MidWeek 8.5 (30/09/08)

The Champions League is back and Bayern Muncih look worth opposing against Lyon. Munchen have taken just 8 of a possible 24 points this season, whereas Lyon have 19 of a possible 21 and made a great start. The 3.6 Paddy Power offer looks about right rather than the 4.5 on Boyles and Skybet.

One game in the championship stood out which was Blackpool at QPR as Blackpool look a very good price but I couldn’t find the right bet. I was about to have a blank day but then saw the one League One fixture and like the look of it.

Colchester v Leicester (English League One: Tuesday 8pm BST)

Leicester have lost just one game this season, which was against the impressive Millwall. In their 7 matches they have scored 13 goals, let in 3 and had clean sheets in 4/7 matches. If they were to win tonight they would go top by 1 point. They have won 3-0 and 4-1 in their last 2 away games and travel to Colchester who have not won yet at home and only scored 2 goals in those 3 games. They have conceded on average more than 2 goals in their seven games so far this season and it might not be that they are that bad but I think Leicester have started well and I like the price on offer. In the last 2 seasons the four fixtures between these sides have been draws so immediately the security of the AH appeals. The line of Leicester (0, -0.5) is available at 2.15 on Canbet and Pinnacle and with Leicester a best priced 2.5 for the win I think its good value. There are not a lot of games to go on this season but in the 3 Colchester home and 3 Leicester away games this season this bet would have won 3 times and half void/loss the other 3.

++ Asian Handicap – Leicester (0, -0.5) @ 2.14 on Ladbrokes (1pt) – 2.15 on Pinnacle/Canbet and 2.1 on Bet365

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

September 30, 2008 | Comments Closed

Week 8 Roundup (29/09/08)

Last weekends roundup wasn’t nice to write but this one is a joy. A full house on the weekend and a bit gutted as last season I always did an accumulator on all the selections but hadn’t done that yet this season. I think it would have been around 12.5 on Bet365 (can only bet Chelsea once so would have only got Leeds from the double)! I watched Sporting Gijón lose to Villareal on Saturday night but was really pleased with how well they played and they deserved much more from the game. They missed some good chances and the goal was a clear handball but they are out of the crazy set of games now so hopefully can start to accumulate some points. It’s no coincidence that them and racing sit at the bottom and they were the first two teams to run the Sevilla-Barcelona-Real Madrid-Villareal gauntlet.

Sevilla won at Atletico Madrid and I got that game wrong and glad I didn’t bet on it. Atletico now have a tough 3 games and have to get at least a couple of wins to prove they are real challengers and sadly are missing a few players like Forlan, Maniche and Simao. I was not sure about Valencia but they have kept up their good start and look to have shaken off all the bad effects of Koemen’s time there. I think Edu is a fantastic player and would like to see him go a bit of time injury free and with Villa and the impressive 20 year old Mata adding goals they coulddo well.

Back to the weekend andChelsea won 2-0 away and with the bookies pricing that score up at 6 it shows how they don’t miss a trick as those were seriously low odds. We won the AH bet andLeeds winning 1-0 against Hereford meant the double was landed as well. Spurs beat Pompey 6-3 in the corner count and very pleased with that one and then Millwall won 2-1 against Swindon and keep up their good start. Wiped out last weekends losses and back into the positive again.

14 bets (13 points staked) :: 7 win – 1 void – 6 losses :: +2.08

* This does not include the 2 antepost selections a Carew scored again and is now as low as 16/1 with Stan James

A full set in the championship this midweek so will have a look around but unlikely to find any bets so probably back next weekend.

September 29, 2008 | Comments Closed

Week 8 (26/09/08)

Well I didn’t get as much done on the site as I wanted this week. The mini-console is still without the cards section and there is a list of snags for the main console. This is what I will concentrate on next and add all the badges etc. Once it’s completed and I’m happy I’ll add the cards tab to the mini-console and snag that too.

Some interesting games around this week and for me the game between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla will be a good indicator of how ready Atletico are. The fixture list in Spain is ridiculous this season with teams playing Sevilla, Barcelona, Real Madrid and then Villareal on consecutive weeks. Atletico are just entering this phase and I’ll be at the Molinon on Saturday evening to see Gijón play Villareal and end their tunnel of death against those teams. Always a bit tricky this weekend as the Champions League is on again next week and the Atletico game against Liverpool should be lively.

Last weekend I got a bit burnt so have decided to stick with what I know and really try and use stats from this season and last to justify the bets. Once we get to 10 games in most leagues more patterns should emerge and bets be easier to find.

