Weekend 27th February 2009

Feels good to be back and looking for games. The break was good and allowed me to do some programming to do major checks throughout all leagues for certain stats, patterns etc that I am interested in. I won’t jump straight in with them but hopefully they will form a basis for a profitable future.

The Champions League in midweek put a lot of the other leagues in perspective and it’s amazing how strong the Premier League is. Spain has come out of Europe very badly and it could be Barcelona are their only survivor in all European competition after the return legs, and even they didn’t look that convincing. Elsewhere in Spain Valencia still haven’t been paid, got knocked out of the UEFA cup and are on a poor run and the could implode with all their problems. Barcelona visit Atletico Madrid in an interesting game that they won 4-2 last year. They have their own problems though with Aguerro being labelled as having a bad attitude by the fired former coach and were comprehensively outplayed in midweek.

A corner bet to start.

Arsenal v Fulham (Premiership: Sat 3pm Local Time)

Arsenal host Fulham and I think it could be quite a tight game. At home only Liverpool average more corners than Arsenal as well as being the only team with a higher average supremacy than Arsenal. At the Emirates the average supremacy is 5.5 and if we take out the visits of Liverpool and Man Utd we get an average supremacy of 6.4. The handicap line is 3.5 and of these remaining 11 games Arsenal would have beaten that line in 8 of them and in the 3 they didn't they were damn close as they were 2, 3 and 3 corners to the good. Fulham lost by 6 corners at Anfield and 9 corners at Old Traffford already this season and that's enough for me.

++ Asian Handicap Corners – Arsenal (-3.5) @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)

Leeds v Scunthorpe (English League One: Sat 3pm Local Time)

Many a time this season I thought Leeds have been overestimated pricewise so was a bit shocked to see what looks like value in their price tomorrow. Leeds have won 10/16 at home but interesting 8 of these have been by more than one goal. They come into this game on the back of 4 straight away wins, whereas Scunthorpe have lost 3 games in a row and 4 of the last 6 away games. They have lost away 7 times in 17 matches this season which is decent form but of those 5 have been by more than 1. The bottom line is that the Leeds on a handicap of -1 would have won 13/33 times but then 4 would have been void so it’s actually 13/29 which is odds of 2.23 and as we can get 2.65 and that Leeds are on much better form that Scunthorpe we have some value. An additional interesting stat is that 63% of Leeds home games and 71% of Scunthorpe away games have been 2 or 3 goals and 2-1 Leeds looks a decent bet.

++ Asian Handicap – Leeds (-1) @ 2.65 on Bet365 (1pt)

Palermo v Catania (Italy: Sun 3pm local time)

Not the first time this season we head down to Sicily. Palermo have won 9/12 at home this season with the losses coming against Fiorentina, Inter and Juventus who make up 3 of the top 4 placings. In those 9 wins they have scored at least 2 goals 8 times and this week host the team with the worst away record in the league. Catania have not won away all season and managed to draw 5/12 but have never scored more than 1 goal and managed just 2 goals in the last 8 away games. The Palermo win is 1.83 and I think this is cracking value but I will try and strangle a little bit more value out of the game. If we take the Palermo home and Catania away games together 7/24 have been H/H as HT/FT (3.42) and 9/24 have been D/H as HT/FT (2.67). As we can get the better price on D/H it makes sense to split the stake and have H/H as a cover

++ HT/FT – Home/Home @ 3 on Skybet/Stan James (½pt)

++ HT/FT – Draw/Home @ 4.5 on Skybet/Bet365/VC/Coral/Ladbrokes (1pt)

Maritimo v Setubal (Portugal: Sat 6:30pm local time)

I don’t really look at Portuguese games much but this stood out as William Hill offer some value on the clean sheet. Martimo have kept a clean sheet in 5/10 home games and Setubal have scored in just 2/9 games so taking both those the chance of a clean sheet is 12/19 (63%) which is odds of 1.58. Nacional have let in 11 goals in 10 homes games but 6 were against Benfica so it’s just 4 in the other 10 games and I think this is enough with odds of 1.83 available.

++ Home Team Clean Sheet – Maritimo @ 1.83 on William Hill (1pt)

4½ points staked on the weekend.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

27 Feb, 09 | Comments Closed

Midweek 24h February 2009 Roundup

The champions league was pretty close to my analysis with 4 draws, 2 away wins and 2 home wins and just wish I had taken my own advice and backed every draw. The one selection was Inter Milan to beat Man United and by all accounts they were lucky not to be behind in the first half and I think United could rue the fact they couldn’t turn domination into a goal. It seems the English league remains incredibly strong with no defeats and 2 of the 3 wins by English clubs. I watched Barcelona and they looked nothing like their normal selves and it could be that the Spanish league is especially weak this season and that they are not as good as people think. The performances of Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid would back that up as well as some of the other Spanish teams in Europe this season.

