Week 19 Bets (01.03.08)

SSS Tips

A new month starts so hopefully we can continue in good form. A full program for the first time in a while and a variety of bets again although the half time ones seem to feature more than normal. Overall 8 bets which I hope isn't too many.

Interesting games in Spain this weekend and it’s not often you get the chance to back Real Madrid and Barcelona in a double at nearly 3/1. Atletico Madrid have been poor of late and if Simao still isn’t back I would fancy Barcelona to win that one.

First up a corner bet.

Middlesbrough v Reading

This looks like an overs on the corner front. Craven Cottage and the Madjeski are the only two grounds that have a higher corner average than the Riverside and only Tottenham, Chelsea and Man Utd average more corners at home than Boro. Away from home Reading average more corners than any other team with 6.9 and also concede more than anyone else with 7.9 giving a whopping average of 14.8 corners in their away games. Boro at home and Reading away combine for an average of 13.8 corners so taking the asian total with the safety of net of 12 corners looks good.
++ Asian Total Corners – Over 12 @ 1.85 on Bet365 (1pt)

I’ll persist once more with an over under short odds double.

St Etienne v Nice (france – sun 6pm local time)/Bochum v Bayer Leverkusen (germany – sun 5pm local time)

St Etienne v Nice you have 9/12 St Etienne home games under 2.5 and an amazing 12/13 Nice away games under. Together it’s 21/25 (84%) which is odds of 1.19 but can be backed at over 1.55. Bochum have 9/10 home games over 2.5 and Leverkusen have 8/13 away games which gives 17/23 (74%) so odds of 1.35 but is available at above 1.67. I couldn’t get my odds comparison site to do both these games but think I have still found the best odds on Bet365.
++ Double – St Et v Nice Under 2.5/Bochum v Leverkusen Over 2.5 @ 2.61 on Bet365 (1pt)

I think I have found some value in HT bets. I may have gone half time mad this week but only time will tell.

Middlesbrough v Reading (eng prem – sat 3pm local time)

Got this game for the corner bet but now there’s something else. In the console you can see that Reading are very poor at HT, losing 9/13, and Middlesboro pretty decent, being ahead 6/13. Digging a bit deeper it seems that 1-0 is pretty popular and so in all home games boro have led 1-0 at HT 5 times and 4 of those were in the last 6 games. 7 times Reading have been behind 1-0 at the break and 4 of the last 6 so overall we get 12/25 (48%) which is odds of 2.1 so the 3.75 (Bet365/Paddy Power) on offer looks good value. This was available earlier at 4 on Sporting Odds so is worth checking when they put the market back up. Betfair looks to have 4 as well.
++ Half Time Score – 1-0 @ 3.75 on Bet365/Paddy Power (½pt)

Cardiff v Leicester (eng champ – sat 3pm local time)

Both the half time pie charts really stand out here with Cardiff leading at home 9/16 times and Leicester losing away in 10/17 games. Also in the last 5 games Cardiff had led in 4 and Leicester have lost in 4. Hopefully that pattern will continue as adding the two up you get 19/33 (58%) chance which is odds of 1.74 and as 2.5 and above is widely available it looks good value.
++ Half Time –
Cardiff @ 2.625 on Betfred (1pt)

Villareal v Osasuna (spain – sat 5pm local time)

Last season this both the fixtures between these two ended up 4-1 to the away team. The HT draw looks good value here as 7/13 Villareal home games have been a HT draw and 8/12 Osasuna away games. That’s 15/25 (60%) and should be odds of 1.67 but 2.25 is available (and higher on betfair). I will risk half a point on that and another half that Villareal then go on to win the game as 4 of the 7 Villareal HT draws and and 6 of the 8 Osasuna HT draws have ended with a home win. That’s 10/25 (40%) so odds of 2.5 but can be backed at 4.5.
++ Half Time – Draw @ 2.25 on Bet365/Blue Sq/Coral (½pt)
++ HT/FT – Draw/Villareal @ 4.5 on Sporting Bet/Blue Sq/Skybet/Ladbrokes (½pt)
 

A different one here.

Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund (germany – sat 3:30pm local time)

There was quite a lot about this game that looked worth a bet. Over 2.5, Bremen to be winning at HT amongst others but I am going for something new. In the correct score chart I noticed a big blue bar in the Other category which means Bremen like a goal. Delving deeper I found that Bremen have scored 3 or more in 5/11 home games and Dortmund have conceded 3 or more in 5/11 away games. Both these records are a 45% chance so should be odds of 2.2. I then found Bet365 offerring 4.33 on ‘3 Star Werder Bremen-Werder Bremen To Score 3 Or More’. Looks worth half a point.
++ Match Specials – 3 Star Werder
Bremen To Score 3 Or More @ 4.33 on Bet365 (½pt)

More traditional.

Lorient v Nancy (france – sat 8pm local time)

Lorient are unbeaten in 9 at home and have won 6 of the last 7. Nancy are above them in 3rd place but really this is due to their strong home form. Away from home they have W2 D7 L4 so although they haven’t lost many I think they could in this game. It’s 9 games since they won away and although they have drawn 3 of the last 5 away they have failed to score in any of those games. Lorient have score in 10/13 home games and although they don’t score a lot I would think they can score in this game and 1 goal might be enough. The price of 2.4 represents value for me on the win but to be safe I’ll side the Asian handicap of 0, -0.5 as it’s still above evens.
++ Asian Handicap –
Lorient 0, -0.5 @ 2.075 on Bet365 (1pt)

Recreativo Huelva v Real Madrid (spain – sat 8pm local time)

So let’s see, we have the league leaders away, who have the best away record in the league, against a team 2 points above the relegation zone and you can back them at evens hmmmmm. Real Madrid have struggled lately but I am prepared to wager that it won’t continue. Pepe and Robinho were back training with the squad and even though they have a big game against Roma in the week I think they will have a strong team out for this game as they need a win. I can’t really use stats to back this price up but it just seems too high and a bit of an overreaction to the recent slump. The AH market -0.5 gives a much better price than the win.
++ Asian Handicap – Real
Madrid -0.5 @ 1.975 on Bet365 (1pt)

7 points bet in total

Spinner Rinse

Going for some shorter odds this week in Norwich to beat Blackpool and Cardiff to beat Leicester in the Championship, Northampton to beat Crewe in League 1, Werder Bremen to beat Dortmund in Germany and Real Madrid to win at Recreativo in Spain.
++ Five-fold accumulator @ 21.05 on bet365

NOTES

I am pretty sure there will also be a bet on Monday night involving the Forest v Carlisle game too so will update all games on Monday and post that bet up if it looks good.

29 Feb, 08 | Posted in: Tips | Comments Closed

Round Up (Week 18.5)

A bit of a disappointing end to what has been a fantastic month. February has made a big difference to the total and hopefully we can now continue this on to March. We had 32 bets in February with 17 winners, 2 void bets and 2 half void/half loss and made +8.55 points profit, including a midweek full house. The full season stats are below the SSS analysis.

SSS Tips
The corner bet on Monday was a bit of a saviour as without that the midweek might have been a poor one. Man City got just 4 corners so the under 6 bet was landed and Paddy Power had once again overpriced this market. Accrington managed a win and beat Brentford 1-0 which lost us the match bet. AC Milan drew 1-1 at Catania and after scoring in the second half it woudln't have been too hopeful for them to hold out to 1-0 but it wasn't to be. They were free scoring earlier in the season but really seemed to have tightened up now and might be worth looking at again for low scoring games, especially if Kaka is injured.

Bets 109 Wins 51 (plus 7 void and 4 void/loss), Points staked 107 Profit +17.17

NOTES

Everything is in for the weekend and there's a full program of games. No cups anywhere which makes a change and I'll post up my bets on Friday afternoon.

28 Feb, 08 | Posted in: Roundups | Comments Closed

Week 18.5 Bets (25.02.08) Part 2

SSS Tips

A nice winner on the corner bet last night as Man City managed only 4. Between them they managed 11 which was higher than I thought they would get so glad I plumped for that bet. I am aware that people don’t have betting accounts with all bookmakers so am not sure quite how fair it is to pick a bet that only one bookmaker offers. Any comments would be appreciated.

On to the rest of the midweek games and I have found it very hard to find bets. I went through all the games twice and think have found some but will play to small stakes.

