Week 25 Bets (12.04.08)

SSS Tips

Hopefully some lessons learnt from previous weeks in terms of bets but we’ll see. Struggled to find much in England and rather than force bets there have looked elsewhere and have gone very Italian this weekend. It wasn’t purposeful but the bets there just stood out.

Another big game in England for Arsenal and a big clash in Italy as well. No major games in Spain but surely another chance for the top teams to throw points away.

A corner bet to begin.

Portsmouth v Newcastle (eng prem – sat 5:15 local time)

Being the live game there is a wide array of possible corner bets to choose from but the straight corner handicap is the one I like although it will be the first time I have gone with Skybet for one of these. Keegan took over Newcastle after the away hammering at Old Trafford and in his next away game they went to the Emirates and managed to get just two corners. In the four games since they have  had 5, 8, 8 and 7. If we take the whole season (dropping games against the big 4) they average 5 corners to Pompey's 6.5. So it looks like Pompey will shade the handicap but I think this is a bit deceiving as the Portsmouth corner counts have fallen away as the season progressed. FrattonPark used to be corner central and in the first 7 games of the season Portmouth averaged over 8 corners but in the 9 games since then the average has dropped to 4.33 and they've only got over 5 corners once in those games. They could get 5 corners tomorrow and taking the Newcastle +2 handicap on offer from Skybet Keegan's charges would only have to get 4 to beat the handicap which is well within their grasp. Bet365 offer Newcastle +1, +1.5 @ 1.95 as an alternative.
++ Corner Handicap –
Newcastle +2 @ 1.91 on Skybet (1pt)

A correct score bet again.

Cheltenham v Walsall (eng div 1 – sat 3pm local time)

We have bet on Cheltenham scores a couple of times and been victorious and although I may be going to the river one time to many it just looks a good bet again. 17/21 Cheltenham home games have been under 2.5 goals and 16/21 Walsall away games so you have to think it will be a tight affair, especially as Cheltenham home games have seen less goals than anywhere else in the division. At home Cheltenham have score 1 goal in 16 games, kept scoreless 3 times and scored 2 goals just twice so now it looks like a 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline and ½ a point on each looks sensible.
++ Correct Score – 1-0 @ 8 on Stan James/Ladbrokes/Bet Direct (½pt)
++ Correct Score – 1-1 @ 6.5 on most firms (½pt)

Juventus v Milan (serie a – sat 8:30pm local time)

A bit of an ambitious one this but I think it is worth ½ a point. 9/15 Juve home games have been HT draws and 10/16 Milan away games. That’s where the stats play their part and then I think this game could well end in a draw as the last 2 games between these teams have and 3 of the last 5. In fact 3 of the last 5 games between these clubs have finished 0-0 and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that again. The 9/1 on offer from Sporting Odds looks much too big but I’ll settle for a safer draw/draw option in case it’s a 1-1 scoreline.
++ Half Time/Full Time – Draw/Draw @ 4.5 on VC/Ladbrokes/Blue Sq/Stan James/Corals (½pt)

++ Correct Score – 0-0 @ 10 on Sporting bet (½pt)

The more traditional fare.

Reggina v Sampdoria (serie A – sun 3pm local time)

Looking at recent games this looks like a standout bet but the home form of Reggina has been decent. In the last 10 games no-one has performed better than Sampdoria in Italy and they have only tasted defeat just once in the last 12 games and won 5 of the last 6. Away from home they lost 7 of the first 9 games but since then have lost just twice in 7 away games and won 4 of the last 5. Sampdoria are still in line for a place in Europe but need to keep winning, whereas Reggina need to keep winning as they are bottom of the league but know one win and they could be out of the relegation zone. They have just 2 wins in the last 14 games and 1 in the last 8 but at home have not lost for 4 matches. Sampdoria could well win and 3 is a very generous price but also it’s more unlikely they will lose so taking the AH bet/Draw no bet option looks more sensible.
++ Asian Handicap – Sampdoria (0)
@ 2.1 on Bet365 (1pt)

Valencia  v Racing Santander (la liga – sat 8pm local time)

Racing have been a revelation this season and lie in 5th place and could well snatch the fourth champions league place. They have the 5th best away record and this weekend travel to Valencia with 5 wins in the last 7 games and away from home only Villareal (a game I watched) and Barcelona have kept them scoreless in the last 11 games. They have lost just 6 times away this season and the unpredictable Getafe and Recreativo are the only teams outside the top 6 to beat them in those games. They visit Valencia who have had a truly awful time since Koeman took over. They have won just 3 of the last 19 games and have only won once in the last 9 at home. Only Levante, rock bottom and also from Valencia, have a worse home record than them this season and Koeman chucked out some senior players when he arrived and turned a lot of people against him. The press don’t seem to be too impressed either and the team only seem to perform in big games, like away to Real Madrid recently or the Copa del Rey. The AH of Racing 0, +0.5 looks very good value being above evens.
++ Asian Handicap – Racing
Santander (0, +0.5) @ 2.05 on Bet365 (1pt)

5 points bet in total.

Spinner Rinse

4 selection rather than 5 this weekend and see if it makes any difference. Sunderland to beat ManCity (prem), Preston to beat Barnsley (championship), Napoli to beat Atalanta and Palermo to beat Catania (both Italy).
++ Four-fold accumulator @ 17.71 on Bet365

NOTES

On Monday night Chelsea play Wigan and there will be a bet in that game on the winning margin. Games will be updated on Monday morning and that bet will be added when the blog is updated.

11 Apr, 08 | Comments Closed