SSS Tips

Think there's some good value around this week. Dropped some games like Atletico v Valencia (still thik they'll win but the stats couldn't back me up) and also fancy Man City to get something from Goodison Park.

Start with a corner bet

Manchester United v Newcastle (sat 5:15pm local time)

Man Utd have the biggest average corner supremacy this season. They average a 5pt margin and the spread v Newcastle is -3.5, 4 so a 4 corner supremacy gives a half win. This season in 11 games only Middlesboro, Spurs and Birmingham would have beaten that handicap. The Birmingham game was a freak as there were only 2 corners and Spurs and Middlesboro average the 5th and 2nd most corners away this season respectively. Newcastle are in the bottom half in terms of average corners and last season and this away at the big 4 have lost by more than 4 4/5 times.
++ Asian Handicap Corners – Man Utd -3.5, -4 @ 1.85 on Bet365 (1pt)

Now some Asian handicaps

Preston v Watford (sat 3pm local time)

Watford's recent form has not been too great but it's at home where they have struggled. On the road they have the best record in the division by a long way with 9 wins in 13 and travel to bottom of the league Preston. We are getting evens on Watford on the 0, -.5 handicap and I think there is value there. In terms of the 0 handicap Watford would have won 9, lost 2 and 2 void, whereas Preston would have won 4, lost 5 and voided 4. The -0.5 still favours Watford as they would have won 9 and lost 4 but Preston would have won this 8 times and lost 5. To me the -0.5 looks even and with the 0 handicap we should have the edge.
++ Asian Handicap – Watford 0, -0.5  @ 2 on generally available (1pt)

Brentford v Chesterfield (sat 3pm local time)

Brentford have had a mini revival of late winning 4 of the last 6 but 3 of these have come away and 2 of them against teams in the bottom 3. At home they have struggled with only 3 wins in 12 and host Chesterfield who have 8 wins in 12 away games. They have the divisions 2nd top scorer returning after missing the last game through suspension and before that had won 4 on the bounce. Away from home they've only lost twice and this game the handicap is 0 so obviously would have lost this bet twice this season but won it 8 times. Brentford would have won it 3 times but lost 7 with both of them drawing twice (2 voids).
++ Asian Handicap – Chesterfield 0  @ 1.98 on Bet365/Pinnacle (1pt)

Valenciennes v St Etienne (sat 5:15 local time)

I have sided with Valenciennes before and they still look good value. They were knocked out of the cup away from home last week but at home in the league their record is awesome as they have won 7, drawn 2 and not lost scoring 18 and only letting in 3. St Etienne arrive with the worst away record in the division with 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses. The handicap is available at 0, 0.5 or just 0.5 and I think 0.5 is a bigger risk but worth it. If Valenciennes win this bet wins and as I have highlighted above thats 7/9 wins for Valenciennes and 7/10 losses for St Etienne. The price has come down from a best of 2.22 today and still looks value above evens.
++ Valenciennes to win on generally @ 2.05 (2pts)

5 points bet in total

Spinner Rinse

The rinse is currently engaged in poker but hope to have something from him later for the weekend.