A weather disrupted weekend and very little of interest in the lower divisions. Not many big games around but I am looking forward to the Seville derby on Saturday night which should be fiery. I saw Sevilla last weekend and some of their cup game in the week and they really have missed Luis Fabiano. I like Betis, and although they are wildly inconsistent I could see them winning.
I do like the look of West Brom against Newcastle, especially with all the bad press about Newcastle. The one worry would be Newcastle have Smith, Viduka and Martins back training so could post a semi-decent forward for the first time in a while but I do think the 3.5 on them to get relegated could look good value pretty soon as Kinnear looks out of his depth and doesn’t stop making headlines with his endless talking.
A corner bet to kick off
Arsenal v Tottenham (English Premier League: Sun 13:30pm Local Time)
Betting on the live game gives many more corner markets which is handy. I looked at North London derby games going back to, and including, the 04/05 season and found only 1/9 was more than 11 corners. In fact 7/9 games were under 10 corners which is odds of 1.29 and I think this can be put down to the style of football you get in these games. It’s tense and with much less free flowing football and when I looked Arsenal against Everton games as a comparison I found 6/10 games were 11 or more which made me think there is a pattern in Spurs games. Even the 4-5 Arsenal win in 2004 produced just 7 corners and the 4-4 draw earlier this season 10. Only 1 of the 4 recent White Hart Lane matches has been more than 10 and that was 12, which in the 9 matches was the highest corner tally! Bet365, Betfred and Blue Sq offer evens on under 11 but Paddy Power is the standout at 2.1
++ Total Corners – Under 11 @ 2.1 on Paddy Power (1pt)
ManchesterCity v Middlesborough (English Premier League: Sat 12:45pm Local Time)
City have been strong at home and 7 of their 8 league wins have been at the City of Manchester stadium. The only teams they have not beaten there are Everton, Man United, Tottenham, Chelsea and Liverpool and in the Spurs game they were down to 10 men before the half hour mark. It’s the margin of victory that I like here as 5 of those 7 home wins have been by 3 goals or more (5/12 = 42% which is odds of 2.4). Boro turn up in a sorry state with no win in 12 games and 5 consecutive away losses. I could see City getting a few if they get ahead and West Brom and Fulham have both beaten Boro by 3 goals recently. If we take the Asian Handicap of City -2 we will get a big pay day if they match beat that but a 2 goal margin will return our money and I think the odds look too good to turn down. Taking all City home and Boro away games we would win 7/24 which is 29% and odds of 3.4 and the money would have been returned twice. Bet365 offer a tasty 4.7
++ Asian Handicap – ManchesterCity (-2) @ 4.7 on Bet365 (1pt)
Valladolid v Atheltic Bilbao (Spain: Sun 5pm Local Time – 4pmUK)
I have been really impressed with Athletic Bilbao recently. After taking 5 points from their first 9 games they then have taken 24 from a possible 36 in the next 12 games. They have won 5 of the last 7 games and finally started to win away as well. They lost to resurgent Almeria last weekend but otherwise have only lost at Real Madrid, Sevilla and Deportivo which is no disgrace. Llorente is having a great season for them and they visit Valladolid who won for the first time in 5 games at Atletico Madrid last weekend. I like Athletic at 3.5 to win but I find it very hard to see them losing and so draw no bet (Asian Handicap (0)) looks best. Stan James offer 2.45 and Pinnacle offer 2.53 on the AH.
++ Draw No Bet – Athletic Bilbao @ 2.5 on Bet365 (1pt)
Cagliari v Atalanta (Italy Serie A: Sun 3pm Local Time – 2pmUK))
Back to the island again as their home record is so strong and stats wise it’s hard to turn this down. Most of the following is copied from the post a week or so back! In Cagliari’s 3 first home games they lost to Lazio and Juve and drew with Milan. Since then they have won 7/8, drawing the other, and led at half time in 6 of them. All in all they have led at HT and FT in 5/10 matches with the 5 winners all in the last 8 games. Atalanta have won just once away all season and lost 7/10 matches, being behind at HT and FT in exactly half. Their one win came in their first away game at Bologna and have lost 5 of the last 6. If we take the bottom line stats Cagliari winning at HT and FT looks to be a 10/21 chance which is 2.1 and so the 3.5 that is available looks good value. Coral have 3.4, Betfair a little better and then after that it’s 3.25. The straight win looks to be a 1.5 chance and evens is available.
++ HT/FT Cagliari/Cagliari @ 3.5 on VC (1pt)
4 points staked on the weekend.
Good luck in whatever bets you do.
