Weekend 9th May 2009

I was sad to see Barcelona go through in midweek and had to endure rubbish about a victory for football over anti-football. For some reason the fact that Chelsea were able to defend against Barcelona meant they were a very negative team. All it showed up was how weak the Spanish league was again, especially after Barca mauled Real Madrid 6-2 last weekend. If Henry is out for the rest of the season that would be a huge blow for them as he has managed to perform in the big games this season.

Fulham v Aston Villa (Premier League : Sat 3pm local time)

Aston Villa are the corner kings! Their home games average a league high 13.9 corners and away it’s 13, tied first with Hull. If we remove big 4 matches we find Craven Cottage second to Villa Park in corners so even with such a high line we look to have odds in our favour. Of the non-big 4 matches at Fulham 8/13 were over 12 and one was 12 exactly and for Villa away it’s similar with 8/13 games over 12 corners. The line is high at 12 but still we would have won 16/26 times, which is odds of 1.625 so I’m happy to take 1.9.

++ Asian Total Corners – Over 12 @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)

Sevilla v Real Mallorca (Spain Primera: Sat 8pm local time)

I backed Sevilla on the reverse fixture earlier in the season and they drew 0-0 and lost me money. Mallorca look to be safe now but their form is fantastic and I think they have the luxury of going into this game relaxed. 4 wins in the last 5 games and just 1 defeat in the past 13 means only Barcelona and Real Madrid have taken more points in that period. Sevilla got back to winning ways last Saturday at Villarreal but that was mainly down to a fantastic strike from Kanoute after they were down to 10 men. In their last 7 home games Barcelona, Betis, Santander and Getafe have all left with 3 points and the speculation around Jimenez as manager continues. All in all the win bet looks best simply as the price is so big. In terms of the Asian handicap Sevilla have won at home by more than 1 goal just 3 times in 17 games so Mallorca +1 @ 1.98 looks very solid.
++ Win Market – Real Mallorca @ 7 on Stan James (1pt) – more on Betfair

Almeria v Sporting Gijón (Spain Primera: Sun 5pm local time)

I feel bad backing this one and going against my local team but have too. Almeria are solid at home with equal 3rd most wins and Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Santander, La Coruna, Real Madrid, Sevilla and Valencia have avoided defeat there and 6 of those 7 are in the top 7 in the league. Negredo has been on great form and is surely destined for a big summer move. Gijon badly need a win and did play well last weekend but that was the first time in a while and have lost 11 of the last 13 games. Evens looks a great price

++ Win Market – Almeria @ 2 on Bet365 (1pt) – more on Betfair
La Coruna to win at Recre is very tempting as is Espanyol to win at Atletico and I believe there is good value in their 5 price. I may come back for that.
3 points staked on the weekend so far.

Good luck in whatever bets you do

Weekend 2nd May 2009

A small profit midweek on the champs league game. As the season draws to a close there are many big games and vitally important games around and I can’t wait for Real Madrid be Barcelona on Saturday evening. No idea which way it will go and nor do the bookies.

Chelsea v Fulham (Premier League: Sat 3pm local time)
I do feel in big 4 matches that the big 4 team is the bully and probably dictates the game. Fulham need a win to stay in the UEFA cup spots, or whatever it becomes, but also finishing 2nd in the prem is much better than 2rd (no champs league qualification?) and am sure Chelsea are after that. I know they have a huge game on Wednesday but they have decent depth. The facts are Chelsea have won the handicap against non-big 4 teams by more than 3 10/14 times and boro’s other 3 visits to big 4 teams have resulted in corner deficits of 6, 9 and 5.

++ Asian Handicap Corners – Chelsea -3 @ 1.85 on Bet365 (1pt)

Carlisle v Millwall (English League One: Sat 3pm local time)

A win for Millwall could give them 3rd place and the possibility of avoiding Leeds in the first round of the playoffs and I think that is motivation. For Carlisle it’s more as they need at least a win to get them out of the drop zone and stay up and even that can’t guarantee survival. Carlisle have drawn a lot recently but haven’t won for 12 games and won just twice in the last 20 matches. Millwall on the on the hand have won 9 of the last 13 and away from home this season have won 12/22 matches. I think Carlisel may have a job remembering how to win and if they push too much Millwall should be able to punish them and the price is too big.

++ Win Market – Millwall @ 3.75 on Paddy Power/Tote/Ladbrokes (1pt)

I was very tempted by Malaga at Numacia but the odds were a little short of what I wanted. It’s not possible to write up Sundays bet but it is:

Real Mallorca v Getafe (Spain Primera: Sun 5pm local time)
++ Win Market – Mallorca @ 2.2 on Bet365 (2pts)

4 points staked on the weekend so far

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

1 May, 09 | Posted in: Tips | Tags: | Comments Closed

Weekend 25th April 2009

Very behind this weekend so just a corner bet. There will be more to follow tomorrow lunchtime looking at Spain and any other corner bets

Everton v Man City (Premier League: Sat local time)

If you like corners then stay away from Goodison, unless they are hosting the big 4! Only nonbig-4 matches at Sunderland and Stoke average less than Everton home games. Everton have a +2 handicap and if we look at their home games this season they would have beaten this line 4 times, drawn once lost 7 times. If we take City away games and the same line they would have won 9 times drawn twice and lost just twice. I make that 16 wins from 26 games (excluding the 3 voided games) which is odds 1.625 so am happy with 1.9 and will go 2 points.

++ Asian Handicap Corners – Man City + 2 @ 1.95 on Bet365 (2pt)

2 points stake d on the weekend so far

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

Weekend 11th April 2009

I never did round up last weeks results but it was all square! It’s been an interesting week of research and I don’t want to put up the 2 or 3 goal bets etc until I have done some more research. Backing them straight on probable goals doesn’t work and this is because a team may average 2 or 3 goals because it wins nearly all its games and mainly by more than 1-0. If this team plays a team with a similar profile then the 2 or 3 goal probability looks good on paper but its rubbish compared to if one f those teams was playing a team which normally lost and played games with 2 or 3 goals.

Anyway a corner bet to begin.

Portsmouth v West Brom (Premier League: Sat local time)

I could see this being a high corner count. I have removed big 4 matches and without these Pompey home games and West Brom away games both average 12.7 corners. West Brom have a very high away average and taking all games only Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Villa and Blackburn average more corners away. 8/11 away games (not v big 4) have been over 11 corners and for Pompey at home its 7/12 over 11 and in the last 9 games at Fratton Park just 2 have been under 12 (11 and 10 corners in those games).

++ Asian Total Corners – Over 11.5 @ 1.85 on Bet365 (1pt)

Oxford v Wrexham (English Conference: Sat local time)

The home form of Oxford is very good as is their general form. They have won 8 of the last 9 home games and have lost just once in the last 18 matches. Wrexham have just 2 wins in the last 13 games and away from home have lost 4 of the last 6.

++ Win Market – Oxford @ 1.91 on Betfred/Skybet (1pt)

Nancy v Valenciennes ( France Ligue 1: Sat local time)

This game just screams out draw and not just a standard draw but a HT/FT draw. 40% of Nancy home games and 47& of Valenciennes away games have been Draw/Draw. It’s rare to ever see anything like this and I’m keen to bet it.

++ HT/Ft – Draw/Draw @ 4.5 on general (1pt

3 points stake d on the weeken d.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.