Weekend 31st January 2009

I haven’t updated the midweek games as it has been a very hectic week. I’ll update everything on Sunday but it was nice to get the HT/FT winner. It prompted me to look at that kind of bet again and I found 8 bets this weekend where the HT/FT price seemed to be twice as big as the actual odds. I need to do some more analysis on the Spanish historical results to see how this fared.

Big game on Sunday as Liverpool host Chelsea and incredibly important for both sides with the loser really taking a psychological blow. I think Man United are much too short for the title as they have to wobble at some stage and also have been poor against the big 4 this season. In Spain we now have weeks of none of the big teams playing each other as all the big games are stacked near the season end.

A corner bet to kick off

Bolton v Tottenham (English Premier League: Sat 3pm Local Time)

Bolton have played all the big 4 at home so I removed all those games and was left with 7 matches and 4 Spurs it was 9. In those matches Bolton average 6.7 to their opponents 4.3 and Spurs average 4.8 to their opponents 6.3. These averages make the line of Bolton -1 look decent especially when the price being offered is evens. Bolton have won the corner count in all those 7 remaining games, although 2 of those games were by 1 corner so would have been void. For Spurs away in the 9 games they lost the corner count 5 times and by more than 4 on 4 of these occasions. They won the corner count in 3 of their first 4 away games and are a very different team now and I think this looks a god bet.

++ Asian Handicap Corners – Bolton (-1) @ 2 on Bet365 (1pt)

Fulham v Portsmouth (English Premier League: Sat 3pm Local Time)

Fulham have been solid at home this and only the big 4 have amassed more points than them on their own turf. Portsmouth with just 2 wins in their last 15 matches and already the pressure seems to be mounting on the unproven Adams. They have sold a few players and will have to see how the replacements manage. Away from home they have won just 2 gams all season and if we take Fulhams 6/11 home wins and add it to Pompeys 5/11 away defeats we get an evens chance with is exactly the bookies price. However, I think Pompey are a worse side now than earlier in the season and taking 7 points from their last 10 games must have damaged confidence. I want to split the stake though here on HT/FT bets as in each of Fulham’s 6 home wins they have been ahead at HT and in 3 of Fulhams 4 away losses they have been been behind at HT and odds of 3.4 on Coral seem generous when the stats say it is a 2.33 chance. Rather than bet 3.4 on Coral and 5 elsewhere I have chosen a lower price but bookmakers offering both

++ HT/FT – Fulham/Fulham @ 3.25 on Bet365/VC/Blue Sq on Bet365 (1pt)

++ HT/FT – Draw/Fulham @ 5 on Bet365/VC/Blue Sq on Bet365Hill (½pt)

 

Sporting Gijon v Sevilla (Spain: Sun 9pm Local Time – 8pmUK)

My local team hit their bunch of 4 super tough games at a bad time. They went out of the Copa del Rey to Bilbao in midweek and lost 5-1 to Getafe last weekend. They have lost 5 of the last 7 games and one of those wins came against Valladolid when they played 10 men for a lot of the game. Losing the goalie Cuellar to injury a while back was a huge blow as he made a big difference earlier in the season. They have only scored 4 goals in the last 6 games and need to outscore opponents with a poor defence. I have just seen Luis Fabiano is out for Sevilla but I don’t think that will make too much difference as Chevanton always seems eager and Maresca can play as second striker. Sevilla have won 5 of their last 7 away games including a very impressive win at La Coruna last time round. I’ve seen Sporting a few times this year and they have done exceptionally well against the teams around them but been found out against class and I think this will happen again tomorrow.

++ Win Market – Sevilla @ 2.2 on VCBet/Paddy (1pt)

3.5 points staked on the weekend.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

31 Jan, 09 | Comments Closed

Midweek 28th January 2009

I’ll catch up with last nights games at the end of the midweek but there was a small loss.