February has been horrible so far with just 1 win in 9 selections and I will be glad o see the back of it.

96 bets (91 points staked) :: 34 win – 55 losses – 6 void – 1 half void/loss :: -9.67

Have put some good checks in place to help to find games for this weekend which should save a lot of time. Looking forward to a positive weekend as a result and a chance to dig out of this deficit.

26 Feb, 09 | Comments Closed

Midweek 24th February 2009

Nothing in the league games in England that appeals so I started to look at the Champions League. The 2002/2003 season saw the knockout phase in the European Cup back after the previous experiment with 2 group phases and I have put together all the results since then which gives 152 knockout matches, ignoring the six finals.

81/152 games have been home wins (53%) with 45 draws (27%) and 30 away wins (20%). What is very interesting is that of the above stats if we look at matches in the last 16 phase we have 50% home wins, 25% away wins and 25% draws but in the first leg of these ties we have 40% home wins (16/40), 32.5% draws (13/40) and 27.5 away wins (11/40) and there is not time in any other round when an away win is more likely. For the draws that comes out to a price of 3.07 and as you can back every game at 3.3 or more except the Inter Milan v United game which is 3.1, it could be argued they are all value.

Of the 40 first leg games in the last sixteen 23 have been under 2.5 goals which is odds of 1.73 and is actually less games that I thought. All in all 50/80 last sixteen matches have been under 2.5 goals which is 62.5% and odds of 1.6 which is roughly what the bookies offer.

Not sure what this tells us but I thought I’d include it and I think it may have more use in later rounds.

Inter Milan v Manchester United (Champions League: Tue 7:45pm UK Time)

Personally, I think Inter Milan look to have a great chance against Manchester United. Vidic missing is an enormous loss to United and I don’t think they will be able to replace them. United have only won 2 away ties in the knockout phase since 2002 and for all their glory in the domestic league this season they have lost away at Arsenal and Liverpool and managed a draw at Chelsea. They have won away at West Ham, West Brom, Bolton, Stoke, ManchesterCity, Blackburn and Portsmouth. West Ham and ManchesterCity are placed 9th and 10th and are the highest placed of that bunch and 4 of them are in the bottom 5. Fair enough you can only beat what’s put in front of you but I think people may have got a bit carried away. Inter Milan are 9 points clear in Serie A and have won 9 and drawn 3 of their home games this season. AC Milan and Juventus are second and third in the league and both have visited Inter Milan and come away a loser. I just think the price is too high to be missed and when Jose Mourinho is involved Man United always have a harder time.

++ Win Market – Inter Milan @ 2.5 generally (1pt)

1 points staked.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

24 Feb, 09 | Comments Closed

Weekend 21st February 2009 (no selections)

Lost Thursday through being ill and although better today it’s not enough time to do everything from scratch so I’ll have to miss this weekend out. No bad thing really considering the recent run, but there are some games in midweek I will look at.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

20 Feb, 09 | Comments Closed

Midweek 17th February 2009

Not much around this midweek. Kidderminster look good value in a game that is live and I’ll have a bet on a 1-0 score.

Manchester United v Fulham (Premier League: Wed 8pmUK Time)

I’ve looked a lot at the HT/FT bets lately and I’m pretty sure there is value in them and this game looks a case in point. This game looks to be low scoring with only 7/11 matches at Old Trafford being over 2.5 goals and only 2 of Fulham’s away games. Fulham have been drawing every single away match at half time and this record has to be broken at some stage but hopefully not in this game. United have led at HT and FT in 6/11 home matches which is odds of 1.83 which is the price skybet offer with no-one else over 1.73. 4/11 games at Old Trafford have been drawn at HT with United going on to win and this is what I hope will happen again. 4/11 is 36% and should be odds of 2.75 but Betfred offer a massive 5 on this. If we take the Fulham away games as well we get 10/23 matches with the HT/FT of D/H which is equivalent to 2.3. Maybe the best action would be something like 1pt on the H/H and 0.83pt on D/H but I’ll stick with the straight bet as its easier.

++ HT/FT Draw/Man Utd @ 5 on Betfred (1pt)

1 points staked.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

17 Feb, 09 | Comments Closed