Hope there's some Christmas cheer in this lot. Still liking the Asian handicaps and a few different bets this weekend too.
Liverpool v Portsmouth (eng prem sat 3pm)
Got two bets here. Portsmouth have won 6 in a row away and travel to Anfield where Liverpool have won only 3 of their 8 home games, although they have only lost 1. Even so I feel the odds on Pompey in the win market of 6/1 is big but taking the draw no bet option you can still get 9/2 and that looks the value. Additionally taking the Asian Handicap market you can get Portsmouth at +1. Away they would have lost this bet only 1/9 (1 void) and Liverpool at home would have won this bet just 3/8.
++ Asian Handicap – Portsmouth +1 @ 1.98 on Betfred/VCBet (1pt)
++ Portsmouth (Draw no bet) @ 5.5 on Bet365/VCBet/Skybet (1/2pt)
Blackburn v Chelsea (eng prem sun 4pm)
Blackburn have 4 of their last 6 games and Chelsea have won 4 of their last 6 with defeats away at Arsenal and Man Utd. In their 4 wins they have not conceeded goal and Blackburn have not managed to score in 3 of the last 4. On the correct score chart 0-2 has the highest peak and I think it's worth a small bet here
++ Correct Score – 0-2 @ 8/1 on Betfred (1/2pt)
Southampton v Preston (eng champ sat 3pm)
Got this bet from the AH console but not an AH bet. When I saw this game both the bars matched at the home +1 marker and it seems 4 of 5 Southampton home wins have come by the odd goal.They are favourites to win this weekend and preston have lost 8/11 away this season and 6 of these were by the odd goal.
++ Southampton to win by 1 goal @ 3.75 on Bet365 (1/2pt)
Dundee United v Gretna (scots prem sat 3pm)
Dundee United are a big favourite for this game bit I noticed that at home they have kept a clean sheet in 6/8 games. Looking at Gretna they have failed to score in 5/8 games. Sporting Bet (formerly Sporting Odds) offer 5/4 on Gretna not scoring and on those figures thats very good value.
++ Away team not to score @ 2.25 on Sporting Bet (1pt)
Aberdeen v Rangers (scots prem sun 3pm)
I kept coming back to this game as Aberdeen seem such good value. In the end I think I should take a half point risk on the HT/FT result. Looking at the pie charts Aberdeen have won at HT and FT 3/9 and Rangers have lost at HT and FT 2/6. Aberdeen have won 5/6 at home and face a Rangers side who have lost 2/4 away.
++ Aberdeen/Aberdeen HT/FT @ 11/1 on Skybet (1/2pt)
Alloa v Berwick (scots two sat 3pm)
Alloa began the season at home with a loss, followed by a draw and since then have won 6 straight. They host Berwick who have lost 7 of the 8 away games. Alloa quite rightly are a short odds favourite. If you look in the Asian handicap Market they can be backed at -1. The odds on the straight win are 1/2 so as long as they win this bet can't lose. Looking at the AH chart and ignoring the Home +1 bar as that's the handicap you have Alloa winning this 3/5 (and remember the 2 that lost were the first 2 games of the season) and Berwick would have lost this 4/5. I really like the look of this and will go 2 points
++ Asian Handicap – Alloa -1 @ 1.93 on Bet365 (2pts)
Socheaux v Bordeaux (france sat 7pm)
Sochaux are second from bottom in France and host third place Bordeaux. The odds are similar on both teams and so the AH is off scratch (essentially draw no bet). Neither team is in the best of form but Bordeaux's two recent away losses have come at Nancy and Caen, both of whom are in the top six. With the AH Bordeaux would have won this bet 3/5 (4 void) and Socheaux would have lost 5/6 (2 void). Bordeaux's 4 losses this season have all come against teams in the top 6 so they look to have the measure of teams like Socheaux.
++ Asian Handicap – Bordeaux 0 @ 2.05 Bet365 (1pt) (draw no bet available at evens in a few places)
A Scottish Double for this weekend on Over 2.5 goals
Alloa v Berwick (scots two sat 3pm)
Alloa 6/8 over 2.5 goals at home and Berwick 5/6 away. Best price is
Elgin v Stranraer (scots two sat 3pm)
Elgin at home are over in 6/7 games and Stranraer away are over in 6/8
++ Double – Over 2.5 @ 2.4 on Sporting Bet (1pt) (not many prices available for this so could be beaten)
8 points bet in total
Southampton to beat Preston (championship), Rochdale to beat Barnet (english league 2), Inter Milan to win the Milan derby, Toulose to beat Rennes (France) and Athletico Madrid and Espanyol to both score in their match in Spain.
Can be backed at 31.18 on Bet365