SSS Tips Ever so close to a full house. If Stoke had stayed 0-0 with Charlton for those last 10 minutes it would have been half win/half void and made it an excellent midweek. Still didn't do badly as Chelsea and Reading shared 19 corners landing that bet easily. Sunderland were comfortable 2-0 winners against Birmingham and Rochdale were more than comfortable thrashing Chester 4-0. Charlton scored late beating Stoke 1-0 but overall we made +2.11 points which is very healthy.
Everything is in for the weekend. Seems like it's non-stop betting when there's a big midweek program. Scotland and France have the cup this weekend but there's still a fair amount of games in the lower Scottish leagues and Germany is back. Will give the German league a wide berth for a while to allow them to settle down again.
Nearly a full English program to pick from so hope I’ve found some decent stuff.
A corner bet to begin.
Chelsea v Reading (eng prem – wed local time)
If you add the Cheslea home corner average with the reading away average you get 14 corners. The line is set at 11 and 9/11 reading away games this season have been above that. For Chelsea at home this has only been made 4/11 but with 2 games at 11 exactly only 5/11 would be losers and 3 of these were 10 corners showing how thin the line is. They shared 13 in the same fixture last season although the handicap of Chelsea -4 looks huge I prefer over 11. In the whole of last season and this Reading have never had less than 3 corners away which is pretty unique. ++ Asian Total – Over 11 @ 1.85 on Bet365 (1pt)
Now the Asian Handicaps.
Sunderland v Birmingham (eng prem – tue local time)
A big game here with them level on points, but I think we will have a winner here tonight. Sunderland have a decent home record of W5 D3 L3 and the losses have come to Man Utd, Liverpool and Blackburn. They have been pretty solid, won their last 2 home games,and only Liverpool and Man Utd have managed to keep a clean sheet at the Stadium of Light. Birmingham have lost 6 of the last 8 away from home and only managed to keep a clean sheet once in 14 away games. I would think they will have a job doing it at Sunderland and, dropping the Man Utd and Liverpool games Sunderland have only leaked 7 goals in 9 games at home. The handicap is set at 0, -0.5 Sunderland but personally I think the win bet looks better value. Sunderland have won 5/11 at home and Birmingham lost 8/12 so 2.3 seems a nice price. ++ Sunderland @ 2.3 on Bet365 (1pt)
Charlton v Stoke (eng champ – tue local time)
These teams lie 4th and 5th in the championship and a win for Charlton could see them leapfrog Stoke. Charlton have performed better away than at home this season. Charlton have won just once in the last 7 and at home have lost 3 of the last 6. Stoke arrive with no defeats in the last 12 games and away from home have lost just twice all season and only once in the last 11 games. A draw looks pretty likely and the handicap favours Stoke at 0, +0.5. If we take the 0 they would have won this 5/7 but Charlton would have won it 6/11 so it’s about even. However, with the +0.5 Stoke would have won that 12/14 and Charlton lost it 8/14 and as we are getting over evens it looks good value. ++ Stoke 0, +0.5 @ 2.06 Ladbrokes (1pt)
Chester v Rochdale (eng 2 – tue local time)
Rochdale are the form team in league 2 with 7 wins, 2 draws and just one defeat in the last 10 and they also have the second best away record, landing another big scalp at the weekend beating the MK Dons. They have only lost once on the road since their first away game this season winning 8 and drawing 5 with 6 of those wins coming in the last 7 away games. Chester have lost 6 of their last 7 games and 4 of the last 5 at home. My only concern for Rochdale is up front where they sold a striker recently and with one returning from injury and another doubtful I think the AH is safer at Rochdale 0, +0.5. They would have won the 0 part 8/9 and the +0.5 part 8/14 so it still looks value. ++ Rochdale 0, -0.5 @ 1.96 on Ladbrokes (1pt)
SSS Tips The weekend started well on Saturday and then trailed off on Sunday. The double was landed as Rangers beat St Mirren 4-0 and then Toulose and Nice drew 1-1. Rotherham did the business winning 1-0 but the on Catania drew 0-0 with Parma so half that bet was void and half lost. The real downer was Atletico Madrid losing 1-0 in Mallorca. Sadly I don't pick their team but leaving the lethal Aguero on the bench for the one season wonder Mista didn't pay off especially in a side already weakened by the loss of Simao to injury and Maxi Rodriguez suspended. I didn't pay enough attention to team news as if I knew that Simao and Maxi weren't playing I may have played safer. Nothing like an expensive lesson! Still the weekend ended in profit albeit +0.44.
