Week 24 Bets (05.04.08) extra Corner Bet

SSS Tips

Happy to have found this one in the pile and may drag out these stats again for any remaining games between the big 4

Arsenal v Liverpool (prem – sat 12:45pm local time)

Normally I would dismiss this game straight away but thought I'd have a little dig round as I have thought I saw that these games normally have low corner counts. Turns out it's true and looking at all games between the big 4 clubs in the past 4 seasons we have 45 matches and 35 of them have been 10 corners or under. Essentially that's odds of 1.29 which you would never see. Looking at these teams I noticed that only 1 of the 11 away games Liverpool have featured in have been over 10 corners. For Arsenal at home it's not as low as 3/11 have been 10 or more but that's 18/22 Arsenal home games v the Big 4 and Liverpool away games v the Big 4 that have been 10 or less corners. There's no choice but to bet this.
++ Total Corners – Under 11 @ 1.91 on Stan James/Bet Direct (1pt)

An interesting fact I also noticed is that if you just look at games between Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool (so dropping Man Utd) 21 of the 23 remaining games were under 11 corners.

5 points staked in total on the weekend now.

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Week 24 Bets (05.04.08)

SSS Tips

Another weekend of trying to break the 20 point barrier and stay there. Some weeks I have a huge list of possible selections that need to be whittled down but this week I just have 7 then need to be trimmed to 5 and then will add a corner bet again later.

Funny to see that it’s FA cup weekend in England and only one top flight team is left in. Nice to not see one of the big 4 win it but the standard of football probably won’t be too great.

As last week I’ll add a corner bet later on as all the prices don’t come out till later. It means that I can try and get some early prices on the other games rather than holding on to these write-ups till I get round to the corners.

Got a couple of half time bets again so will kick off with those.

Fulham v Sunderland (premier – sat 3pm local time)

9/16 Fulham home games and 9/16 Sunderland away games have been HT draws which is over 56%. Looking into this a bit more we can see that 0-0 seems to be the most popular outcome as that has happened 8/16 times for both teams and in 6 of the last 7 Sunderland away games. Looking at Fulham first they have scored in the first half in just 5 games this season and only 2 of the last 13. For Sunderland the record is worse as they have managed to score before HT just 3 times in their 16 away matches. I can see this being a tight nervy affair and am happy to stick a point on the HT score of 0-0.
++ Half Time Score – 0-0 @ 2.6 on Boylesports (1pt)

Catania v Napoli (serie a – sun 3pm local time)

Looking at the pie charts both teams love a HT draw. It’s 9/15 for Catania at home and 10/15 for Napoli away. Taking them both together the probability is 19/30 (63%) or odds of 1.58 so the generous Corals quote of 2.1 looks good value. This price of theirs seems to be standard across and doesn’t vary according to the game.
++ Half Time – Draw @ 2.1 on Corals (1pt)

The more traditional fare. Blackburn to beat Spurs was very close to making it in as was Wigan to beat Birmingham. The inconsistency of Spurs is amazing and that’s the only thing that puts me off as maybe they are due a decent perfoarmance.

Northampton v Luton (eng lge 1 – sat 3pm local time)

Northampton have won 9/20 home games and Luton have lost 14/20 away. On that most simple level it looks like a 57% chance of a Northampton win and should be odds of 1.74 but 1.91 is available. Luton have had some terrible problems this season and have lost 7 of the last 8 away from home and have the first away record in the division. Northampton lost their last home game against 4th placed Forest but had won 4 of the previous 6 and hadn’t lost in 10, including a 4-2 win over top of the table Swansea. The 1.91 available looks decent but I also note that 8 times this season Northampton have led at HT and gone on to win and for Luton away they’ve been losing at HT 10 times and lost the match. That’s 18/40 (45%) or odds of 2.22 so with a couple of firms offering 3.2 I am choosing a split stake bet.
++ Win Market –
Northampton @ 1.91 on Stan James/Bet Direct (½pt)
++ Half Time/Full Time – Northampton/Northampton @ 3.2 on Stan James/Bet Direct (½pt)

Eintracht Frankfurt  v Nurnberg (bundesliga – sat 3:30pm local time)

I still don’t understand the price on offer here and hope I am not missing anything. Nurnberg need the win but then so too do Frankfurt but Frankfurt are at home, lie in 7th place and host rock bottom Nurnberg. Taking their last 10 games Frankfurt have the second best form taking 22 of a possible 30 points with a record of W7 D1 L2 with both the defeats away from home. Since the Christmas break they have won 3 and drawn 1 at home. Nurnberg have the worst away record in the league with 10 losses in the 13 games and haven’t won away in 12 games. The offer of over evens for Frankfurt is too good to turn down.
++ Win Market –
Frankfurt @ 2.15 on Bet365 (1pt)

4 points bet in total. Likely to be a further 1 point bet later with corners

Spinner Rinse

All over Europe this week with Northampton to beat Luton, Brighton to beat Port Vale (both league 1), Hibs to beat St Mirren (scots prem), Frankfurt to beat Nurnberg (germany) and Sampdoria to beat Livorno (italy).
++ Five-fold accumulator @ 14.76 on Bet365

NOTES

As stated earlier a corner bet will be added later and the games will all be updated on Monday.

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