Cagliari v Siena (Italy Serie A: Wednesday 8:30pm local time)

The HT/FT bet let us down last night but I’ll give it a second chance. Only 3 points separate these two teams but both of them have great home form and shocking away form. In Cagliari’s 3 first home games they lost to Lazio and Juve and drew with Milan. Since then they have won 6/7, drawing the other, and led at half time in 5 of them. All in all they have led at HT and FT in 4/10 matches with the 4 winners all in the last 7 games. Siena have lost 8/10 away from home and lost 7 of the last 8. It seems they lose early as in 6 of these 10 games they have been losing at HT and then lost at FT. If we take the bottom line stats Cagliari winning at HT and FT looks to be a 10/20 chance which is evens and so the 3 that is available looks good value.

++ HT/FT Cagliari/Cagliari @ 3 on VC/Paddy Power/Skybet (1pt)

1 points staked.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

28 Jan, 09 | Comments Closed

Midweek 27th January 2009

Nice to have a big midweek program to go through and hope I have found some value here.

Portsmouth v Aston Villa (English Premier League: Tuesday 8pm)

I was very close to making this a bet on the Villa win and think they may well still do it but with Ashley Young missing it puts a slight doubt on it. The other bet that I am willing to do however is corners. The bottom line is 6/10 Pompey home games have featured more 12 or more corners and 7/11 Aston Villa away games. That’s over 60% of those games and equates to a price of 1.61. Villa have had 6 or more corners in 7/11 of those games and if you drop the games against teams in the big 4 you get 7/9. FrattonPark averaged just 7 corners in the first 4 matches but since then has seen 14, 15, 14, 18, 13 and 14, which is like old times!

++ Asian Total Corners – Over 11.5 @ 1.85 on Bet365 (1pt)

Leicester v Brighton (English League One: Tuesday 7:45pm)

Leicester looked locked on for promotion and haven’t lost for 13 games since they played tonight’s opponents Brighton. You have two ways of looking at that. One is that Brighton have a jinx on them or that Leicester will be out for revenge and I prefer the latter. In that run of 13 games Leicester have won 11 and the stat I like here is that Leicester have led at HT and FT in 8/14 games this season. That’s odds of 1.75 and as we can get over evens on that I think it represents some value. Brighton have lost 7 of their last 10 matches with the one win and one of the draw against teams in the bottom 6 like them. Leicester don’t win by many so I like the HT/FT bet.

++ HT/FT – Leicester/Leicester @ 2 on VC/Paddy Power/Blue Sq/Skybet (1pt)

There is one bet for Wednesday night as well but I do not have time for the write up now so will add that this evening.

2 points staked.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

27 Jan, 09 | Comments Closed

Weekend 24th January 2009 Roundup

This is one of the depressing write-ups. Of the 5 matches that made my shortlist none was a winner and only Barcelona which came up later was. Colchester drew 0-0, which was a big shock considering the amount of goals they have had previously. Barcelona won 4-1 and it could, and probably should, have been more. Both Messi and Eto’o were one-on-one at 4-1 and I was concerned it would have been sickening and ended up 4-1. The final game was Valencia and Mallorca scored early, then had a very dubious penalty before finishing the game off before half-time with a 3-0 lead. When I saw the Valencia team I was a bit gutted as both Villa and Joaquim were out injured. Villa is their goal machine and I thought from the fact he was jumping around on the bench in midweek that he was not injured. Joaquim was a shock though and it’s very hard at times to get information like this.

82 Bets (76.5 points staked) :: 30 won – 45 lost – 6 void – 1 half void :: -5.37 points

There’s a big set of midweek games so will look at those tonight and hopefully make inroads into the weekend losses..

* This does not include the 3 antepost bets.

“If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Chico Marx

26 Jan, 09 | Comments Closed

Weekend 24th January 2009

With the FA Cup being played there are less betting opportunities as I leave that well alone. In the lower leagues there were a few games I really toyed with like Peterborough to get something at Leeds and Rotherham to beat Grimsby. Rotherham would be in the playoff positions if they hadn’t points deducted but Newell has made some signings and loans. For some reason I also expect Luton to start getting some points.

