Another losing weekend. This really has been a tough year for me and I’ve lost a fair whack of money following my tips! Deportivo could only draw with Getafe and Malaga lost to Sporting Gijon. A losing bet for that but a pleasing result and I wonder if I should keep tipping Gijon’s opponents as a sure fire way to keep them up!.

The number of games available is decreasing so I’ll look at the premiership and spain for this weekend as it looks again like a number of prices have been based on the must win principle. Once through these last few games it will be time for a real review and an outline of where I can go next year as this has taken the shine off the previous season.

141 Bets (136 points staked) :: 45 won – 585 lost – 9 void – 2 half void :: -25.39 points

“If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Chico Marx

A loser today but another top v bottom game in Spain tomorrow where I think there is value.

Sporting Gijon v Malaga (Spain Primera: Sat 5pm local time)

I should have been going to this match but have somewhere else to be. I would hope Gijon can win but my head says they don’t really deserve to be favourite and the 3 available for Malaga looks good value. 20 points separate these teams and while Malaga are in the group of 5 teams separated by 5 points from 4th to 8th Gijon are 3rd from bottom and have had a terrible run of form losing 7 of their last 8 games. Taking the bottom line Sporting have lost 10 of 17 home matches and Malaga have the 4th best away record in the league with 7 wins from 17 matches. Those figures would suggest evens is around the right price and because it’s a must win game for Gijon the bookies seem to have sided with them. I’d be happy to lose my money if gijon win but really its too big a price on Malaga as they come into this on the back of 4 away wins in the last 6 as well as all the other factors.

++ Win Market – Malaga @ 3 on Ladbrokes (1pt)

1 point staked to add to the 1 staked on the weekend so far

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

Didn’t have time to look at the games yesterday and will look at corner bets in the 3 premier league games that are played on Sunday and Monday later as well as another possible bet in Spain. I know it’s late but there is a bet for tonight.

Deportivo La Coruna v Getafe (Spain Primera: Sat 8pm local time)

I would love Getafe to lose this game as Sporting are in trouble down the bottom and they are one of their main rivals. Travelling to the Riazor is no easy task and only Atletico Madrid, Sevilla and Sporting Gijon (amazingly) have managed to win there. Depor have won 10/17 home matches this season and with Atletico Madrid and Valencia meeting this weekend a win for them would put them level on points with Valencia in 4th place and in with a decent shout of a champions league berth.  Getafe are at the other end of the table and although they couldn’t end up in the bottom 3 this weekend they could be sucked closer. They have won just 3 times away from home this season and lost 8/17 matches and 5 of the last 6. Evens looks a good price to take and by looking at the Asian Handicap price it’s possible to beat the win market.
++ Asian Handicap – Deportivo (-0.5) @ 2.08 on Bet365 (1pt)

1 point staked on the weekend so far

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

As we were after a break even weekend. The corner bet was spot on 12 so the bet was voided, Mallorca were ahead against Sevilla before losing 3-1 and then Almeria did what Sevilla did against Gijon coming back from a goal down to win 3-1.

Not much change in Spain at the bottom as Getafe were the only winners and managed to move up 3 places. It really is tough to call and fingers crossed Gijon can do something but they will need to win 2 of the last 3 games as their goal difference is so poor. Valencia were very impressive bating Real Madrid on Saturday but will miss Marchena and Silva next weekend when they visit Atletico Madrid and that promises to be a great match.

Will be back then.

“If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Chico Marx

I was sad to see Barcelona go through in midweek and had to endure rubbish about a victory for football over anti-football. For some reason the fact that Chelsea were able to defend against Barcelona meant they were a very negative team. All it showed up was how weak the Spanish league was again, especially after Barca mauled Real Madrid 6-2 last weekend. If Henry is out for the rest of the season that would be a huge blow for them as he has managed to perform in the big games this season.

Fulham v Aston Villa (Premier League : Sat 3pm local time)

Aston Villa are the corner kings! Their home games average a league high 13.9 corners and away it’s 13, tied first with Hull. If we remove big 4 matches we find Craven Cottage second to Villa Park in corners so even with such a high line we look to have odds in our favour. Of the non-big 4 matches at Fulham 8/13 were over 12 and one was 12 exactly and for Villa away it’s similar with 8/13 games over 12 corners. The line is high at 12 but still we would have won 16/26 times, which is odds of 1.625 so I’m happy to take 1.9.