Onto this weekends games.

Stoke v Chelsea (English Premiership: Saturday 3pm BST)

I looked at this game from many angles anddespite Stoke getting the better of us last weekend I want to oppose them again. Chelsea have started the season well and scored 10 goals in their 5 games and everyone expects them to beat Stoke. I looked at angles like the HT/FT result, them to win 2-0 etc but nothing stood up well enough. 2-0 is a best priced 6.5 and I would think backing Chelsea to win by that scoreline in their away games (minus the big 4 clashes) would yield a decent profit. You’d only need it to come in 3 times to break even and last season it came up 5 times. The Asian Handicap was the bet that appealed to me here with the line set at Chelsea (-1, -1.5 or -1.25). I looked at last seasons games and taking games against teams that finished in the bottom half, as you expect Stoke will, they lost the bet once, had it half void/half lost 5 times and won it on 4 occasions. At the price on offer tomorrow it would have produced a very small profit and I think this season they may score more goals than last time. Would have been a winner against ManCity as well and even though they travel to Romania this week I think the team they put out will be good enough to win, and hopefully win well.

++ Asian Handicap – Chelsea (-1, -1.5) @ 1.98 on Bet365 (1pt)

Portsmouth v Tottenham (English Premiership: Sunday 1:30pm BST)

I do like a corner bet and looking at the weekends fixtures this one stands out. This season Spurs average 8.8 corners (8.5 in away matches) to Portsmouths 3.6 (3.5 in home matches) and Spurs get the handicap. If we look at last season in all Pompey home games the average supremacy was 0.7 and for Spurs away the average supremacy was -0.2 so therefore the Pompey -0.5 quote is almost spot on as the average there is 0.45. However, the one thing about Pompey last season was that after the opening 7 games they won the supremacy just 5 times and in those 12 games averaged just 4.5 corners. A corner count of 5 or 6 for Spurs could well win this and I think they’re more than capable of that and the evens quote makes this bet very appealing.

++ Asian Handicap Corners – Tottenham (+0.5) @ 2 on Bet365 (1pt)

Stoke v Chelsea (English Premiership: Saturday 3pm BST) / Leeds v Hereford (English League One: Saturday 3pm BST)

I want to include this game in a 1 point double as well. Last season the only away games Chelseadidn’t win were against Spurs, Villa, Pompey, Liverpool, Man Utd and Arsenal and are very consistent against the lower clubs. Dropping big 4 games they won 13/16 which is over 80% and odds of 1.23. Last season Leeds won 15/23 home games and although that gives them odds of 1.53 which is higher than the 1.4 on offer they have started this season very well and have bottom of the table Hereford as visitors. They have lost 5 of their 7 matches and you would expect Leeds to win.

++ Win Double (Chelsea/Leeds) @ 1.9 on Blue Sq/Tote/888 (1pt) – 1.96 on Betfred

Swindon v Millwall (English League One: Sunday 2pm BST

I looked at this game a few times and in the end have decided to go for it. Swindon have lost 1/3 home games this season and have just one in the last 6 games. Millwall are the visitors and they have won 4 on the bounce and their only loss this season came in a 4-3 ding dong away to league leaders Oldham. In their 6 other games they have conceded just 2 goals and although the win market at 3 appeals I will stick on the Asian handicap.

++ Asian Handicap – Millwall (0) on Bet365 @ 2.25 (1pt) – 2.29 on Pinnacle

4 points staked on the weekend.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

September 26, 2008 | Comments Closed

MidWeek 7.5 Roundup (25/09/08)

Well a very small loss on the day. Real Madrid gave Gijón a right spanking winning 7-1 and maybe there would have been better bets based around them scoring a lot of goals. Gijón have lost to them, Barça and Sevilla in consecutive games leaking 17 goals but have managed to score in every game which at least gives them hope. They host Villareal on Saturday and unsurprisingly Villareal have been cut from evens to a best priced 1.73 for that game. Atletico Madrid won impressively against Getafe and a shame I didn’t take that bet on but both they and Villareal look very good prospects for the league. Barcelona won 3-2 after surrendering a 2 goal lead against Betis and look a bit suspect.

Espanyol let us down losing 2-0 to Sevilla. Last season Sevilla played some fantastic football and the first half against Zaragoza when they went ahead 5-0 was possibly one of the best performances I have ever seen. This season they don’t look too hot but did the business last night. If I had known Tamudo wasn’t playing I might have been less keen on the bet but Eurosport never mentioned that. I will look for better sources of news.