Late as usual! He's plumped for Leeds to win at Luton in league 1, Rotherham and Bradford to win away in league 2 at Chester and Wrexham respectively, Catania to land the win in Italy at home to Parma and Espanyol to win against Betis in Spain.
Hoping for a weekend like the last as opposed to the midweek debacle. Not many league matches in England as the FA Cup is in session, but that does mean a big midweek program to make up for it.
Be interesting to see if Villareal can do anything against Real Madrid on Sunday night. After beating Atletico last weekend a Madrid win would be ominous for the rest of the league even at such an early stage.
Rangers v St Mirren (scots prem – sat local time) / Toulose v Nice (france – sat local time)
Rangers have won 10/11 at home and in 7 of these games they’ve kept a clean sheet. St Mirren have mustered just 5 goals in their 10 away fixtures this season and Rangers look like they should win to 0. Paddy Power off a decent 1.62 but Blue Sq offer a mad 1.67 on St Mirren not to score.score. Toulose and Nice both don’t like over 2.5. In 11 Toulose home games they have managed this once and Nice have the same record away. Taking Blue Sq for their friendly price above at 1.53. ++ Double – @ 2.56 on Blue Sq (1pt)
No Corner bets this week as just the one premiership games so Asian Handicaps below but also a win bet as it just looked too good.
Chester v Rotherham (eng div 2 – sat local time)
Rotherham have the slightly shorter odds here which means the 0 handicap has low odds and you are left with taken them on 0, -0.5. I want to, but the win seems too inviting at 2.375 and here’s why. Chester have drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 6 games and lost 6 of their home games this season. Rotherham are the visitors and they have won 3 of the last 5 games and away from home have won 5 of the last 6 and the only one they didn’t win was the draw against Darlington who sit one place behind them in 3rd. If we call this handicap at Rotherham -0.5 then they would have won it 6 times and lost it 6 times and Chester would have won 7 and lost 6. A quote around evens would be fair considering the differences in form and so the current price looks great value. ++ Rotherham @ 2.375 generally (1pt)
Catania v Parma (italy – sun local time)
Only 3 places separate these teams but Catania are strong at home and Parma weak away. Catania have a W5 D2 L2 record at home and have won 2 of the last 3 at home (the other a draw with Juve) and 5 of the last 7. Parma come on Sunday with the worst away record in Serie A losing 7, drawing 2 and no wins and managing just 5 goals in these 9 games. If we take the AH we get a bit of added security with the line Catania 0, -0.5. They would have won the 0 line 5/7 (2 draws) and the -0.5 line 5/9. For Parma they would have lost the 0 line everytime bar the 2 draws which would be voids and the -0.5 7/9. ++ Catania 0, -0.5 @ 1.95 on Bet365 (1pt)
Real Mallorca v Atletico Madrid (la liga – sun 5pm local time)
Of all the games this weekend this one really stood out. I really rate Atletico Madrid and last weekend Aguero hit the bar right before Real Madrid scored their second goal and that might have changed the whole outcome. This weekend they travel to the island of Mallorca and on the road they have lost just twice, at Barcelona and Real Madrid. Mallorca have just one win in the last 12 games and are dropping down the table. Atletico can be backed odds against on the 0 AH and they would have won that 4/6 away (3 draws) and as mentioned earlier both losses against the big 2. Worth 2 points ++ Atletico Madrid 0 @ 2.075 on Bet365 (2pts)
SSS Tips That hurts. Some of the hard work from the weekend undone as we drew a blank in France. Valenciennes went down 2-1, having a man sent off at 1-1 might not of helped but they were not winning then so who knows if that changed the outcome. Caen couldn't even score and drew 0-0 which was a good result for Auxerre. Might be a bit more guarded with the French league for the next week or so after being burnt there.
None of the games in England really stood out but there are a few in France which I like and a similar bet to before and hoping for a similar story.
