Stat Analysis 2017-18 season

With the new Premier League season underway, everyone is anxious to forecast where their favorite team will end up. Although it’s still early, many people are beginning to predict the final table. One of the best ways to do this is by using the soccer pythagorean theorem, as described here.

This model essentially uses goals scored and goals conceded to give a team an expected points per game. This can then be used to forecast how a team will fare over the rest of the season. In this article, we are going to go back to the 2017-18 EPL season to analyze the effectiveness of the formula.


In order to do this, we are going to retrospectively perform a mid-season prediction. Basically, we are going to take data from the first 19 games (half the season) of the Premier League, and use that to develop each team’s expected points per game. We will then use the expected points per game value, extrapolate it to the final 19 games of the season, and add that to the initial 19 games, to get a final prediction for the 38 game season.
(If you are curious as to how this whole process works, I suggest reading the previous articles, in which the overall method was outlined)
When this process was performed, I found that, on average, the expected points and final points differed by an average of 4.8 points. That means that this model was able to accurately predict the final standings for each Premier League team with an error of just 0.126 points per game.
In fact, 9 of the teams had expected points and actual points that differed by under 2 points at the end of the season. The model accurately predicted West Ham, Crystal Palace, and Newcastle to climb out of the relegation battle, and also predicted Stoke City’s late struggles.
In this study there were just 6 teams that had a prediction error of 6 points or higher. However, of those teams, 4 of them experienced managerial changes during the season. This would explain the unpredictability of their results, as new staff means new playing styles and new results. When these 3 teams are negated in the study, the average points disparity drops down to just 3.98 points over the course of the entire season.


So, what does this mean for this season? Well, once we get close to a reasonable enough sample size (roughly 10 games, I’d say), we’ll be able to accurately predict the fates of teams in leagues around the world. We’ll be able to judge which teams can stay at the top, which teams will have a late surge, and which teams will be fighting to stay up. It’s an exciting way to track what’s sure to be an exciting season.

Author: Nikhil Mehta

Champions League Bets 2018-19 Matchday 1

Every year we have a little system in the champions league based on how teams from different countries have performed against each other. It’s a bit of data and a bit of feeling but has often done well so we’ll track it over the 6 matchdays.

18.09 – Inter v Tottenham: Home win @2.625 Generally
18.09 – Liverpool v Paris SG: Draw @3.5 Generally
18.09 – Schalke v FC Porto: Home win @2.4 Generally
19.09 – Valencia v Juventus: Home win @4.75 Generally

In the system we have gone with a draw in the big one and we didn’t expect to see Liverpool as a favourite against PSG. Would have backed Liverpool based on their form but with PSG being a bigger price surely they are the value as the game looks a bit of a coin toss with so much attacking on display.

Europe’s Professional Football Leagues: A Layman’s Guide

Despite the fact that soccer has often be thought of as a British game, Europe has certainly caught football fever far beyond the English Channel. With the likes of France, Germany, Spain and Italy all having their own major professional football leagues, keeping up with which is which and what you can expect from the teams and the players is a struggle for more casual fans. Whether you’re looking for a quick overview or you’re looking to get involved with European soccer, we’re taking it back to basics and exploring Europe’s best leagues, below.

Premier League

The Premier League first formed in 1992 when 20 of England’s best teams came together to play a league of their own. With the top four teams qualifying for the UEFA Championships and the fifth qualifying for the UEFA Europa League, it remains the most important domestic league in the UK. From the introduction of World Cup goalscorer Harry Kane to the fame of Newcastle’s investment in Michael Owen, the Premier League has seen its fair share of highlights and remains one of the most watched leagues in all of Europe to date.

Ligue 1

Ligue 1, also known as ‘League 1’, is France’s answer to the Premier League. In fact, it even works on the same 20-club promotion and relegation system as the aforementioned British offering. Teams will play 38 matches each, split between home and away matches in a face -to-face in the leading football competition in the country. Ligue 1 has provided us with the successful AS Saint-Etienne, and Paris Saint-Germain, current league champions.

La Liga

As one of the top leagues in Europe, La Liga has attracted millions of viewers from all over the globe. With the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid dominating the league table on a regular basis whilst showcasing extraordinary skill, it’s easy to get caught up in the Spanish alternative to the Premier League. Even shock losers Betis aren’t to be ignored, with the potential to soar through the rankings with a few good goals on their belt.

Bundesliga

Bundesliga is the German equivalent to the other domestic leagues on this list and features some of the best teams Europe has on offer. From Dortmund to RB Leipzig, the Bundesliga has offered the Europa league some star teams worthy of a place amongst the ranks. This season’s champions are currently Bayern, but Wolfsburg and Hertha certainly aren’t far behind. The league even has one of the highest stadium attendance records worldwide, a worthy title to hold considering that football has quickly become a TV-based sport for most.

Serie A

Serie A is the Italian equivalent of the aforementioned leagues, playing in a round-robin format against one another twice. Serie A has seen format changes aplenty, with the league switching between 18 clubs in 1929-1934, through to 16 in 1934, 20 in 1946, 21 in 1947, 20 in 1948, 18 in 1952, 16 in 1967, 18 in 1988 and finally, 20 in 2004 which is the state it remains in to this day. The table leaders Juventus have dominated the league with 34 titles to their name and with the recent signing of Cristiano Ronaldo, it is clear that Juventus will continue to dominate the league for years to come.

Despite being the domestic leagues, the Premier League, Ligue 1, La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga offer millions of fans some nail-biting gameplay every single year. Patching up the time between the UEFA Championships and the UEFA Europa League, domestic football gives local fans the chance to stand behind their favourite teams and players and cheer them all the way to victory for the chance to get their hands on European championship cups. Which will you watch?