10 bets (9 points staked) :: 3 win – 1 void – 6 losses :: -2.05

Back with the weekend selections tomorrow.

September 25, 2008 | Comments Closed

MidWeek 7.5 (24/09/08)

Sevilla v Espanyol (La Liga: Wednesday 10pmCET)

I notice that Sevilla have now been pushed out from 3rd favourites and now have Atletico Madrid, Villareal and in some places Valencia above them and rightly so in my opinion. Alves, Keita and Poulsen were enormous performers for them last season and it’s a hard void to fill. I wasn’t too impressed with the managers decision in some games last season and from what I saw in the game against Gijón I might well be right. They won 4-3 but Sporting were comical at the back and managed to lead 2-0 and 3-2. I am not sure about the Santander game where Sevilla drew 1-1 on the opening day but they were very lucky to survive the derby against Betis without conceding. Espanyol lost Reira in the summer to Liverpool but retained both Tamudo and Garcia who are capable of scoring at any time. Last season they met one day later on 25th September and Espanyol won 3-2. The big question is what to bet here as I think Espanyol at 6.5 on Skybet is cracking value but then so is 4.5 on draw no bet (Paddy Power) as well as 2.3 on the double chance (Paddy Power). I am going to combine two bets here.

++ Win Market – Espanyol @ 6 on Bet365/Paddy Power (Skybet 6.5) (½pt)
++ Double Chance – Espanyol @ 2.3 on Pa
ddy Power (½pt)

Real Madrid v Sporting Gijón (La Liga: Wednesday 10pmCET)

Sporting Gijón have been given a ridiculous schedule to begin with and have played Sevilla and Barcelona this month and still have to play Real Madrid and Villareal, both of which games I would expect them to lose. By how much is the question! I noticed that for the Real Madrid game the AH line is set at Real – 2 which I think has some value. Real only won by more than 2 goals in 4/19 home matches last season but looking at the teams they lost to or beat by just one goal you see Valencia, Espanyol, Getafe, Villareal, Mallorca, Atletico Madrid andMurcia. Of all that lot Getafe andMurcia are the poorest teams and the Getafe game is a derby. So my point is that I find it hard to believe they will win by less than one goal. As I said above Sporting were comical against Sevilla and have leaked 12 goals in their first 3 games including 6 against Barça. With the bookies offering less than 1.5 on over 2.5 goals you have to expect Madrid to get quite a few and I think the -2 handicapwill be beaten and really cannot see them not winning by at least 2 goals so this can’t be a loser.

++ Asian Handicap – Real Madrid @ 1.9 on Bet365 (Canbet 1.89/VC Bet 1.88) (1pt)

The other game I like the look of is Atletico to win at Getafe, which is sort of a derby. Luis Garcia is looking great for Atletico and having improved their defence and added Sinima-Pongolle as another striker they really can do well this season. The price is nice but the stats don’t back me up enough from last season so I will not put it on record.

2 points staked

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

September 23, 2008 | Comments Closed

Week 7 Roundup (22/09/08)

Sometimes you get lured into a false sense of security that betting is easy and after then you get slapped down. This weekend was the slapping as 4 of the 5 selections lost. I’ll come back to them in a bit but in Spain Real Madrid and Barcelona both won with Barça crushing my local team Gijón 6-1 and the atmosphere before the game on the streets was amazing. Sadly, I didn’t have a ticket! Atletico Madrid beat Recre 4-0 and both them and Villareal look very strong this year and I could see them breaking the Madrid/Barcelona monopoly. There’s a full set of games this midweek in Spain, as well as Italy, and hopefully there might be some bets there. Espanyol look a massive price to win in Sevilla. Sevilla somehow managed to hold out against Betis in their local derby and I think Espanyol at 6.5 have to be bet.

Back to this weekend and Stoke drew 0-0 at Anfield scuppering both our bets. Liverpool didn’t get the early goal I hoped for and then had 20 corners as they piled on the pressure and I don’t think the corner bet could have been more wrong. Birmingham lost 1-0 to Blackpool and looking back the 1.91 on under 2.5 really was the bet. Bradford lost 3-1 at home and Bury won 2-1 at Barnet for our only winner on the weekend.

Carew scored again which was good for the top goalscorer bet and Ladbrokes are still asleep having him at 100/1 when both Skybet and Sporting Bet have cut him to 33/1.

