SSS Tips
Very happy with the bets I have found this weekend and hopeful for a good return.
A huge weekend in the Championship as 3 plays 4, 5 plays 6 and 7 plays 8. Hopeful the mighty Palace can prevail at Watford and bring a return to the big time closer. It’s the Barcelona derby in Spain and an out of form Espanyol probably won’t be able to challenge Barca and then it’s the champions league again next week.
A corner bet to begin.
Fulham v Liverpool (prem – sat 3pm local time)
I was surprised by the handicap quote for this game but looking at the stats it looks about right, but that's just looking at the base topline stats and there's more than that to it. In Fulham home games the away team averages a +0.7 corner supremacy and for Liverpool away they average a +1.5 corner supremacy. In Liverpool's first 6 away games they lost the corner match bet 5 of 6 times but since then in 10 games have won 7 out of 10 (each time by 2 or more) and drawn at Reading and only lost at Chelsea and Arsenal. If we drop the games against the other big 4, as we know these produce low corners, they average exactly 8 corners in the last 7 matches. Fulham average just 5.8 corners at home and managed just 3, 4 and 4 corners in games against the other big 4. In the 7 home games they have played in 2008 they average under 4.5 corners and really I would think a handicap of -1.5, -2 on Liverpool would be more realistic.
++ Asian Handicap Corners – Liverpool -0.5 @ 1.85 on Bet365 (1pt)
When Fulham played Sunderland a few weeks back I was a minute away from landing a HT 0-0 bet and will try again.
Wrexham v NottsCounty (eng div 2 – sat 3pm local time)
Wrexham could be relegated at the end of this game and I imagine it will be tight. 14/21 Wrexham home games have been draws at HT and 13 of those were 0-0 and 5 of the last 6 home games for the have been 0-0 at HT. For Notts County 11/21 have been HT draws and 8 of those were 0-0. 4 of the last 6 County away games were 0-0 and they didn’t score in the first half in any of these games. Taking the 0-0s it’s 21/42 which is evens so with the nature of the game being tight the price of 2.6 is value.
++ Half Time Score – 0-0 @ 2.6 on Bet365 (1pt)
A further different style of bet before we get to the more straightforward ones.
St Etienne v Lorient (france – sat 8pm local time)
I have kept an eye on St Etienne recently and started writing this same bet a few weeks back but bottled it and have to go for it this time. St Etienne have amazingly conceded just 4 goals in 16 away games. It’s an amazing record that 75% of their home games have resulted in a clean sheet and I am betting on there being one more. Lorient are the visitors and they have scored the 4th least amount of goals away from home this season and have scored in just 1 of the past 8 away games. There will be more markets for this later like clean sheet but I want to get this message out so the Away team to score – No is the only market and Expekt offer 2.15, where I’ll be betting this, but I’ll put in the Sporting bet price of evens. I will add a note later if I see more prices.
++ Away Team to Score – No @ 2 on Sporting Bet (1pt)
The more traditional fare.
Wigan v Tottenham (prem – sat 3pm local time)
Away from home this season Spurs have been poor managing just 2 wins in 17 games and these wins came at rock bottom Derby and a good result at Portsmouth. Wigan drew with Chelsea in the week and have only lost 2 of their last 8 matches and looking at home form have win 4 of the last 5 and lost just 2 in the last 10. They can be backed at scratch (0) on the AH and using the AH console you can see this would have been a winner 16 times, lost just 7 and voided 10 times. That’s 16/23 wins (70%) and should be odds of 1.44 and not the 1.93 available. With the good recent from of Wigan this looks worth a point. This price seems to be going as the draw no bet was 1.95 earlier on Bet365 and was cut to 1.83 and the Asian Handicap has been cut to 1.9
++ Asian Handicap – Wigan (0) @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)
Lens v Socheaux (france – sat 5:10pm local time)
Like someone smuggling cheap alcohol it’s back to France again for the next bet. At home this season Lens have won just 4/16 matches and just one of the last 10. They have drawn 7 of those 10 but really aren’t winning at the moment. They have the worst record in the division over the last 10 games and have managed just 5 of a possible 30 points. Socheaux arrive unbeaten in 9 games and have had a great run taking 19 of the available 30 points in the last 10 games and moving themselves to safety. Maybe they don’t have as much to play for but they have the form and will be very hard to beat. Away from home only Lyon have a better record than them and they have won 4 on the bounce. I could see them winning and would be surprised if they lose so taking the AH (0, +0.5) we get a small profit if they draw.
++ Asian Handicap – Socheaux (0, +0.5) @ 2.025 on Bet365 (1pt)
Below is the bet already advised on Thursday night and the price still stands.
Real Zaragoza v Recreativo Huelva (spain – sat 8pm local time)
Last weekend Recreativo gave Barcelona a run for their money and it was interesting to see the first choice Barça rearguard being given the runaround by former Liverpool striker Sinama-Pongolle and Villareal loanee Rubin. Recre have lost 3 of their last 10 matches but those defeats were against Real Madrid with some dubious ref decisions, a crazy 7-1 defeat at Mallorca and a loss away at 5th place Santander. None of these a disgrace and it’s a bit of a surprise to see them at such a long price against a Zaragoza team in crisis. Zaragoza have taken just 5 points from a possible 30. They have won just once in the last 10 games, losing 7 of those and are on their 3rd manager of the season. The fans have been on their back and stayed behind after the last home game, a 3-0 defeat by Betis, to scream abuse at each player as he got in his car. This game is a relegation battle and with Zaragoza in the bottom 3 and Recre one place above them but 3 points better off it is the classic 5 pointer and a Recreativo win would put Zaragoza at least 5 points from safety. The pressure is all on Zaragoza and Recreativo are the team in better form and the price on offer looks crazy.
++ Win Market – Recreativo @ 4.75 on Bet365 (1pt)
6 points bet in total.
Spinner Rinse
A sucker for punishment. Middlesboro to beat Bolton (Prem), Rochdale to beat Morecombe (lge 2), Roma to beat Livorno, Fiorentina to beat Palermo (both Italy) and Sevilla to beat Almeria (Spain).
++ Five-fold accumulator @ 9.98 on Skybet
NOTES
All games will be updated on Monday morning.
