Happy New Year and Happy London Derby too!

Hope everyone had a nice break and the office is back open here so we can deal with any issues or queries you have. Its Spurs v Chelsea tonight and we posted something a while back about the London derbies that is repeated below


The big match this weekend in the Premier League is the Saturday tea time clash between Arsenal and Chelsea. Whoever loses will feel the pressure as Liverpool have beaten both of these teams away so the loser will look like they can’t compete with the big boys.

The big 3 in London are Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal and they are building up a big rivalry as was seen in the game last season when Chelsea beat Spurs and presented the title to Leicester. These teams have all been there or thereabouts in the last 5 seasons aside from the Chelsea implosion last season as shown in the table below.

Season Arsenal Chelsea Spurs
2011-12 2 10 3
2012-13 3 1 5
2013-14 3 4 6
2014-15 4 3 5
2015-16 3 6 4

Finishing position of Arsenal Chelsea and Spurs in the last 5 seasons

There are have been 30 London derbies between these 3 teams in the last 5 seasons and there may be some patterns amongst the results.

Corners

The average (mean) corners is 10.7, the median is 11 and so is the mode. The full list of total corners is 16, 5, 11, 12, 11, 14, 11, 11, 12, 12, 10, 11, 7, 8, 9, 14, 9, 9, 8, 13, 8, 7, 4, 20, 15, 11, 13, 8, 13, 10.

Yellow Cards

The average (mean) yellow cars is 4.9 with the mode and median being 4. That crazy end of season game at Stamford Bridge had 12 yellows and the second highest total in these 5 seasons was 9 in Spurs other away game at Arsenal last season.

Goals

The full list of goals is 3, 8, 2, 7, 0, 0, 3, 6, 7, 3, 3, 4, 1, 6, 4, 0, 2, 1, 0, 3, 8, 3, 2, 2, 4, 4, 1, 0, 2, 2 and here the median and mode are both 3 with the mean average 3.0. 12 of the matches have been draws, 13 home wins and just 5 away wins, an average of 1 per season.

Summary

So 3 goals, 11 corners and 4-5 yellow cards sounds pretty much bang on what the lines will be so nothing too far from the norm.

Tweeted stats for week ending 12th April

Realised that last week I included matches played on the Monday in the stats round up which is wrong so have started this weeks round up on Tuesday. Positive results and the over and under bets, which are the only ones we have prices for, have both been profitable. Come the end of the season I’ll do some analysis to compare the prices available against the implied odds to see if any games could be filtered out where the value was not that big.

 

Results summary here and last weeks results below

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
7-4Under 2.5 Today - Monaco (h) 16/19 + Montpellier (a) 11/14 = 27/33 (81%) - implied odds of 1.231.610-0Win0.610.61
8-4Under 2.5 Today - Granada (h) 11/14 + Celta Vigo (a) 11/15 = 22/29 (76%) - implied odds of 1.321.591-1Win0.591.2
8-4Over 2.5 Today - Raith Rovers (h) 14/16 + Cowdenbeath (a) 12/16 = 26/32 (81%) - implied odds of 1.231.631-3Win0.631.83
10-4Under 2.5 Today - Crucero del Norte (h) 4/4 + Atletico Rafaela (a) 3/4 = 7/8 (88%) - implied odds of 1.1401-1Win01.83
10-4Over 2.5 Today - Perth Glory (h) 11/12 + Sydney FC (a) 6/11 = 17/23 (73%) - implied odds of 1.3700-3Win01.83
10-4BTTS + win Today - FC Dallas (h) 13/22 + Colorado (a) 8/19 = 21/41 (51%) - implied odds of 1.9800-4Lost01.83
11-4BTTS Today - San Lorenzo (h) 2/4 + Independiente (a) 4/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-0Lost01.83
11-4Under 2.5 Today - Southend (h) 18/20 + Tranmere (a) 13/20 = 31/40 (78%) - implied odds of 1.291.61-0Win0.62.43
11-4Over 2.5 Today - San Lorenzo (h) 3/4 + Independiente (a) 3/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-0Lost02.43
11-4Over 2.5 Today - Bayern Munich (h) 10/17 + Eintracht Frankfurt (a) 11/13 = 21/30 (72%) - implied odds of 1.391.343-0Win0.362.79
11-4Win HT/FT Today - Racing Club (h) 3/4 + Huracan (a) 2/4 = 5/8 (63%) - implied odds of 1.6002-0Lost02.79
11-4BTTS + win Today - Racing Club (h) 2/4 + Huracan (a) 2/4 = 4/8 (50%) - implied odds of 2.0002-0Lost02.79
12-4BTTS Today - Boca Juniors (h) 2/4 + Nueva Chicago (a) 4/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3300-0Lost02.79
12-4BTTS Today - Groningen (h) 9/14 + Cambuur (a) 12/14 = 21/28 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3303-2Win02.79
12-4BTTS Today - Argentinos Juniors (h) 2/4 + River Plate (a) 4/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-2Win02.79
12-4Under 2.5 Today - Torino (h) 11/14 + Roma (a) 13/17 = 24/31 (78%) - implied odds of 1.291.61-1Win0.63.39
12-4BTTS + win Today - Boca Juniors (h) 2/4 + Nueva Chicago (a) 2/4 = 4/8 (50%) - implied odds of 2.0000-0Lost03.39