7 bets (7 points staked) :: 2 win – 1 void – 4 losses :: -1.95

Will plough on with the mini-console this week and hopefully get the Asian Handicap component in there today. Will look at the midweek matches tonight and tomorrow and will post on Tuesday evening.

September 22, 2008 | Comments Closed

Week 7 (19/09/08) – Additional Selection and prices update

Had a chance to look through the corners and come up with one additional bet.

Liverpool v Stoke (English Premiership: Saturday 3pmBST)

Back at Anfield again for a corner bet but this time on the Asian Totals. They give the line of 11 so we can take under 11 at 1.8, which isn’t the best price, but this bet will only lose if there are 12 corners or more and that looks unlikely. Both Stoke’s away games this season have had under 10 corners but in games like this Liverpool should dictate the corner count. With any luck they will score fairly early, then build a lead and pass the game out without needing to pile on pressure and get corners. The main basis for this bet is Anfield last season where 14/19 matches (74% = odds of 1.36) were under 11 corners and 4 of the games where the corners were above 10 came after March when the texture of the season changes.

++ Asian Total Corners – Under 11 @ 1.8 on Bet365 (1pt)

Of the bets listed earlier all the prices are still available including 1.87 at Boylesports on Liverpool to win with a clean sheet.

5 points now staked on the weekend.

September 19, 2008 | Comments Closed

Week 7 (19/09/08)

For the first time this season I was able to spend part of Thursday night looking at games. As it’s so early in the season I just stuck to what I feel I know best.

I have managed to get the corner mini-console up and running now which is good news. You can see it by clicking Launch Beta MiniCon on the main menu or here.

Called a few of the games right in midweek but personally was let down by Watford. My friend the Bear once again reminded me to steer clear of the Championship as it can’t be trusted. Atletico Madrid looked very good in the Champions League and Aguero really is a fantastic player who scores freely. I think they could be improved this season and maybe they can launch some sort of title charge as well. Villareal drew at Old Trafford as they did the last time they met in the Champions League and that season United didn’t make it through the knockout stages and Villareal went on to the semis!

Onto this weekends games.

Liverpool v Stoke (English Premiership: Saturday 3pmBST)

Liverpool are rightly short-priced favourites for this game but searching round I think there is some value to be had. At Anfield last season they kept clean sheets in 9/19 matches and against the newly promoted teams they drew 0-0, won 6-0 and won 3-0. This season they have not kept a clean sheet in either of their first 2 games (both 2-1 wins against Man Utd and Middlesboro), but those are the only 2 goals they have conceded in 4 matches. Although Stoke have scored 7 goals in their 4 games so far, they have let in 10 and I can see Liverpool winning comfortably. I have a feeling that this could be Liverpool’s season and they have started very well. Boylesports offer 1.87 on Liverpool to win with a clean sheet and this price is just much too high, considering Bet365 offer 1.62 on the same bet. I am not sure how long this price will hold for so the alternative bet is for Liverpool to win by 2 or more goals. This is the bet I will use for the records.

++ Clean Sheet – Liverpool to win with a clean sheet @ 1.87 on Boyles (1pt)
or the alternative is
++ Winning Margin – Liverpool to win by 2 goals or more @ 1.7 on Bet365 (1pt)

Bolton used to be a bit of a hoodoo ground for Arsenal but they won their last time in the league as well as in the FA cup and I think they should win tomorrow and with a clean sheet as well. Bolton have only scored 4 goals this season and 3 of those were against Stoke, whereas Arsenal have let in just 1 in 4 matches. It’s just a bit too similar to the above bet which is why I’ll leave it. I think Bolton could go down this season.

Birmingham v Blackpool (English Championship: Saturday 3pmBST)

Birmingham have started the season very well with 16 of a possible 18 points. They should continue this against Blackpool and from the console the think that stuck out was that all Brum home and all Blackpool away games were under 2.5 goals. In fact taking all 12 games they have played 9/12 (75% = odds of 1.33) have been under 2.5 goals. The 1.91 offered by Skybet looks very generous for this but I will take a slightly more risky approach and take ½pt on 1-0 and 2-0 as Birmingham have kept clean sheets in all home games so far and Blackpool have managed only 4 goals in 6 matches this season.

