MidWeek 8.5 (30/09/08)

The Champions League is back and Bayern Muncih look worth opposing against Lyon. Munchen have taken just 8 of a possible 24 points this season, whereas Lyon have 19 of a possible 21 and made a great start. The 3.6 Paddy Power offer looks about right rather than the 4.5 on Boyles and Skybet.

One game in the championship stood out which was Blackpool at QPR as Blackpool look a very good price but I couldn’t find the right bet. I was about to have a blank day but then saw the one League One fixture and like the look of it.

Colchester v Leicester (English League One: Tuesday 8pm BST)

Leicester have lost just one game this season, which was against the impressive Millwall. In their 7 matches they have scored 13 goals, let in 3 and had clean sheets in 4/7 matches. If they were to win tonight they would go top by 1 point. They have won 3-0 and 4-1 in their last 2 away games and travel to Colchester who have not won yet at home and only scored 2 goals in those 3 games. They have conceded on average more than 2 goals in their seven games so far this season and it might not be that they are that bad but I think Leicester have started well and I like the price on offer. In the last 2 seasons the four fixtures between these sides have been draws so immediately the security of the AH appeals. The line of Leicester (0, -0.5) is available at 2.15 on Canbet and Pinnacle and with Leicester a best priced 2.5 for the win I think its good value. There are not a lot of games to go on this season but in the 3 Colchester home and 3 Leicester away games this season this bet would have won 3 times and half void/loss the other 3.

++ Asian Handicap – Leicester (0, -0.5) @ 2.14 on Ladbrokes (1pt) – 2.15 on Pinnacle/Canbet and 2.1 on Bet365

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

30 Sep, 08 | Comments Closed

Week 8 Roundup (29/09/08)

Last weekends roundup wasn’t nice to write but this one is a joy. A full house on the weekend and a bit gutted as last season I always did an accumulator on all the selections but hadn’t done that yet this season. I think it would have been around 12.5 on Bet365 (can only bet Chelsea once so would have only got Leeds from the double)! I watched Sporting Gijón lose to Villareal on Saturday night but was really pleased with how well they played and they deserved much more from the game. They missed some good chances and the goal was a clear handball but they are out of the crazy set of games now so hopefully can start to accumulate some points. It’s no coincidence that them and racing sit at the bottom and they were the first two teams to run the Sevilla-Barcelona-Real Madrid-Villareal gauntlet.

Sevilla won at Atletico Madrid and I got that game wrong and glad I didn’t bet on it. Atletico now have a tough 3 games and have to get at least a couple of wins to prove they are real challengers and sadly are missing a few players like Forlan, Maniche and Simao. I was not sure about Valencia but they have kept up their good start and look to have shaken off all the bad effects of Koemen’s time there. I think Edu is a fantastic player and would like to see him go a bit of time injury free and with Villa and the impressive 20 year old Mata adding goals they coulddo well.

Back to the weekend andChelsea won 2-0 away and with the bookies pricing that score up at 6 it shows how they don’t miss a trick as those were seriously low odds. We won the AH bet andLeeds winning 1-0 against Hereford meant the double was landed as well. Spurs beat Pompey 6-3 in the corner count and very pleased with that one and then Millwall won 2-1 against Swindon and keep up their good start. Wiped out last weekends losses and back into the positive again.

14 bets (13 points staked) :: 7 win – 1 void – 6 losses :: +2.08

* This does not include the 2 antepost selections a Carew scored again and is now as low as 16/1 with Stan James

A full set in the championship this midweek so will have a look around but unlikely to find any bets so probably back next weekend.

29 Sep, 08 | Comments Closed

Week 8 (26/09/08)

Well I didn’t get as much done on the site as I wanted this week. The mini-console is still without the cards section and there is a list of snags for the main console. This is what I will concentrate on next and add all the badges etc. Once it’s completed and I’m happy I’ll add the cards tab to the mini-console and snag that too.