Tweeted stats for week ending 6th April

9/12 bets were winners. Full results are shown here  and it would be interesting to know prices of some of the other bets such as Win HT/FT based on the success.

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
2-4Under 2.5 Today - US Avellino (h) 12/17 + Modena (a) 13/16 = 25/33 (76%) - implied odds of 1.321.521-0Win0.520.52
3-4BTTS Today - Sarmiento de Junín (h) 4/4 + Belgrano de Cordoba (a) 6/12 = 10/16 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-3Win00.52
3-4Under 2.5 Today - Monaco (h) 15/18 + Saint Etienne (a) 11/15 = 26/33 (78%) - implied odds of 1.281.451-1Win0.450.97
3-4Over 2.5 Today - Sarmiento de Junín (h) 4/4 + Belgrano de Cordoba (a) 8/12 = 12/16 (83%) - implied odds of 1.2001-3Win00.97
3-4Over 2.5 Today - Oldham (h) 14/19 + Bristol City (a) 13/19 = 27/38 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.921-1Lost-1-0.03
4-4Over 2.5 Today - Dordrecht (h) 9/14 + Heracles Almelo (a) 11/14 = 20/28 (71%) - implied odds of 1.401.642-3Win0.640.61
4-4Over 2.5 Today - Leon (h) 10/13 + Queretaro (a) 9/14 = 19/27 (71%) - implied odds of 1.4204-5Win00.61
5-4BTTS Today - Bursaspor (h) 9/12 + Kayseri Erciyesspor (a) 11/13 = 20/25 (80%) - implied odds of 1.2503-0Lost00.61
5-4Over 2.5 Today - Galatasaray (h) 12/15 + Kardemir Karabukspor (a) 8/12 = 20/27 (73%) - implied odds of 1.361.694-2Win0.691.3
6-4BTTS Today - Dartford (h) 17/20 + Barnet (a) 15/21 = 32/41 (78%) - implied odds of 1.2800-1Lost01.3
6-4Under 2.5 Today - Brondby (h) 9/11 + FC Copenhagen (a) 9/10 = 18/21 (86%) - implied odds of 1.1600-0Win01.3
6-4Over 2.5 Today - Brentford (h) 14/20 + Nottingham Forest (a) 15/20 = 29/40 (73%) - implied odds of 1.381.652-2Win0.651.95

Tweeted stats for week ending 29th March

A short week but a winning one. All 6 bets were winners.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
24-3Over 2.5 Today - Oldham (h) 13/18 + Rochdale (a) 14/18 = 27/36 (75%) - implied odds of 1.331.963-0Win0.960.96
28-3BTTS Today - Perth Glory (h) 10/11 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 7/11 = 17/22 (77%) - implied odds of 1.2903-2Win00.96
28-3BTTS Today - Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (h) 9/12 + Independiente (a) 9/12 = 18/24 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3302-2Win00.96
28-3Over 2.5 Today - Perth Glory (h) 10/11 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 6/11 = 16/22 (73%) - implied odds of 1.3803-2Win00.96
28-3Over 2.5 Today - Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (h) 9/12 + Independiente (a) 8/12 = 17/24 (71%) - implied odds of 1.4102-2Win00.96
28-3BTTS + win Today - Perth Glory (h) 5/11 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 5/11 = 10/22 (45%) - implied odds of 2.2003-2Win00.96

 

 

WC2014 day 32 – The morning after

Yesterdays results

NONE

Results not added

09.07.2014 – Netherlands v Argentina – DRAW @ 3.21 with Pinnacle WON +2.21

5/26 :: -9.19

I have been on the move the last few days and was unable to add to this. The final and 3rd/4th place playoff would have been draw selections I am pretty sure so they would have meant another points profit but overall disappointing. I’ll sum up properly in a few days and give the plans for the upcoming season.