Accrington Stanley v Brentford (eng lge 2 – tue 7:45pm local time)

I have opposed Accrington at home recently and was unsure about doing it again because of possible Brentford injuries but really it looks too good to turn down. Accrington have lost 11/15 matches at home this season which is more than anyone else. In their last 10 matches they have lost 8 and it could have been worse if they hadn’t played Chester twice in that period as they managed a draw and a win against them. They’ve lost 5 of the last 6 at home and in the last ten games (home and away) have the worst record in the league. Brentford are the visitors and they have the best record in the last 10 games (W7 D2 L1) with their only loss last weekend at Chesterfield. Before that they’d won 5/6 away and had been on a great run of form taking them out of the relegation zone and up the table. They had to lose at some stage and just hope last weekend was a blip and Accrington are really in trouble at the moment. You can get 2.4 on Betfair or a best priced 2.25 elsewhere.
++ Brentford to win @ 2.25 on expect/Bet Direct/Stan James (1pt)

Catania v Milan (serie A – wed 8:30pm local time)

Originally I liked the under 2.5 goals bet in this game but when I looked in more detail there was another bet I liked which is Milan to win 1-0. 3/12 Milan away games have ended with a 1-0 victory and it’s a scoreline they are famous for. Their last 5 away games have ended 0-0, 0-1, 0-1, 2-1 and 0-1 so they are getting into the groove. You have to go back 7 away games to find the last time they scored more than 1 goal and they have kept a clean sheet in 4 of the last 5. Catania have scored 11 goals in 11 games at home but have only scored 2 goals in their last 6 home and away games. A bit of classic Milan and this bet could be landed. It’s available at 7.2 on betfair.
++ Correct Score – 0-1 @ 6.5 on Bet365/WHill/VC/SportingBet (½pt)

1½ points staked

NOTES

The premiership is already for the weekend and I’ll update the other English divisions on Wednesday and then the Italians on Thursday when everything will be ready for the weekend.

26 Feb, 08 | Posted in: Tips | Comments Closed

Week 18.5 Bets (25.02.08) Part 1

SSS Tips

I’ll have to do this in two parts as there is a bet tonight that I want to get on but haven’t had enough time to look at the rest. It’s a corner bet and the good thing about live premiership games is that a number of other bookies play the corner market and often they aren’t quite as accurate I bet365 seem to be.

ManCity v Everton (eng prem – mon 8pm local time)

ManchesterCity average under 4 corners per game at home and are the only team to do so. The average is 3.9 is tiny and to put this into perspective the next 3 teams are Derby with 4.3, Wigan with 4.9 and then Liverpool with 5.3. Every other team averages over 6 corners at home. Away from home Everton have the fifth lowest average number of corners and this game looks to have a low corner count written all over it. As it’s a live game there’s such a choice of bets and would have bet the under 11 quote which available up to evens without hesitation but found something else. Paddy Power have a total corners bet with a nice price which is ManCity under 6 corners at 10/11. In their 13 home games they’ve beaten this just twice (6 twice and 8 twice) so it looks good value, especially taken with their average.
++ Number of Team Corners – Man City Under 6 Corners @ 1.91 on Paddy Power (1pt)

NOTES

All the midweek games are ready in the console and each morning I should be able to update the games from the night before.

25 Feb, 08 | Posted in: Tips | Comments Closed

Round Up (Week 18)

A pleasing weekend with 4/6 bets winning and a profit of +3.27 points. February has been a very good month and there are plenty of games this week so might be the odd bet before the month is out. This weekend was most impressed with Sevilla at home to Zaragoza. I know Zaragoza are weak on the road but they hammered them in the first half and Luis Fabiano must be the most in form striker in Europe. I fancy them to overcome Fenerbahce in the champions league and then will be very hard to beat.

SSS Tips
We went for the over corners quote in the Reading v Aston Villa game and that was comfortable as they managed 18 and all we needed was 12. Darlington beat Bury 2-1 and were leading 1-0 at HT after scoring in the sixth minutes so that bet was landed. Nancy and Lens didn't manage their HT draw though as Lens scored 5 minutes before the break. Mansfield v Chester finished 1-3 so we got the over 2.5 goals right and then in the same division Stockport won 2-0 at Accrington. Valenciennes were the big disappointment as they didn't even win after conceding a goal in the first minute.

Bets 106 Wins 50 (plus 7 void and 4 void/loss), Points staked 104.5 Profit +17.76

Spinner Rinse
Close as Brentford losing 1-0 at Chesterfield was the only game to let us down.

Accumulators 18, Profit -18

NOTES

The weekend games will be updated on Monday morning and there are midweek games in England, Scotland and Italy.

24 Feb, 08 | Posted in: Roundups | Comments Closed