Posting again

After a long break I am keen to post again. Will sum up where I am after these

Mallorca v Zaragoza
Mallorca lie in 6th but at home are 6 from 6 and have score 16 goals and let in just 2. Zaragoza have lost 4 of their 6 away games and drawn the other 2. Odds aren’t that great but I still think they are better than their actual chance of winning. Best price on their win is 1.85 but choose the asian handicap (-0.5) on Bet365 which is the same as a win and you get 1.92
++ Asian Handicap – Real Mallorca @ 1.92 on Bet365 (1pt)

Tenerife v Sporting Gijon
Gijon are my local team and I’ve seen every home game this far. After they beat Mallorca 4-1 at home it was clear they are a serious team this season and have managed to gel together. The goalie and 3 of the 4 defenders are new this season and they have been the difference along with Rivera the holding midfielder. They lie in 7th place and in their next 7 games will play 5 of the bottom 6 teams in the league so could really pick up some points. Away from home their record is won 1, drawn 3 and lost 2 but they have visited barcelona, la coruna and valencia. Last away game they drew 0-0 in Xerez but the team suffered severe flu and had only 5 regular starters including the absence of the spanish under 21 left back (Canella) and Castro who plays left wing and for me is the star of the team now. The websites of the teams give pretty accurate info and I know they are both at full strength. 5/2 looks massive for Sporting and I am prepared to wager on that rather than go for the handicap bet
++ Win Market – Sporting Gijon @ 3.5 on Coral (1pt)

Season Round Up and News

The lack of posts recently has been down to me having too much other work on as well as a bit of a loss of enthusiasm based on the seasons results. I need to do some proper analysis to see where it went wrong and if any of the types of bets stood up. I imagine the corner bets always made a profit but there was a dodgy phase in the middle of the season when I changed my selection method and it patently didn’t work. The antepost bets were losers but again will go into that as well in a week or so.

Over the next few days the site will be down for a bit as I am going to change the hosting company. The blog as well will go and should come back in a new format on the new host site. When it comes up I’ll work out how to continue this for the coming season.

Thanks to anyone who reads this and people who especially those who have given feedback to me this year. I have lost a lot but think I also have learnt a hell of a lot.

The current standings are:

141 Bets (136 points staked) :: 45 won – 85 lost – 9 void – 2 half void :: -25.39 points

“If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Chico Marx.

Roundup: Weekend 16th May 2009

Another losing weekend. This really has been a tough year for me and I’ve lost a fair whack of money following my tips! Deportivo could only draw with Getafe and Malaga lost to Sporting Gijon. A losing bet for that but a pleasing result and I wonder if I should keep tipping Gijon’s opponents as a sure fire way to keep them up!.

The number of games available is decreasing so I’ll look at the premiership and spain for this weekend as it looks again like a number of prices have been based on the must win principle. Once through these last few games it will be time for a real review and an outline of where I can go next year as this has taken the shine off the previous season.

141 Bets (136 points staked) :: 45 won – 585 lost – 9 void – 2 half void :: -25.39 points

“If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Chico Marx

Weekend 9th May 2009

I was sad to see Barcelona go through in midweek and had to endure rubbish about a victory for football over anti-football. For some reason the fact that Chelsea were able to defend against Barcelona meant they were a very negative team. All it showed up was how weak the Spanish league was again, especially after Barca mauled Real Madrid 6-2 last weekend. If Henry is out for the rest of the season that would be a huge blow for them as he has managed to perform in the big games this season.

Fulham v Aston Villa (Premier League : Sat 3pm local time)

Aston Villa are the corner kings! Their home games average a league high 13.9 corners and away it’s 13, tied first with Hull. If we remove big 4 matches we find Craven Cottage second to Villa Park in corners so even with such a high line we look to have odds in our favour. Of the non-big 4 matches at Fulham 8/13 were over 12 and one was 12 exactly and for Villa away it’s similar with 8/13 games over 12 corners. The line is high at 12 but still we would have won 16/26 times, which is odds of 1.625 so I’m happy to take 1.9.

++ Asian Total Corners – Over 12 @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)

Sevilla v Real Mallorca (Spain Primera: Sat 8pm local time)

I backed Sevilla on the reverse fixture earlier in the season and they drew 0-0 and lost me money. Mallorca look to be safe now but their form is fantastic and I think they have the luxury of going into this game relaxed. 4 wins in the last 5 games and just 1 defeat in the past 13 means only Barcelona and Real Madrid have taken more points in that period. Sevilla got back to winning ways last Saturday at Villarreal but that was mainly down to a fantastic strike from Kanoute after they were down to 10 men. In their last 7 home games Barcelona, Betis, Santander and Getafe have all left with 3 points and the speculation around Jimenez as manager continues. All in all the win bet looks best simply as the price is so big. In terms of the Asian handicap Sevilla have won at home by more than 1 goal just 3 times in 17 games so Mallorca +1 @ 1.98 looks very solid.
++ Win Market – Real Mallorca @ 7 on Stan James (1pt) – more on Betfair

Almeria v Sporting Gijón (Spain Primera: Sun 5pm local time)

I feel bad backing this one and going against my local team but have too. Almeria are solid at home with equal 3rd most wins and Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Santander, La Coruna, Real Madrid, Sevilla and Valencia have avoided defeat there and 6 of those 7 are in the top 7 in the league. Negredo has been on great form and is surely destined for a big summer move. Gijon badly need a win and did play well last weekend but that was the first time in a while and have lost 11 of the last 13 games. Evens looks a great price

++ Win Market – Almeria @ 2 on Bet365 (1pt) – more on Betfair
La Coruna to win at Recre is very tempting as is Espanyol to win at Atletico and I believe there is good value in their 5 price. I may come back for that.
3 points staked on the weekend so far.

Good luck in whatever bets you do

Roundup: Weekend 2nd May 2009

A win today for Real Mallorca meant a small profit on the weekend. The corner bet was a loser with Chelsea having just one corner more than Fulham and then Millwall lost 2-0. Glad I swerved the Malaga bet as they went down 2-0 but Mallorca continue on their run and won 2-1 against Getafe.

Sporting Gijon were robbed of a much needed win by a 90th minute Bilabo equaliser and a win for Recre and another for Espanyol means there’s a bit of movement at the bottom and a the bottom 4 are separated by just 1 point, with Osasuna 2 points ahead and Betis possibly another if they lose to Atletico tonight.

The small profit on the Bareclona and Chelsea game is included as we had a half point on the draw. Interesting second leg in prospect and the smaller pitch will make for a totally different match and no Puyol or Marquez is a big boost for Chelsea.

136 Bets (131 points staked) :: 44 won – 82 lost – 8 void – 2 half void :: -23.39 points

* This does not include the 3 antepost bets.

“If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Chico Marx