Some interesting games around this week and for me the game between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla will be a good indicator of how ready Atletico are. The fixture list in Spain is ridiculous this season with teams playing Sevilla, Barcelona, Real Madrid and then Villareal on consecutive weeks. Atletico are just entering this phase and I’ll be at the Molinon on Saturday evening to see Gijón play Villareal and end their tunnel of death against those teams. Always a bit tricky this weekend as the Champions League is on again next week and the Atletico game against Liverpool should be lively.

Last weekend I got a bit burnt so have decided to stick with what I know and really try and use stats from this season and last to justify the bets. Once we get to 10 games in most leagues more patterns should emerge and bets be easier to find.

Onto this weekends games.

Stoke v Chelsea (English Premiership: Saturday 3pm BST)

I looked at this game from many angles anddespite Stoke getting the better of us last weekend I want to oppose them again. Chelsea have started the season well and scored 10 goals in their 5 games and everyone expects them to beat Stoke. I looked at angles like the HT/FT result, them to win 2-0 etc but nothing stood up well enough. 2-0 is a best priced 6.5 and I would think backing Chelsea to win by that scoreline in their away games (minus the big 4 clashes) would yield a decent profit. You’d only need it to come in 3 times to break even and last season it came up 5 times. The Asian Handicap was the bet that appealed to me here with the line set at Chelsea (-1, -1.5 or -1.25). I looked at last seasons games and taking games against teams that finished in the bottom half, as you expect Stoke will, they lost the bet once, had it half void/half lost 5 times and won it on 4 occasions. At the price on offer tomorrow it would have produced a very small profit and I think this season they may score more goals than last time. Would have been a winner against ManCity as well and even though they travel to Romania this week I think the team they put out will be good enough to win, and hopefully win well.

++ Asian Handicap – Chelsea (-1, -1.5) @ 1.98 on Bet365 (1pt)

Portsmouth v Tottenham (English Premiership: Sunday 1:30pm BST)

I do like a corner bet and looking at the weekends fixtures this one stands out. This season Spurs average 8.8 corners (8.5 in away matches) to Portsmouths 3.6 (3.5 in home matches) and Spurs get the handicap. If we look at last season in all Pompey home games the average supremacy was 0.7 and for Spurs away the average supremacy was -0.2 so therefore the Pompey -0.5 quote is almost spot on as the average there is 0.45. However, the one thing about Pompey last season was that after the opening 7 games they won the supremacy just 5 times and in those 12 games averaged just 4.5 corners. A corner count of 5 or 6 for Spurs could well win this and I think they’re more than capable of that and the evens quote makes this bet very appealing.

++ Asian Handicap Corners – Tottenham (+0.5) @ 2 on Bet365 (1pt)

Stoke v Chelsea (English Premiership: Saturday 3pm BST) / Leeds v Hereford (English League One: Saturday 3pm BST)

I want to include this game in a 1 point double as well. Last season the only away games Chelseadidn’t win were against Spurs, Villa, Pompey, Liverpool, Man Utd and Arsenal and are very consistent against the lower clubs. Dropping big 4 games they won 13/16 which is over 80% and odds of 1.23. Last season Leeds won 15/23 home games and although that gives them odds of 1.53 which is higher than the 1.4 on offer they have started this season very well and have bottom of the table Hereford as visitors. They have lost 5 of their 7 matches and you would expect Leeds to win.

++ Win Double (Chelsea/Leeds) @ 1.9 on Blue Sq/Tote/888 (1pt) – 1.96 on Betfred

Swindon v Millwall (English League One: Sunday 2pm BST

I looked at this game a few times and in the end have decided to go for it. Swindon have lost 1/3 home games this season and have just one in the last 6 games. Millwall are the visitors and they have won 4 on the bounce and their only loss this season came in a 4-3 ding dong away to league leaders Oldham. In their 6 other games they have conceded just 2 goals and although the win market at 3 appeals I will stick on the Asian handicap.

