Week 24.5 Bets (08.04.08)

Came up with quite a few possible bets here but have whittled it down to just one. I did like the look of under 2.5 in the NottsForest game but at 1.8 it’s hard to recommend a bet. The St Etienne game n France looked interesting as they have conceded just 4 goals in 15 home games but Lens seem to score quite freely.

SSS Tips

West Ham v Portsmouth (prem – tues 7:45pm local time)

The corner handicap for this game has been priced up quite closely but looking at the recent patterns I think West Ham might have a bigger advantage that the bookmakers think. West Ham average 6.5 corners at home which is in the top half of the averages and each game they average a supremacy of 1 corner over their opponents. Pompey are the visitors and away from home they average a paltry 3.8 corners, only Derby average less, and the supremacy averages out to 2 more for the home team. The handicap is West Ham -0.5, -1 and taking home games excluding the big 4 they would have won 6 of 11 times and had one half win/half void. Excluding games v the big 4 their supremacy rises to 1.8 corners per game. If we look at Pompey, and again exclude games v the big 4, this bet would have been a winner 7 of 12 times with 3 half win/half void so only twice in 12 games would it have been a losing bet. In these 12 games only once did Pompey manage over 5 corners and that was at Derby in August and since the turn of the year they have had just 19 corners in 6 away games. West Ham’s 5 home games of 2008 have netted 33 corners and this bet has to be taken.
++ Asian Handicap Corners – West Ham -0.5, -1 @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)

1 point staked

NOTES

Games will be updated Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

7 Apr, 08 | Comments Closed

Round Up (Week 24)

Never like a losing weekend but that's what it was. A goal in first half stoppage time at Craven Cottage was the difference between a winning and losing weekend. Can't be too dissapointed though as the loss was just -0.59pts and although we are now over 1.5pts down on the month a decent bet or two and we'll be back in profit.

There are over 10 games in England this midweek as well as one in France and a few in Scotland so I'd say it's likely there will be at least one bet.

Another funny weekend in Spain as the top 3 managed 2 pts between them and Real Madrid were incredibly lucky and owe the ref a big thanks from Saturday night. Barca were unlucky on Sunday but the 0-0 draw was followed by the newspaper waving from fans showing their displeasure. It really has been a poor season in Spain and if Messi is still out you really will have to fancy Man Utd to give them a good going over if they meet in the Champions League.

SSS Tips
The corner bet was a winner agaian as Arsenal and Liverpool shared 8 corners and really pleased with that stat regarding corners in games between the big 4. As mentioned above Sunderland scored in the 45th minute at Fulham and robbed us of 1.6pts and made he difference on the weekend. Catania Whopped Napoli and were 2-0 up at HT. Northampton did the business for us though winning 2-1 but being 2-0 up at HT so both parts of the bet were landed. Eintracht Frankfurt lost 3-1 after being 1-0 up and that bet did look to good to be true and maybe it was!

Bets 164 Wins 72 (plus 11 void and 6 void/lost), Points 150.5 staked Profit +18.18

Spinner Rinse
The bookies were laughing at the rinse again with 3 out of 5 winning selections as Northapton, Hibs and Sampdoria were the only winners.

Accumulators 24, Winners 1, Profit -16.49

NOTES

All the weekend results are in and I'll add the referees for the weekend on Wednesday or Thursday when I update the midweek results.

| Comments Closed