Mallorca v Zaragoza
Mallorca lie in 6th but at home are 6 from 6 and have score 16 goals and let in just 2. Zaragoza have lost 4 of their 6 away games and drawn the other 2. Odds aren’t that great but I still think they are better than their actual chance of winning. Best price on their win is 1.85 but choose the asian handicap (-0.5) on Bet365 which is the same as a win and you get 1.92
++ Asian Handicap – Real Mallorca @ 1.92 on Bet365 (1pt)

Tenerife v Sporting Gijon
Gijon are my local team and I’ve seen every home game this far. After they beat Mallorca 4-1 at home it was clear they are a serious team this season and have managed to gel together. The goalie and 3 of the 4 defenders are new this season and they have been the difference along with Rivera the holding midfielder. They lie in 7th place and in their next 7 games will play 5 of the bottom 6 teams in the league so could really pick up some points. Away from home their record is won 1, drawn 3 and lost 2 but they have visited barcelona, la coruna and valencia. Last away game they drew 0-0 in Xerez but the team suffered severe flu and had only 5 regular starters including the absence of the spanish under 21 left back (Canella) and Castro who plays left wing and for me is the star of the team now. The websites of the teams give pretty accurate info and I know they are both at full strength. 5/2 looks massive for Sporting and I am prepared to wager on that rather than go for the handicap bet
++ Win Market – Sporting Gijon @ 3.5 on Coral (1pt)

What is the best way to bet this? I think I will buy his goal minutes at 17-20 on Sporting Index but Ladbrokes offer 6/1 on him being first goalscorer and taking e/w you get 1/3 odds on him scoring any of the first 5 goals.

This isn’t a normal bet for the blog but I think it’s a nice one to kick off the season.

++ First Goalscorer: Samuel Eto’o – 6/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/2 pt e/w)

I am re-designing the site itself now to give certain things more prominence.

There are some strong stats namely:
In the 1999/2000 season Kevin Phillips won this and in the 9 years since then it has been won by a player from the big 4.

If we look at positions 1-4 in the last 5 years only the following have been out of the big 4:
08/09 Robinho equal 4th with 15
07/08 Santa Cruz 4th with 19
06/07 McCarthy 2nd with 18/Viduka 4th with 14
05/06 Bent 3rd with 18/Keane equal 4th with 16
04/05 Johnson 2nd with 21
So in 23 player who finished 1-4 (including ties) 7 were from out of the big 4.

The winner scored at least 11 goals the season before

Let’s go through the big 4

Man United
Rooney 12/1 – Owen 12/1 – Berbatov 25/1
I can see a lot of value in Berbatov. He scored 9 in 31 games last season for United and for Spurs managed tallies of 15 and 12. In the last 3 seasons in the Bundesliga before he arrived at Spurs he scored 21, 20 and 16 so he has proved he can score. 15 odd goals is probably not beyond him and I would have him over Rooney who has played 7 full premier league seasons and who’s highest marks are 16 and 14. Owen has scored 157 goals in 321 league games in his career and is consistent. Doubts are his injuries and also I think he will be used less than the other two.

Liverpool
Torres 4/1 – Gerrard 20/1 – Kuyt 40/1
Let’s ignore Kuyt. Like Kezman and Alfonso Alves he has proved scoring goals in Holland means bugger all in a big league. After Torres at 4/1 the next player is Drogba at 11/1 and there’s no value in Torres. I can’t see how Liverpool will score more goals this season and they see to be weaker. Torres has had some injuries as well and his 14 goals last season would only have got him a top 4 finish (equal it was) in 2 of the past 10 seasons. I watched the Racing Post video the other day and one of the guys on there talked on Gerrard being more of a second striker than a midfielder and I am inclined to agree but he scored 16 last season but just 11 and then 7 the season before that so he has to prove he can score.

Chelsea
Drogba 12/1 – Anelka 14/1 – Lampard 33/1
In 5 seasons Drogba has scored 10, 12, 20, 8 and 5 league goals and this season is off the the African Nations Cup. Second favourite? Hmmmmmmm. I like Anelka in this market. You may not like the kind of person the media have told us he is but he has always scored goals. 103 goals in 242 Premier League games and 19, 11 and 11 in the last 3 seasons. He’s been at some dodgy clubs in England as well but has had seasons of 17 (Arsenal), 16 (Man City) and 19 (Chelsea). With Drogba going to the ANC he’s guaranteed starts and one thing about him is he is not injury prone. Appearances of 35, 32, 35, 33 (Man City + Fenerbahce), 32 and 38 show this. I think he must get 16+ goals at Chelsea and it could be a lot more. He has the naffest celebration in the whole of football but I will be hoping to see it a lot this season.

Arsenal
Van Persie 16/1 – Arshavin 28/1 – Eduardo 33/1 – Bentfoot 66/1
For me this is Arsenal’s problem. There are too many of them and I think Wenger will chop and change a lot. I think Arshavin will prove how good he is this season and score some amazing goals but he will be played as the second striker with 1 of the other 3 ahead of him and lots of substitutions between the 3.

For what it’s worth in terms of the big 4 I think United can’t replace Ronaldo and haven’t. It was goals, assists and the reputation they have lost and unless the strikers are on fire I can’t see them doing it again. Liverpool seem to have got weaker and Chelsea were already old and have got one year older. They also lose more than anyone to the ANC. That leaves Arsenal and as I said above Arshavin could be huge. Last season Eduardo and Rosicky were hugely missed and I doubt anyone would deny Fabregas is their best player and he missed a huge chunk as well. With those players back, and even with what they have lost, I see them being by far the most likely to improve.

The Rest
Well there has to be value elsewhere. I think Man City will do very well as much as people want them to fail. Money does buy success as Blackburn proved long ago and then so did Chelsea. They just have too many forwards to have anyone of value. Everton don’t score enough goals and Villa will have Carew, Heskey and Agbonhalor sharing too few games. The stats earlier indicate at least 1 of the top 4 will be outside the big 4 and possibly it could be 2 so who might be the one. My selection would be

Darren Bent (40/1)
98 goals in 250 league games is no mean feat. His season for Spurs in 07/08 was very poor with only 6 goals but he managed 12 last season and before he was at Spurs he scored 13, 18, 20 and 16 (Championship). He could play every game and has proven Premier League form. Spurs have had a terrible time the last few seasons and he has been slated so has done reasonably well in my book.

If Spurs didn’t have 4 strikers I would have been all over Pavlyuchenko at 100/1.

My bets for this season

Berbatov 25/1 Coral/Blue Sq/VC (1pt e/w)
Anelka 14/1 Paddy Power (2pt e/w)
Bent 40/1 Bet365/VC Bet/SJ/Skybet/Coral/Hills (1pt e/w)

Each time needs to be looked at individually rather than patterns as a whole. So the plan is less bets, so therefore more bets with enough study time. Corner bets did well so I’ll stick with them and also will concentrate on Spain as that is the football I watch the most. I’ll also do some research into some bets and share that. The first of which follows this.

I did have to add some badges and after finding some favourites last year I have to show the Bari badge as it has to go in the group of badges you wish your team didn’t have. It’s just like the logo of a dodgy KFC rip-off.

Over the next few days the site will be down for a bit as I am going to change the hosting company. The blog as well will go and should come back in a new format on the new host site. When it comes up I’ll work out how to continue this for the coming season.

Thanks to anyone who reads this and people who especially those who have given feedback to me this year. I have lost a lot but think I also have learnt a hell of a lot.

The current standings are:

141 Bets (136 points staked) :: 45 won – 85 lost – 9 void – 2 half void :: -25.39 points

“If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Chico Marx.