Weekend 13th March 2009

The Champions League just doesn’t look fair as English teams continue to dominate. Liverpool demolished Real Madrid and that was a pretty normal Madrid performance. I think it shows up how poor the Spanish league is this season.

I’m late doing all this and haven’t even rounded up the midweek selection when we had a winner. I’m blaming Cheltenham! Write-ups are brief. There will be a bet on the Monday night game as well.

Normally I'd be jumping on the under 10 corners in the big 4 match this morning but I'm wary of how much this game means. Liverpool are notoriously tight on corners but there are 17 big 4 matches in the last 4 seasons that have been over 10 corners and United were in 14 of them. Liverpool have to make a go of it as a draw is no good for them and if either teams scores the other has to attack and it could mean cornersJust one game in the Premier League so no corner bet this weekend.

Chelsea v Man City (Premier League: Sun 1:30pm Local Time)

Dropping big 4 matches Chelsea average 8.3 corners at home and with the opponents average of 3.6 that makes 11.9. Of these 10 matches only 3 were below 11 corners, 2 were bang on 11 and 6 would have been winners. 2 of the low games were against Sunderland and Newcastle who have very low averages. The City average of 5.0 is decent.

++ Asian Total Corners – Over 11 @ 1.975 on Bet365 (1pt)

Valenciennes v Le Havre (France: Sat 7pm local time)

Valenciennes have won 4 of their last 5 home games and haven’t lost in the league since visiting Bordeaux in early December. They have drawn a lot but at home seem to have the winning habit now. Le Havre have lost 19/27 matches this season and 9/13 away from home including the last 5. The stat I like is that Valenciennes have won 6 home games but 4 of those were by exactly 2 goals. Of the 9 games Le Havre have lost 5 were by 2 goals exactly. If we take all Valenciennes home and Le Havre away games the home team winning by 2 comes up 9/26 times which is 34% and odds of 2.88. 4.5 on offer looks decent value.

++ Winning Margin – Valenciennes to win by 2 goals @ 4.5 on Paddy Power/Blue Sq (1pt)

Monaco v Toulouse (France: Sat 7pm local time)

I like the HT/FT bet and I think with some work there really can be value in it. On basic form you could see Toulouse winning this game but an HT/FT result of Draw/Away has happened 4/13 times for them away and for Monaco 4/14 at home. 8/27 is 29% and odds of 3.375 so I’m keen on taking 6.5 on this. Higher available on Betfair

++ HT/FT – Draw/Away @ 6.5 on Skybet/Blue Sq (1pt)

Aris v Xanthi (Greece: Sat 6pm local time)

8/13 Xanthi games 0-0 at half time and 6/12 of Aris away matches. That’s 14/25 so 56% and odds of 1.78. Bet365 offer 2.3 and similar on Betfair.

++ Half Time Score – 0-0 @ 2.3 on Bet365 (1pt)

Larissa v PAOK (Greece: Sat 3:45pm local time)

I like the number of goals bet and the one I mentioned in the week won. There are about 6 of them I will be betting this weekend but this one stands out the most. 10/13 Larissa home and 8/12 PAOK away have finished with 2 or 3 goals. That’s 72% and odds of 1.38 so evens looks generous.

++ Number of Goals – 2 or 3 @ 2 on Paddy Power/Expekt (1pt)

5 points staked on the weekend.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

14 Mar, 09 | Comments Closed