Midweek 24th February 2009

Nothing in the league games in England that appeals so I started to look at the Champions League. The 2002/2003 season saw the knockout phase in the European Cup back after the previous experiment with 2 group phases and I have put together all the results since then which gives 152 knockout matches, ignoring the six finals.

81/152 games have been home wins (53%) with 45 draws (27%) and 30 away wins (20%). What is very interesting is that of the above stats if we look at matches in the last 16 phase we have 50% home wins, 25% away wins and 25% draws but in the first leg of these ties we have 40% home wins (16/40), 32.5% draws (13/40) and 27.5 away wins (11/40) and there is not time in any other round when an away win is more likely. For the draws that comes out to a price of 3.07 and as you can back every game at 3.3 or more except the Inter Milan v United game which is 3.1, it could be argued they are all value.

Of the 40 first leg games in the last sixteen 23 have been under 2.5 goals which is odds of 1.73 and is actually less games that I thought. All in all 50/80 last sixteen matches have been under 2.5 goals which is 62.5% and odds of 1.6 which is roughly what the bookies offer.

Not sure what this tells us but I thought I’d include it and I think it may have more use in later rounds.

Inter Milan v Manchester United (Champions League: Tue 7:45pm UK Time)

Personally, I think Inter Milan look to have a great chance against Manchester United. Vidic missing is an enormous loss to United and I don’t think they will be able to replace them. United have only won 2 away ties in the knockout phase since 2002 and for all their glory in the domestic league this season they have lost away at Arsenal and Liverpool and managed a draw at Chelsea. They have won away at West Ham, West Brom, Bolton, Stoke, ManchesterCity, Blackburn and Portsmouth. West Ham and ManchesterCity are placed 9th and 10th and are the highest placed of that bunch and 4 of them are in the bottom 5. Fair enough you can only beat what’s put in front of you but I think people may have got a bit carried away. Inter Milan are 9 points clear in Serie A and have won 9 and drawn 3 of their home games this season. AC Milan and Juventus are second and third in the league and both have visited Inter Milan and come away a loser. I just think the price is too high to be missed and when Jose Mourinho is involved Man United always have a harder time.

++ Win Market – Inter Milan @ 2.5 generally (1pt)

1 points staked.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

24 Feb, 09 | Comments Closed