The weekend kicked off with a bang with the Premier League clash at Stamford Bridge where Chelsea lost 2-1 to Liverpool and it’s tough getting used to it all starting so early.
Last week we looked at how the outcome of a match is affected by which team scores first in the Premier League. This weekend we have some stats for the Bundesliga for the last 3 seasons.
One thing I noticed was that in the season 2013-14 there were just 13 0-0 draws in the Bundesliga which is so low. It doubled the season after and last season was at 24 in 306 games.
Which team scores first
Season Matches Home 1st 0-0 Away 1st
2014-15 306 56% 9% 35%
2015-16 306 50% 8% 42%
Total 612 53% 8% 39%
The home team scored first in 56% of games in 2014-15 and this dropped to 50% last season. There was a big difference in the away teams with them scoring first in 35% of the games in 2014-15 and this increasing to 42% in 2015-16
What happens when the home team scores first
Season Matches Home Win Draw Away Win
2014-15 171 75% 17% 8%
2015-16 152 70% 18% 12%
Total 323 73% 17% 10%
When the home team scores first they go on to win over 70% of the matches and the away team comes back to win in around 10% (8% in 2014-15 and 12% in 2015-16). Around 17% of the games end up draws.
What happens when the away team scores first
Season Matches Home Win Draw Away Win
2014-15 107 16% 23% 61%
2015-16 130 22% 15% 63%
Total 237 21% 19% 60%
When the away team scores first we have big changes over the two seasons. The home team came back in 16% of matches in 2014-15 and 22% last season. In seasons the away team went on to win in over 60% of the matches.
What all this does not take into account is when the goal is scored in the game which could be worth looking into in more depth.