I was sad to see Barcelona go through in midweek and had to endure rubbish about a victory for football over anti-football. For some reason the fact that Chelsea were able to defend against Barcelona meant they were a very negative team. All it showed up was how weak the Spanish league was again, especially after Barca mauled Real Madrid 6-2 last weekend. If Henry is out for the rest of the season that would be a huge blow for them as he has managed to perform in the big games this season.
Fulham v Aston Villa (Premier League : Sat 3pm local time)
Aston Villa are the corner kings! Their home games average a league high 13.9 corners and away it’s 13, tied first with Hull. If we remove big 4 matches we find Craven Cottage second to Villa Park in corners so even with such a high line we look to have odds in our favour. Of the non-big 4 matches at Fulham 8/13 were over 12 and one was 12 exactly and for Villa away it’s similar with 8/13 games over 12 corners. The line is high at 12 but still we would have won 16/26 times, which is odds of 1.625 so I’m happy to take 1.9.
++ Asian Total Corners – Over 12 @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)
Sevilla v Real Mallorca (Spain Primera: Sat 8pm local time)
I backed Sevilla on the reverse fixture earlier in the season and they drew 0-0 and lost me money. Mallorca look to be safe now but their form is fantastic and I think they have the luxury of going into this game relaxed. 4 wins in the last 5 games and just 1 defeat in the past 13 means only Barcelona and Real Madrid have taken more points in that period. Sevilla got back to winning ways last Saturday at Villarreal but that was mainly down to a fantastic strike from Kanoute after they were down to 10 men. In their last 7 home games Barcelona, Betis, Santander and Getafe have all left with 3 points and the speculation around Jimenez as manager continues. All in all the win bet looks best simply as the price is so big. In terms of the Asian handicap Sevilla have won at home by more than 1 goal just 3 times in 17 games so Mallorca +1 @ 1.98 looks very solid.
++ Win Market – Real Mallorca @ 7 on Stan James (1pt) – more on Betfair
Almeria v Sporting Gijón (Spain Primera: Sun 5pm local time)
I feel bad backing this one and going against my local team but have too. Almeria are solid at home with equal 3rd most wins and Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Santander, La Coruna, Real Madrid, Sevilla and Valencia have avoided defeat there and 6 of those 7 are in the top 7 in the league. Negredo has been on great form and is surely destined for a big summer move. Gijon badly need a win and did play well last weekend but that was the first time in a while and have lost 11 of the last 13 games. Evens looks a great price
++ Win Market – Almeria @ 2 on Bet365 (1pt) – more on Betfair
La Coruna to win at Recre is very tempting as is Espanyol to win at Atletico and I believe there is good value in their 5 price. I may come back for that.
3 points staked on the weekend so far.
Good luck in whatever bets you do