Spain has reached the half way point in the season and Barcelona are still smashing it and need just 6 goals to reach 5000, more of that further down. The battle behind them is getting interesting and a few teams have started to hit form. Athletic Bilbao seem to be on a decent run and look good at Almeria and Malaga host Atletico who still aren’t convincing.

BristolCity v Colchester (English League One: Sat 3pm Local Time)

The change at Colchester since Paul Lambert came in has been immense. In their first 15 games they took just 15 points but in the 10 since have accumulated 20 of a possible 30 with just 1 defeat in the last 9 games. They have the 4th or 5th best away record in the division and have won half their away games. Bristol Rovers have a nice cushion between themselves and the relegation zone but still need to be careful. They have lost 4/11 matches at home this season and only won twice in the last 10 games and once in the last 4 at home. It looks like there will be goals as 10/12 Colchester away games have been over 2.5 goals and both teams have scored in all but one of their away matches. I really like the look of 2-1 to Colchester as 4/12 Colchester away matches and 2/11 Rovers matches at home have ended like that. 6/23 is over a quarter and should be odds of less than 4. No bookie could price it up like that and 12 looks very tempting.

 

++ Win Market – Colchester @ 2.8 on Paddy Power (1pt) – 2.75 at 5 firms

++ Correct Score – 1-2 @ 12 on Betfred/William Hill (½pt)

 

Barcelona v Numancia (Spain Primera: Sat 10pm Local Time)

The live game in Spain this weekend features the blaugrana continuing their unstoppable march to the title. There’s been lots of talk about them this week reaching an amazing 50 points at the halfway point in the season and they play the only team to have beaten them. Somehow Numancia won on the opening day but used up all their luck then. Xavi talked about revenge and I think Barcelona could put on another show. They rested most of the team for the Copa del Rey in midweek when they drew 0-0 and Henry looking back to his old Arsenal best for the first time has helped considerably. Another factor is that if they have scored 4,994 goals so if they get 6 they reach 5,000. In some other games they have eased up at 5 but who would not want to be put down as the player who scored the 5,000th goal. If they get to 4 then it must be a real possibility. Numancia have scored 9 goals away from home but 7 of those came in 2 games and I can’t see them scoring against the tightest defence in the league who have let in just 2 goals in the last 7 home games. So what to bet? Well I have to say I think 6-0 is worth a small interest and then it’s all about the handicap. I’m going to play safe and go for Barcelona (-2, -2.5).

++ Asian Handicap – Barcelona (-2, -2.5) @ 1.98 on Bet365 (1pt)

++ Correct Score – 6-0 @ 34 on Boyles/Coral/William Hill (½pt)

 

Real Mallorca v Valencia (Spain: Sun 5pm Local Time)

I think Real Mallorca are rubbish I really do. They lost Guiza, Jonas and Ibagaza and never they were all vital components last season. They have lost 11 of 19 matches this season and haven’t won since 26th October. That’s 11 league games without a win and 8 of those have been losses. Valencia have really impressed me lately, especially since Silva is back from injury. They have had a really hard run of games lately which makes their form look worse than it is. Away from home in their last 4 games they have visited the 3 teams with the best home record, aside from themselves, and the cathedral of football at Bilbao, who are second only to Barcelona in form over the last 10 matches. I think Valencia and Sevilla have emerged as the best of the chasing pack and both were full strength in the Copa del Rey in midweek, when they had a right ding-dong winning 3-2. Signing Cesar as goalkeeping cover for the injured Renan is a big move. I really like this and want to go 2 points on this.

++ Win Market – Valencia @ 2.25 on Bet365/Paddy/Stan James/Coral (2pts) – 2.34 on Pinnacle

5 points staked on the weekend.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

23 Jan, 09 | Comments Closed