This week and next weekend will be difficult ones to post on. Apologies for that and hopefully back to normal on 9th December.
The Simple Weekend (Tweets)
Always nice to get to Friday and it’s a big weekend for football. Bet365 tweeted the big games and it is impressive
Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray
Dortmund vs Bayern
Man Utd vs Arsenal
Leeds vs Newcastle
Atlético vs Real
AC vs Inter
This weekend. 😍 pic.twitter.com/5LuC8mjrEo
— bet365 (@bet365) November 17, 2016
On the subject of twitter we send out stats on Twitter highlighting games that pass a certain threshold. We get some nice tweets in return but also sometimes just unhelpful stuff like
@simplesocstats Such a horrible way of pricing that market. Why?
— Agent of Truth (@AgentOfTruth) October 29, 2016
All the tweets we send are just advice and for users to check them out further. Sadly we don’t have prices for all the tweets we have sent but there have been 390 tweets for over/under 2.5 bets and we have prices for all of these. We took the average price from football-data.co.uk for these as that seemed a better guide of whether they can be profitable or not. Over the 390 bets the loss has been 3.32 points which really is less than a loss of 1% of the total stakes. Using best prices or just Betfair you’d assume a decent profit could be made.
So really when people day it’s a horrible way to price a market it’s not necessarily the case and worth looking into the results first.
There have been 13/21 winning bets this season for a profit of 0.93pts. If we were to use maximum price then the profit would increase to 1.95pts with each winning bet on average having an 0.08 improvement in profit. There have been 238 winning bets so if they all had an 0.05pt improvement, so less than the average we saw above, then it’s an 11.9pt increase in profit so it seems as if backing these blindly at good prices will produce a profit.
Will get a full list of these bets for next week.
The Simple Weekend (Internationals)
The international break is always a barren time for football but Brazil did beat Argentina last night in a decent game.
The European qualification is so diluted that you rarely get a decent match between big teams.
There are no international stats on the site and was looking round for international ratings and found an article on the Pinnacle website that goes through international ratings before Euro 2016 started and is quite interesting. Another article on the Rostrum goes into FIFA rankings and compares them to ELO to see which could be better.
The lower leagues all have matches and we have stats for those as per usual and will be back with a bigger weekender next time.