Valenciennes v Lens (france – weds 6 local time)
This is the early game in France this midweek. Again it's the home form of Valenciennes we are basing this on as they have kept the run going and now have W8 D2 L0 at home. This time Lens are the visitors and away from home they've W2 D1 L7. If you delve a little deeper you can see Lens are third from bottom of the league and the 2 wins came against the only 2 teams below them who have the worst home records in the league. Lens have only scored 6 goals in the 10 away league games and Valenciennes have the tightest home defense shipping only 3 goals so far this season. Valenciennes would have won this bet 8/10 at home and Lens would have lost it 7/10 away. Getting a price of evens seems exceptional value and you get the better price on the AH rather than the straight win. ++ Asian Handicap – Valenciennes -0.5 @ 2.075 on Bet365/VC Bet (1pt)
Caen v Auxerre (france – weds 8 local time)
It's a smilar story with Caen and Auxerre. Caen are the form team in France with just one loss in the last 14 games and 6 of the last 7 home games have ended in a win. Auxerre come to town and they managed W1 D2 L8 away from home scoring less (4) and conceeding more (21) than any other team. The 1 win game against rock bottom Metz and second from bottom Socheaux provided one of the draws. They are weak away and the on form Caen side should be too good for them. Caen have only lost one player to the African Nations Cup and although they have a small squad should have enough to cope. Again taking the AH handicap gets a much better price and am prepared to risk 1 1/2 points on this game. ++ Asian Handicap – Caen -0.5 @ 2.075 on Bet365/VC Bet/Ladbrokes (1 1/2pts)
++Double – The above bets @ 4.3 on Bet365 (1/2 pt)
SSS Tips Round Up Happily we can add Aston Villa as a winning bet too as they drew 2-2 at Anfield and were very unlucky not to win. A very healthy weekend all in all.
SSS Tips There's still the Aston Villa at Liverpool bet to run tonight but thought I should do the update now. A mixed bag this weekend but the long odds double came in which is a huge bonus. The actual haul considering this came in is still quite modest. The short odds double lost as Rangers only won 1-0 with an 89th minute winner and Inter were amazingly not winning at half time and it actually took 2 goals in the last 5 minutes for them to win 3-2 (-1pt). As mentioned above the long odds double came in as Raith and Darlington won 1-0 and were leading by the same score at half time (+6.25). Newcastle had 3 more corners thank Bolton so that extra corner cost us the bet (-1) and Accrington v Brentford was postponed. The big dissapointment of the weekend was the MK Dons who lost at bottom club Wrexham 1-0, which was the first time all season the Dons have not scored away (-2). Getafe had a right old ding dong with Sevilla in Spain and after conceeding in the last 5 mins to draw 2-2 managed to score an injury time winner and land the bet (+0.95).
All in all a good weekend with +4.2 gained so far and the one game still to play
Spinner Rinse The rinse had 2 games postponed, called QPR right but the other 2 were wrong and those pesky MK Dons were in one of those. Back for more next week.
Accumulators 14, Profit -14
In midweek there is a full program in France as well as a few games in England. If there are bets they will be put up later tonight. Then the games will be updated throughout the week and the refs added. It's FA cup week in England again next weekend so not that many games.
The rinse is back and has squeezed in his selections between tournaments. Auxerre were in but then they weren't and now the final lot are all close to home. We have QPR to beat Barnsley at home in the championship and then he seems to have gone away day mental in league 2 with Brentford at Accrington, Stockport at Bury, Grimsby at Dagenham & R and MK Dons at Wrexham.
Can be backed at 48.85 on Stan James and Bet Direct
I might start putting the majority of these bets out on a Friday morning. Brentford was available at 1.91 earlier at two bookies who have now cut them to 1.83. Bet365 have cut Getafe from 1.98 to 1.95 and Ladbrokes took them to 1.86. Villa also have been cut from 1.9 to 1.88. These are small amounts but they all add up.
Some interesting games around this weekend. The Madrid derby being one of them and if only Atletico didn’t have Abbiati in goal then they’d be a good bet. Still found some nice games and a mix of bets.
