The Simple Weekend (Who scores first in the Bundesliga)

The weekend kicked off with a bang with the Premier League clash at Stamford Bridge where Chelsea lost 2-1 to Liverpool and it’s tough getting used to it all starting so early.

Last week we looked at how the outcome of a match is affected by which team scores first in the Premier League. This weekend we have some stats for the Bundesliga for the last 3 seasons.

One thing I noticed was that in the season 2013-14 there were just 13 0-0 draws in the Bundesliga which is so low. It doubled the season after and last season was at 24 in 306 games.

Which team scores first

SeasonMatchesHome 1st0-0Away 1st
2014-1530656%9%35%
2015-1630650%8%42%
Total61253%8%39%

The home team scored first in 56% of games in 2014-15 and this dropped to 50% last season. There was a big difference in the away teams with them scoring first in 35% of the games in 2014-15 and this increasing to 42% in 2015-16

What happens when the home team scores first

SeasonMatchesHome WinDrawAway Win
2014-1517175%17%8%
2015-1615270%18%12%
Total32373%17%10%

When the home team scores first they go on to win over 70% of the matches and the away team comes back to win in around 10% (8% in 2014-15 and 12% in 2015-16). Around 17% of the games end up draws.

What happens when the away team scores first

SeasonMatchesHome WinDrawAway Win
2014-1510716%23%61%
2015-1613022%15%63%
Total23721%19%60%

When the away team scores first we have big changes over the two seasons. The home team came back in 16% of matches in 2014-15 and 22% last season. In seasons the away team went on to win in over 60% of the matches.

What all this does not take into account is when the goal is scored in the game which could be worth looking into in more depth.

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