The Simple Weekend (Corners)

In the heatmap                 you can see stats for the current season but an idea might be to show stats for season using the same grids to see how they have changed. For example the table below shows the number of corners each team has had at home in the Premier League since 2010-11

Team101111121213131414151516
Arsenal11.511.811.610.611.811.4
Bournemouth0000010.8
Burnley00009.30
Chelsea11.210.511.910.710.812.3
Crystal Palace00010.710.911.7
Everton11.49.811.611.910.111.6
Hull0009.310.20
Leicester000011.610.3
Liverpool11.212.111.911.110.712.1
Man City1212.111.312.412.811.9
Man United9.812.310.89.79.79.3
Southampton0010.910.210.110.5
Stoke10.911.5109.311.29.9
Sunderland9.810.111.210.710.110.9
Swansea011.29.710.79.19
Tottenham12.811.311.810.812.212
Watford0000010
West Brom10.212.111.69.29.111.1
West Ham11.8011.611.112.310.5

 

Only teams currently in the Premier League are included and it’s hard to get a decent read on the table and that is why the heatmap is so useful. Manchester City look to be a team with high counts and Manchester United one with low.

The Simple Weekend (London Clubs)

The big match this weekend in the Premier League is the Saturday tea time clash between Arsenal and Chelsea. Whoever loses will feel the pressure as Liverpool have beaten both of these teams away so the loser will look like they can’t compete with the big boys.

The big 3 in London are Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal and they are building up a big rivalry as was seen in the game last season when Chelsea beat Spurs and presented the title to Leicester. These teams have all been there or thereabouts in the last 5 seasons aside from the Chelsea implosion last season as shown in the table below.

Season Arsenal Chelsea Spurs
2011-12 2 10 3
2012-13 3 1 5
2013-14 3 4 6
2014-15 4 3 5
2015-16 3 6 4

Finishing position of Arsenal Chelsea and Spurs in the last 5 seasons

There are have been 30 London derbies between these 3 teams in the last 5 seasons and there may be some patterns amongst the results.

Corners

The average (mean) corners is 10.7, the median is 11 and so is the mode. The full list of total corners is 16, 5, 11, 12, 11, 14, 11, 11, 12, 12, 10, 11, 7, 8, 9, 14, 9, 9, 8, 13, 8, 7, 4, 20, 15, 11, 13, 8, 13, 10.

Yellow Cards

The average (mean) yellow cars is 4.9 with the mode and median being 4. That crazy end of season game at Stamford Bridge had 12 yellows and the second highest total in these 5 seasons was 9 in Spurs other away game at Arsenal last season.

Goals

The full list of goals is 3, 8, 2, 7, 0, 0, 3, 6, 7, 3, 3, 4, 1, 6, 4, 0, 2, 1, 0, 3, 8, 3, 2, 2, 4, 4, 1, 0, 2, 2 and here the median and mode are both 3 with the mean average 3.0. 12 of the matches have been draws, 13 home wins and just 5 away wins, an average of 1 per season.

Summary

So 3 goals, 11 corners and 4-5 yellow cards sounds pretty much bang on what the lines will be so nothing too far from the norm.

There are lots of great offers around this weekend such as Sky Sports Betting so make sure you check the options. You can see the full stats in the main or corner consoles.

The Simple Midweek (Atletico v Barca)

Slipping this one in as did some research on Barcelona hosting Atletico Madrid in the late evening partidazo. Can’t beat a game of football that starts at 10pm local time on a Wednesday night.

2011-12 was the last time that the top 3 places in Spain weren’t filled by Atleti, Real Madrid and Barcelona and it’s likely this dominance will continue this season as it is hard to see any team that can build a sustained challenge. Sevilla and Villarreal have both changed coaches and time will tell if they are both downgrades.

In the last 4 seasons there have been 6 matches each season between these big 3 which gives us 24 matches and worth seeing if any patterns have emerged in those games.