++ Asian Total Corners – Over 12 @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)

Sevilla v Real Mallorca (Spain Primera: Sat 8pm local time)

I backed Sevilla on the reverse fixture earlier in the season and they drew 0-0 and lost me money. Mallorca look to be safe now but their form is fantastic and I think they have the luxury of going into this game relaxed. 4 wins in the last 5 games and just 1 defeat in the past 13 means only Barcelona and Real Madrid have taken more points in that period. Sevilla got back to winning ways last Saturday at Villarreal but that was mainly down to a fantastic strike from Kanoute after they were down to 10 men. In their last 7 home games Barcelona, Betis, Santander and Getafe have all left with 3 points and the speculation around Jimenez as manager continues. All in all the win bet looks best simply as the price is so big. In terms of the Asian handicap Sevilla have won at home by more than 1 goal just 3 times in 17 games so Mallorca +1 @ 1.98 looks very solid.
++ Win Market – Real Mallorca @ 7 on Stan James (1pt) – more on Betfair

Almeria v Sporting Gijón (Spain Primera: Sun 5pm local time)

I feel bad backing this one and going against my local team but have too. Almeria are solid at home with equal 3rd most wins and Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Santander, La Coruna, Real Madrid, Sevilla and Valencia have avoided defeat there and 6 of those 7 are in the top 7 in the league. Negredo has been on great form and is surely destined for a big summer move. Gijon badly need a win and did play well last weekend but that was the first time in a while and have lost 11 of the last 13 games. Evens looks a great price

++ Win Market – Almeria @ 2 on Bet365 (1pt) – more on Betfair
La Coruna to win at Recre is very tempting as is Espanyol to win at Atletico and I believe there is good value in their 5 price. I may come back for that.
3 points staked on the weekend so far.

Good luck in whatever bets you do

A win today for Real Mallorca meant a small profit on the weekend. The corner bet was a loser with Chelsea having just one corner more than Fulham and then Millwall lost 2-0. Glad I swerved the Malaga bet as they went down 2-0 but Mallorca continue on their run and won 2-1 against Getafe.

Sporting Gijon were robbed of a much needed win by a 90th minute Bilabo equaliser and a win for Recre and another for Espanyol means there’s a bit of movement at the bottom and a the bottom 4 are separated by just 1 point, with Osasuna 2 points ahead and Betis possibly another if they lose to Atletico tonight.

The small profit on the Bareclona and Chelsea game is included as we had a half point on the draw. Interesting second leg in prospect and the smaller pitch will make for a totally different match and no Puyol or Marquez is a big boost for Chelsea.

136 Bets (131 points staked) :: 44 won – 82 lost – 8 void – 2 half void :: -23.39 points

* This does not include the 3 antepost bets.

“If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Chico Marx

A small profit midweek on the champs league game. As the season draws to a close there are many big games and vitally important games around and I can’t wait for Real Madrid be Barcelona on Saturday evening. No idea which way it will go and nor do the bookies.

Chelsea v Fulham (Premier League: Sat 3pm local time)
I do feel in big 4 matches that the big 4 team is the bully and probably dictates the game. Fulham need a win to stay in the UEFA cup spots, or whatever it becomes, but also finishing 2nd in the prem is much better than 2rd (no champs league qualification?) and am sure Chelsea are after that. I know they have a huge game on Wednesday but they have decent depth. The facts are Chelsea have won the handicap against non-big 4 teams by more than 3 10/14 times and boro’s other 3 visits to big 4 teams have resulted in corner deficits of 6, 9 and 5.

++ Asian Handicap Corners – Chelsea -3 @ 1.85 on Bet365 (1pt)

Carlisle v Millwall (English League One: Sat 3pm local time)

A win for Millwall could give them 3rd place and the possibility of avoiding Leeds in the first round of the playoffs and I think that is motivation. For Carlisle it’s more as they need at least a win to get them out of the drop zone and stay up and even that can’t guarantee survival. Carlisle have drawn a lot recently but haven’t won for 12 games and won just twice in the last 20 matches. Millwall on the on the hand have won 9 of the last 13 and away from home this season have won 12/22 matches. I think Carlisel may have a job remembering how to win and if they push too much Millwall should be able to punish them and the price is too big.

++ Win Market – Millwall @ 3.75 on Paddy Power/Tote/Ladbrokes (1pt)

I was very tempted by Malaga at Numacia but the odds were a little short of what I wanted. It’s not possible to write up Sundays bet but it is:

Real Mallorca v Getafe (Spain Primera: Sun 5pm local time)
++ Win Market – Mallorca @ 2.2 on Bet365 (2pts)

4 points staked on the weekend so far

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

I don’t really like to get involved in the Champions league but the prices this week look madness.

Barcelona v Chelsea (Champions League: Tuesday 8:45pm local time)
Barcelona are a best priced 1.73 in this game and Expekt offer the draw at 3.65 and Chelsea at 5.8. There is no doubt Barcelona are a very good team and have ripped some teams to shreds this year but they are not as good as most people give them credit for. On Saturday they needed a goalkeeping error to help them out and get a draw against Valencia and I believe in the Spanish league this has been one of their few tests this season. The Spanish league is weak and I think you can see this by the performance of the Spanish teams in Europe this season. Real Madrid beat 3rd placed Sevilla 4-2 on Sunday and that was essentially the same Real Madrid team beaten home and away by Liverpool 5-0 on aggregate. Huntelaar was the only real absentee and Liverpool absolutely crushed them. Real lie just 4 points behind Barcelona in the league with both of them meeting on Saturday. Barcelona are going to have their entire season, and possibly legacy, defined in the next 2 weeks. It’s very hard to draw a line between any European form but Liverpools drubbing of Real Madrid really was emphatic, and Arsenal beating Villarreal easily at home shows the strength of the English league.