++ Asian Handicap – Millwall (0) on Bet365 @ 2.25 (1pt) – 2.29 on Pinnacle

4 points staked on the weekend.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

26 Sep, 08 | Comments Closed

MidWeek 7.5 Roundup (25/09/08)

Well a very small loss on the day. Real Madrid gave Gijón a right spanking winning 7-1 and maybe there would have been better bets based around them scoring a lot of goals. Gijón have lost to them, Barça and Sevilla in consecutive games leaking 17 goals but have managed to score in every game which at least gives them hope. They host Villareal on Saturday and unsurprisingly Villareal have been cut from evens to a best priced 1.73 for that game. Atletico Madrid won impressively against Getafe and a shame I didn’t take that bet on but both they and Villareal look very good prospects for the league. Barcelona won 3-2 after surrendering a 2 goal lead against Betis and look a bit suspect.

Espanyol let us down losing 2-0 to Sevilla. Last season Sevilla played some fantastic football and the first half against Zaragoza when they went ahead 5-0 was possibly one of the best performances I have ever seen. This season they don’t look too hot but did the business last night. If I had known Tamudo wasn’t playing I might have been less keen on the bet but Eurosport never mentioned that. I will look for better sources of news.

10 bets (9 points staked) :: 3 win – 1 void – 6 losses :: -2.05

Back with the weekend selections tomorrow.

25 Sep, 08 | Comments Closed

MidWeek 7.5 (24/09/08)

Sevilla v Espanyol (La Liga: Wednesday 10pmCET)

I notice that Sevilla have now been pushed out from 3rd favourites and now have Atletico Madrid, Villareal and in some places Valencia above them and rightly so in my opinion. Alves, Keita and Poulsen were enormous performers for them last season and it’s a hard void to fill. I wasn’t too impressed with the managers decision in some games last season and from what I saw in the game against Gijón I might well be right. They won 4-3 but Sporting were comical at the back and managed to lead 2-0 and 3-2. I am not sure about the Santander game where Sevilla drew 1-1 on the opening day but they were very lucky to survive the derby against Betis without conceding. Espanyol lost Reira in the summer to Liverpool but retained both Tamudo and Garcia who are capable of scoring at any time. Last season they met one day later on 25th September and Espanyol won 3-2. The big question is what to bet here as I think Espanyol at 6.5 on Skybet is cracking value but then so is 4.5 on draw no bet (Paddy Power) as well as 2.3 on the double chance (Paddy Power). I am going to combine two bets here.

++ Win Market – Espanyol @ 6 on Bet365/Paddy Power (Skybet 6.5) (½pt)
++ Double Chance – Espanyol @ 2.3 on Paddy Power (½pt)

Real Madrid v Sporting Gijón (La Liga: Wednesday 10pmCET)

Sporting Gijón have been given a ridiculous schedule to begin with and have played Sevilla and Barcelona this month and still have to play Real Madrid and Villareal, both of which games I would expect them to lose. By how much is the question! I noticed that for the Real Madrid game the AH line is set at Real – 2 which I think has some value. Real only won by more than 2 goals in 4/19 home matches last season but looking at the teams they lost to or beat by just one goal you see Valencia, Espanyol, Getafe, Villareal, Mallorca, Atletico Madrid andMurcia. Of all that lot Getafe andMurcia are the poorest teams and the Getafe game is a derby. So my point is that I find it hard to believe they will win by less than one goal. As I said above Sporting were comical against Sevilla and have leaked 12 goals in their first 3 games including 6 against Barça. With the bookies offering less than 1.5 on over 2.5 goals you have to expect Madrid to get quite a few and I think the -2 handicapwill be beaten and really cannot see them not winning by at least 2 goals so this can’t be a loser.

++ Asian Handicap – Real Madrid @ 1.9 on Bet365 (Canbet 1.89/VC Bet 1.88) (1pt)

The other game I like the look of is Atletico to win at Getafe, which is sort of a derby. Luis Garcia is looking great for Atletico and having improved their defence and added Sinima-Pongolle as another striker they really can do well this season. The price is nice but the stats don’t back me up enough from last season so I will not put it on record.

2 points staked

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

23 Sep, 08 | Comments Closed