Corners

Looking at the number of corners in these 24 matches the values are 9, 7, 14, 5, 4, 5, 12, 6, 10, 13, 7, 9, 11, 17, 5, 4, 12, 8, 7, 7, 14, 14, 6, 11

The average (mean) corners is 9.0, the median is 8.5 and the mode is 7.

Yellow Cards

Average (mean) of 6.75 yellows with the mode and median being 7 cards. The full numbers were 6, 6, 2, 10, 8, 3, 9, 7, 5, 5, 7, 8, 8, 11, 7, 9, 6, 11, 5, 7, 3, 5, 10, 4

Goals

3 goals is the mean, mode and median average for all these games. 15/24 matches have had 3 or 4 goals. Total numbers were 4, 2, 5, 3, 3, 3, 2, 7, 4, 0, 3, 1, 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 1, 3, 4, 2, 3.

You can see the full stats in the main or corner consoles.

The Simple Weekend (Who scores first in the Bundesliga)

The weekend kicked off with a bang with the Premier League clash at Stamford Bridge where Chelsea lost 2-1 to Liverpool and it’s tough getting used to it all starting so early.

Last week we looked at how the outcome of a match is affected by which team scores first in the Premier League. This weekend we have some stats for the Bundesliga for the last 3 seasons.

One thing I noticed was that in the season 2013-14 there were just 13 0-0 draws in the Bundesliga which is so low. It doubled the season after and last season was at 24 in 306 games.

Which team scores first

SeasonMatchesHome 1st0-0Away 1st
2014-1530656%9%35%
2015-1630650%8%42%
Total61253%8%39%

The home team scored first in 56% of games in 2014-15 and this dropped to 50% last season. There was a big difference in the away teams with them scoring first in 35% of the games in 2014-15 and this increasing to 42% in 2015-16

What happens when the home team scores first

SeasonMatchesHome WinDrawAway Win
2014-1517175%17%8%
2015-1615270%18%12%
Total32373%17%10%

When the home team scores first they go on to win over 70% of the matches and the away team comes back to win in around 10% (8% in 2014-15 and 12% in 2015-16). Around 17% of the games end up draws.

What happens when the away team scores first

SeasonMatchesHome WinDrawAway Win
2014-1510716%23%61%
2015-1613022%15%63%
Total23721%19%60%

When the away team scores first we have big changes over the two seasons. The home team came back in 16% of matches in 2014-15 and 22% last season. In seasons the away team went on to win in over 60% of the matches.

What all this does not take into account is when the goal is scored in the game which could be worth looking into in more depth.

The Simple Weekend (Who scores first)

Good to see the full programme back this weekend and big start to Saturday with the Manchester derby which has had a serious upgrade this season and Pep v Ibra is a good matchup.

Got an email recently that said

I wonder if you have any stats on first goal scored in a game:

or

Anything thing relating to who scored the 1st goal ? AND HOW IT EFFECTS THE FINAL OUTCOME / RESULT

Not something we have looked at before and should have some data for this from the top leagues in Europe but this week we’ll just look at the Premier League.  First step is to see which team scores first in the Premier League.

SeasonMatchesHome 1st0-0Away 1st
2012-1338051%9%39%
2013-1438054%7%39%
2014-1538054%8%37%
2015-1638052%8%40%
Total152053%8%39%

As you can see the home team scores first in around half the matches and the away team in about 4/10 and a little less than 1/10 matches ends 0-0.

What happens when the home team scores first

SeasonMatchesHome WinDrawAway Win
2012-1319569%20%11%
2013-1420576%15%10%
2014-1520773%18%9%
2015-1619671%19%9%
Total80372%18%10%

When the home team scores first in the past 4 seasons they have on average won 72% of the matches. What is interesting is that they have only drawn 18% of those matches and then lost 10% which is quite high based on the draw figure.

What happens when the away team scores first

SeasonMatchesHome WinDrawAway Win
2012-1315021%23%57%
2013-1414816%14%70%
2014-1514215%18%68%
2015-1615211%24%64%
Total59216%20%65%

When the away team scores first the home team only comes back to win the game 16% of the time. 20% of the matches end in a draw and the home team goes on to win the game around 2/3 of the time.