weekend a win for them would put them level on points with Valencia in 4th place and in with a decent shout of a champions league berth.  Getafe are at the other end of the table and although they couldn’t end up in the bottom 3 this weekend they could be sucked closer. They have won just 3 times away from home this season and lost 8/17 matches and 5 of the last 6. Evens looks a good price to take and by looking at the Asian Handicap price it’s possible to beat the win market.
++ Asian Handicap – Deportivo (-0.5) @ 2.08 on Bet365 (1pt)

1 point staked on the weekend so far

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

| Posted in: Tips | Comments Closed

Roundup: Weekend 9th May 2009

As we were after a break even weekend. The corner bet was spot on 12 so the bet was voided, Mallorca were ahead against Sevilla before losing 3-1 and then Almeria did what Sevilla did against Gijon coming back from a goal down to win 3-1.

Not much change in Spain at the bottom as Getafe were the only winners and managed to move up 3 places. It really is tough to call and fingers crossed Gijon can do something but they will need to win 2 of the last 3 games as their goal difference is so poor. Valencia were very impressive bating Real Madrid on Saturday but will miss Marchena and Silva next weekend when they visit Atletico Madrid and that promises to be a great match.

Will be back then.

“If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Chico Marx

11 May, 09 | Posted in: Roundups | Comments Closed

Weekend 9th May 2009

I was sad to see Barcelona go through in midweek and had to endure rubbish about a victory for football over anti-football. For some reason the fact that Chelsea were able to defend against Barcelona meant they were a very negative team. All it showed up was how weak the Spanish league was again, especially after Barca mauled Real Madrid 6-2 last weekend. If Henry is out for the rest of the season that would be a huge blow for them as he has managed to perform in the big games this season.

Fulham v Aston Villa (Premier League : Sat 3pm local time)

Aston Villa are the corner kings! Their home games average a league high 13.9 corners and away it’s 13, tied first with Hull. If we remove big 4 matches we find Craven Cottage second to Villa Park in corners so even with such a high line we look to have odds in our favour. Of the non-big 4 matches at Fulham 8/13 were over 12 and one was 12 exactly and for Villa away it’s similar with 8/13 games over 12 corners. The line is high at 12 but still we would have won 16/26 times, which is odds of 1.625 so I’m happy to take 1.9.

++ Asian Total Corners – Over 12 @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)

Sevilla v Real Mallorca (Spain Primera: Sat 8pm local time)

I backed Sevilla on the reverse fixture earlier in the season and they drew 0-0 and lost me money. Mallorca look to be safe now but their form is fantastic and I think they have the luxury of going into this game relaxed. 4 wins in the last 5 games and just 1 defeat in the past 13 means only Barcelona and Real Madrid have taken more points in that period. Sevilla got back to winning ways last Saturday at Villarreal but that was mainly down to a fantastic strike from Kanoute after they were down to 10 men. In their last 7 home games Barcelona, Betis, Santander and Getafe have all left with 3 points and the speculation around Jimenez as manager continues. All in all the win bet looks best simply as the price is so big. In terms of the Asian handicap Sevilla have won at home by more than 1 goal just 3 times in 17 games so Mallorca +1 @ 1.98 looks very solid.
++ Win Market – Real Mallorca @ 7 on Stan James (1pt) – more on Betfair

Almeria v Sporting Gijón (Spain Primera: Sun 5pm local time)

I feel bad backing this one and going against my local team but have too. Almeria are solid at home with equal 3rd most wins and Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Santander, La Coruna, Real Madrid, Sevilla and Valencia have avoided defeat there and 6 of those 7 are in the top 7 in the league. Negredo has been on great form and is surely destined for a big summer move. Gijon badly need a win and did play well last weekend but that was the first time in a while and have lost 11 of the last 13 games. Evens looks a great price

++ Win Market – Almeria @ 2 on Bet365 (1pt) – more on Betfair
La Coruna to win at Recre is very tempting as is Espanyol to win at Atletico and I believe there is good value in their 5 price. I may come back for that.
3 points staked on the weekend so far.

Good luck in whatever bets you do

Roundup: Weekend 2nd May 2009

A win today for Real Mallorca meant a small profit on the weekend. The corner bet was a loser with Chelsea having just one corner more than Fulham and then Millwall lost 2-0. Glad I swerved the Malaga bet as they went down 2-0 but Mallorca continue on their run and won 2-1 against Getafe.

Sporting Gijon were robbed of a much needed win by a 90th minute Bilabo equaliser and a win for Recre and another for Espanyol means there’s a bit of movement at the bottom and a the bottom 4 are separated by just 1 point, with Osasuna 2 points ahead and Betis possibly another if they lose to Atletico tonight.

The small profit on the Bareclona and Chelsea game is included as we had a half point on the draw. Interesting second leg in prospect and the smaller pitch will make for a totally different match and no Puyol or Marquez is a big boost for Chelsea.

136 Bets (131 points staked) :: 44 won – 82 lost – 8 void – 2 half void :: -23.39 points

* This does not include the 3 antepost bets.

“If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Chico Marx