Guardiola also has some selection difficulties as Xavi, Iniesta, Messi, Henry and Eto’o are almost impossible to leave out but if you play them you are left with just YaYa Toure as a defensive midfielder. Hiddink will no doubt be aware of any weaknesses and you have to fancy him over Pep, who last season was patrolling the dugout of Barcelona reserves and playing teams like Rapitenca who are from the place I lived previously with a population of just 10,000. Physically Chelsea are stonger and there is very little height in the Barcelona team and that is something that could be exploited.

I looked through some of the recent matchups between Barcelona and English teams in the Champions League.

2005 v Chelsea – Barcelona win 2-1 at Camp Nou (Chelsea win on aggregate)

2006 v Chelsea – Draw 1-1 at Camp Nou (Barca win on aggregate) *

2006 v Arsenal – Barcelona win final 2-1 *

2006 v Chelsea (group stage) – 2-2 at Camp Nou (Chelsea win at home)

2007 v Liverpool – Liverpool win 2-1 at Camp Nou (Liverpool win on aggregate)

2008 v Manchester United – 0-0 draw at Camp Nou (United win on aggregate)

* In both these crucial matches a player from the English team was sent off (Del Horno and Lehmann)

I think the sending offs are key and need to be factored in. Essentially there have been 6 clashes over the past 3 seasons with the English teams coming out on top 4 times. Of the 5 games in the Camp Nou Barca have won once, lost once and drawn 3 times. I could quite easily see a draw again. I cannot quite see how the prices have been done for this game. Real Madrid host Barcelona on Saturday and Madrid are favourites yet this Madrid team was thrashed by Liverpool, who themselves were the knocked out by Chelsea. Betfair offer 5.8 and 3.9 and I mentioned the Expekt prices before but I’ll use other bookies for my recommended bets.

++ Match Odds – Chelsea @ 5.5 on Bet365/Skybet (1pt) – more on Betfair

++ Match Odds – Draw @ 3.6 on Bet365/Boyles/Stan James (½pt) – more on Betfair

1½pts staked.

Had time to add the write-ups now. Watched Valencia v Barcelona last night and it could be a good pointer to the Chelsea clash. Henry and Toure were the only 2 possible starters no on the pitch so it was a full strength team and Valencia deserved the draw and are possibly the best team Barcelona have played this season, taking into account the form Valencia are in. Chelsea at 5.7 on Betfair looks a massive price.

Recreativo de Huelva v Real Mallorca (Spain Primera: Sun 5pm local time)

Mallorca play the Sevilla, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Villarreal in their last 4 games and although they are close to being safe I think a win here would confirm it. They would not want to go into those last 4 games needing to get a win. In the last 10 matches only Barcelona and Real Madrid have taken more than the 21 Mallorca managed. If we contrast this to Recre we can see they have taken just 6 from a possible 30. They also have the second worst home record in the league and come into this game on the back of 7 losses in the last 8 games. They do have home advantage but the transformation in Mallorca since they started the second half of the season has been amazing and the only 2 losses in 13 games have come at Bilbao and Osasuna, both of which are hard places to go. They may well win but I’ll play safe with DNB.

++ Draw no bet – Real Mallorca @ 2.25 on Stan James (1pt)

Sevilla v Real Madrid (Spain Primera: Sun 5pm local time)

Sevilla have lost in consecutive games to Getafe, Valencia and Barcelona and now face Real Madrid. Before that they were on a good run but I don’t there’s a whopping 18 points between them and Real Madrid in the table. All this season you just hear about Barcelona and how great they are but a win for Madrid would put them 5 points behind and ready to host Barcelona at home next weekend. Schuster didn’t last long as Madrid manager this season and it was his 14th game and 4-3 home loss against Sevilla that ended it. They took 26 points from those 14 games and then lost to Barcelona in the first game that Ramos took charge. Since then they have won 16/17 league matches and drawn the other. That’s an amazing 49 from a possible 51 points. In the same period Barcelona have taken 43 from a possible 51 so you can see what an achievements Madrid’s run has been. They have been calling Madrid lucky etc but that can’t be down to luck. Sevilla have had more rumours about next season as to whether Jimenez will stay or go and who will replace him. With Ramos back in Sevilla for the first time since he left it promises to be a fiery affair.

++ Asian Handicap – Real Madrid (0) @ 2.02 on Bet365 (1pt) – 2.04 on Ladbrokes/2.03 on VC

2 points staked, alongside the other 2 staked on the weekend so far

Good luck in whatever bets you do.