++ Correct Score – 1-0 and 2-0 @ 7 (both) on Betfred/Ladbrokes/Canbet (2 x ½pt = 1pt)

Barnet v Bury (English League Two: Saturday 3pmBST)

This is probably the best looking bet of the weekend. I checked the BBC website and although Barnet have a couple of players back to fitness  it says ‘Bury manager Alan Knill has no new injury or suspension problems for the game at Underhill’. Barnet have managed just 1 point from their first 6 games, leaking 15 goals and scoring just 4. Bury on the other hand are unbeaten, winning 4/6 and scoring 11 goals. Bet365 offer 2.4 on them to win but I’ll take the Asian Handicap (AH) route. I really do love this bet and consider it the best bet in football. Having just 2 outcomes means the bookies overround is lower and gives you a little safety net. They offer Bury (0, -0.5) which means a draw returns half the stake but a win and we win. Pinnacle offer 2.07 on this and Canbet 2.08 but for the records I’ll take Bet365 at 2.05

++ Asian Handicap – Bury (0, -0.5) @ 2.05 on Bet365 (Ladbrokes 2.04) (1pt)

Bradford v Bournemouth (English League Two: Saturday 3pmBST)

There are 3 games in England this weekend where both teams begin with the letter ‘B’ and looks like I am betting on all of them. Bradford got our season off to winning start last weekend and with them entertaining a Bournemouth side with 3 draws and 3 losses in their first 6 games you would expect them to win again. Bradford/Bradford HT/FT looks good value at 2.63 on Skybet and I was tempted by ½pt on that but will stick to the AH again and go a full point. Bradford (-0.5, -1) is priced at 1.88 on Pinnacle, 1.85 on VC and 1.825 on Bet365 and it looks good value. A win for Bradford and we record a profit and a win by more than 1 goal and we take the lot. 4/5 Bradford victories have been by more than 1 goal and as Bournemouth average 0.67 goals per game and Bradford 2.33 we should be close.

++ Asian Handicap – Bradford (-0.5, -1) @ 1.825 on Bet365 (VC 1.85/Ladbrokes 1.82) (1pt)

4 points staked on the weekend and I will look through the corners in a bit and see if there is anything of interest there. If there is I will add it up later this evening and also check through the available prices for the above bets to check they still hold.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

| Comments Closed

MidWeek 6.5 (16/09/08)

I would like to have made some suggestions today but time has got the better of me. The time I would normally spend looking for bets in the evening I am spending getting the mini-console ready. I will do some more on that over the next few days and nights and with luck that will be completed and it will be betting as usual at the weekend. I did like the look of both Preston andWatford in the Championship and I may well put them in an accumulator with Liverpool and someone else in the Champions League.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

September 16, 2008 | Comments Closed

Week 6 Roundup (12/09/08)

Always nice to start with a profit and I’d take 1 point profit every week till the end of the season. Managed to watch some games as well and saw Gijón lose to Sevilla which wasn’t pretty. Gijón were abysmal defensively but I have a feeling Sevilla will not be anything like the force they were last season without Alves, Poulsen and Keita. They still have a goal threat but those three places are an enormous loss and I also don’t think the coach is as good as Ramos was when he was there. Once they have some tougher games I may look to oppose them but it is very hard to judge anything after 2 games. However, Real Madrid and Barcelona both look a bit dubious with Barça managing just 1 point from a possible 6 and Real conceding 3 goals at home. Just need another realistic contender and Atletico Madrid should be the one but they lost at the weekend as well. Maybe the most likely and consistent team will be Villareal. They lost a couple of players but have strengthened their squad overall.

That brings me on to the champions league this week. Villareal should never be 8/1 for the game at Old Trafford. They are solid, won’t concede many goals and 5/1 on draw no bet looks great value. This is the team that finished 2nd in Spain last season and when they met in the 05/06 competition both matches were 0-0. Of the other games I quite fancy Liverpool to win in Marseille at 2.4 and Atletico Madrid at 2.88 away to PSV could be value especially on the AH (0) or Draw No Bet where they can be backed at 2.03.

Back to the weekend bets. The corner bet was a void as Liverpool won 5-4 so we have our stake back. Bradford comfortably landed the handicap with a 4-1 win over Exeter.

2 bets (2 points staked) :: 1 win – 1 void – 0 losses :: +1

There is one game tonight which I will look at this afternoon, and post if there is anything, and then some championship games as well as the champions league on the other days. If there are any bets on that or the champions league I will put them up later tonight.

Also good to see Adebayor get a hatrick and him with 3 and Carew with 2 means the two antepost bets have made a good start. Carew can be backed at 100/1 at Ladbrokes at the moment which seems a bit mad as he was a best priced 80/1 before the season started.

September 15, 2008 | Comments Closed