Start with a pair of doubles
Inter Milan v Parma (serie A – sun local time) / Inverness CT v Rangers (scots prem – sun local time)
Inter Milan have been mighty impressive in Italy this season and won 8 out of 9 at home and host Parma who have no away wins and drawn 2 and lost 6. Inter look a good thing but it’s the half time pie that strikes me. In the 9 home games they have led at half time 8 times. Add the fact that Parma have been losing in 5 of 8 and you have a decent bet, especially with Paddy Power offering 1.62. Combining the above records the chance is actually 13/17 which would be a price of 1.31. It’s the over 2.5 market here worth looking at. Sometimes it can be deceiving when you get two teams with lots of games over 2.5 if they are both at the top or both at the bottom, but here we have a big difference between the teams. At home for Inverness 9/11 games have been over 2.5 and for Rangers away it’s 7/9. If we combine these records we get 16/20 which is odds of 1.2 but 1.67 is widely available. The odds are both short but combining these in a double makes sense. ++ Double – @ 2.71 on Paddy Power (1pt)
Mansfield v Darlington (eng div2 – sat local time) / QueensPark v Raith (scots 2 – sat 3pm local time)
This is a risky double but both these games stood out on the console for the teams leading at half time. Looking at Darlington they have won 7/10 away and each time have led at halftime. 3.8 is available on Darlington HT/FT at a number of bookmakers and it looks good value. A similar story with Raith who have won 7/10 away this season but of these, 6 were won when leading at halftime as well. Ladbrokes offer a whopping 3.75 on this and 3.5 is available. I considered making them both singles as just one coming in returns a profit but thought a small double made more sense. ++ Double – @ 13.5 on Ladbrokes (1/2pt) – also 13.3 on Stan James
A corner Bet
Newcastle v Bolton (eng prem – sat local time)
KK is back in charge and not sure it will be instant attack. The average supremacy for Newcastle at home is 1.2 and it's a very similar figure for Bolton away (to the home side that is). The handicap is Bolton +2 and I can't help but think there's a little knee-jerk in that. Looking at Newcastle they would have beaten that handicap 11/30 times last season and this and taking this season just 3/11, with one draw. in the 11. These 3 wins have come against Wigan, Everton and Derby who are all in the bottom seven in terms of corner supremacy away. Bolton are a different kettle of fish and would have lost the +2 handicap just 3 times, drawn twice and won 5 times. In terms of averages Newcastle average 5.8 at home and Bolton 5.2 away. I checked the midweek cup game against Stoke at St James Park and Newcastle only managed 5 corners. The fact that we get the higher 1.95 price adds to the value. ++ Asian Handicap Corners – Bolton +2 @ 1.95 on Bet365 (1pt)
Now some Asian handicaps
Accrington v Brentford (eng div 2 – sat local time)
I was wrong to oppose Brentford last weekend with Chesterfield. Went against Chesterfield with success in midweek and now will back Brentford. They have won 4 on the bounce now and have just 1 loss in 7. They travel to Accrington who have not won in 4 (losing 8-2 last weekend), only won once at home in the last 7 and only won 4/13 at home all season. The mark is even here and it turns out draw no bet gives better odds despite being the same bet. The Bees would have won this 6/10 away (3 draws) and Accrington lost 8/12 (1 draw). ++ Draw No Bet – Brentford @ 1.9 on Sporting Odds (1pt)
Wrexham v MK Dons (eng div 2 – sat local time)
MK Dons are flying high and are very short odds to win away. However, this is top plays bottom and MK have won 6 in a row away and 10 of the last 11 with away form better than home. Wrexham are struggling and have lost their last 6 games, and at home lost 6 and drawn 2 of the last 8. The handicap is -0.5, -1 for MK but if they win then this bet wins. That’s the bottom line and that looks great value for me. If they win by 1 then the -1 is void and -0.5 wins which has happened 10/13 times for them away this season and Wrexham would have lost that 8/12. If MK win by more than 1 then it’s a bonanza but as long as they win this bets a winner and that looks value. ++ MK Dons -0.5, -1 @ 2.04 on Ladbrokes (2pts)
Getafe v Sevilla (la liga – sat 8pm local time)
Getafe have only won once in the past 5 games but prior to that they won 4/5 and 2 of the recent losses have been against Villareal and Atletico Madrid which is no disgrace and last week somehow managed to lose against Betis despite dominating the game. Pato, their goalie which also means Duck in Spanish, is a liability and makes all their games interesting. They are in the zero handicap v Sevilla and I think it’s good value despite him as they would have won that 4/7 at home (2 draws). Sevilla are a good side but really have struggled away from home this season with the only win coming at hopeless bottom of the table Levante. With Kanoute and Keita in Africa with Mali this makes it an even better time to play them.They would have lost the 0 handicap 6/7 away (2 draws). ++ Getafe 0 @ 1.95 on Bet365 (1pt)
Liverpool v Aston Villa (mon local time)
This game isn’t until Monday but will easier to include in the weekends bets than a midweek selection. At Anfield Liverpool have only managed to beat Portsmouth, Fulham, Derby and Bolton in their 10 home games. Villa arrive keen to avenge the last minute loss on the opening day and they arrive with only 2 losses in their last 13 games and only 1 loss in 10 away games this season. The odds on Liverpool are very short and they seem to be making headlines for the wrong reasons this season. The handicap is available are Villa +0.5, +1 but also at +1 which is the one I want. Villa have not lost that all season and won it 9 times with 1 void. For Liverpool it’s 4 wins and 6 losses on that line. ++ Asian Handicap – Aston Villa +1 @ 1.88 on Bet365 (1pt)
7.5 points bet in total
Waiting on the Spinner Rinse as once again he’s buried in the Brazilian poker tournament on Pokerroom.