This week and next weekend will be difficult ones to post on. Apologies for that and hopefully back to normal on 9th December.
Always nice to get to Friday and it’s a big weekend for football. Bet365 tweeted the big games and it is impressive
Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray
Dortmund vs Bayern
Man Utd vs Arsenal
Leeds vs Newcastle
Atlético vs Real
AC vs Inter
This weekend. 😍 pic.twitter.com/5LuC8mjrEo
— bet365 (@bet365) November 17, 2016
On the subject of twitter we send out stats on Twitter highlighting games that pass a certain threshold. We get some nice tweets in return but also sometimes just unhelpful stuff like
@simplesocstats Such a horrible way of pricing that market. Why?
— Agent of Truth (@AgentOfTruth) October 29, 2016
All the tweets we send are just advice and for users to check them out further. Sadly we don’t have prices for all the tweets we have sent but there have been 390 tweets for over/under 2.5 bets and we have prices for all of these. We took the average price from football-data.co.uk for these as that seemed a better guide of whether they can be profitable or not. Over the 390 bets the loss has been 3.32 points which really is less than a loss of 1% of the total stakes. Using best prices or just Betfair you’d assume a decent profit could be made.
So really when people day it’s a horrible way to price a market it’s not necessarily the case and worth looking into the results first.
There have been 13/21 winning bets this season for a profit of 0.93pts. If we were to use maximum price then the profit would increase to 1.95pts with each winning bet on average having an 0.08 improvement in profit. There have been 238 winning bets so if they all had an 0.05pt improvement, so less than the average we saw above, then it’s an 11.9pt increase in profit so it seems as if backing these blindly at good prices will produce a profit.
Will get a full list of these bets for next week.
The international break is always a barren time for football but Brazil did beat Argentina last night in a decent game.
The European qualification is so diluted that you rarely get a decent match between big teams.
There are no international stats on the site and was looking round for international ratings and found an article on the Pinnacle website that goes through international ratings before Euro 2016 started and is quite interesting. Another article on the Rostrum goes into FIFA rankings and compares them to ELO to see which could be better.
The lower leagues all have matches and we have stats for those as per usual and will be back with a bigger weekender next time.
No new stats this weekend as time got the better of us all here. A quick summary on the corner bets from last weekend.
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 2||Newport County||Plymouth||13.75||12|
|22nd Oct||Eng Champ||Rotherham||Reading||13.04||13|
|23rd Oct||Ita Serie A||Roma||Palermo||13||8|
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 2||Wycombe||Barnet||12.985||9|
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 2||Blackpool||Doncaster||12.875||8|
|22nd Oct||Eng Prem||Bournemouth||Tottenham||12.815||11|
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 2||Luton||Mansfield||12.71||18|
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 1||Bradford||Sheffield Utd||12.39||14|
|23rd Oct||Ita Serie A||Atalanta||Inter Milan||12.375||4|
|23rd Oct||Spa Primera||Real Madrid||Athletic Bilbao||12.375||10|
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 1||Shrewsbury||Northampton||12.14||13|
Half of the 10 went 12 or more and half were 11 or under. Would have been interesting to know what the lines were for each of these matches. The 3 games not in England all went under and it could be worth looking into the historical English results to see how these sort of teams performed.
Stats back next weekend.
The Simple Weekend (Big corners this weekend?)
Bit of a corner theme of late and sticking on that this weekend. Decided to check out which teams that play each other have the highest corner averages. The table below looks at the average home team corners when playing at home plus average away corners playing away. So for Bradford v Sheffield Utd it’s the 8.1 corner average that Bradford have at home + the 6.6 corner average that Sheffield Utd have when playing away.
|22nd||Eng Lge 1||Bradford||Sheffield Utd||8.1||6.6||14.71|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Newport County||Plymouth||8.8||5.7||14.42|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Blackpool||Doncaster||7||6.8||13.83|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Wycombe||Barnet||5.2||8.6||13.77|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Atalanta||Inter Milan||5.5||8||13.5|
|23rd||Fra Lig 1||Paris Saint Germain||Marseille||8.8||4.8||13.5|
|23rd||Spa Primera||Real Madrid||Athletic Bilbao||9.3||4||13.25|
|22nd||Swe Allsven||Malmo FF||Ostersunds||7.1||6.1||13.16|
|23rd||NL Eridvis||Groningen||AZ Alkmaar||7.4||5.8||13.15|
|23rd||Rus Prem||Lokomotiv Moscow||CSKA Moscow||7.8||5.3||13.04|
|23rd||Spa Primera||Sevilla||Atletico Madrid||8.3||4.8||13|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Roma||Palermo||8.8||4.3||13|
|22nd||Eng Lge 1||Chesterfield||Scunthorpe||7.1||5.7||12.86|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Portsmouth||Notts County||7.8||5||12.83|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Luton||Mansfield||7||5.7||12.67|
|22nd||Brasileiro||Sao Paulo||AA Ponte Preta||8.3||4.3||12.6|
Looking again but this time seeing who has the highest total. So the total for Rotherham v Reading is the total corners when Rotherham play at home (16) plus the total corners when Reading play away (11.5)
|22nd||Eng Lge 1||Shrewsbury||Northampton||12.1||14.1||13.14|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Newport County||Plymouth||13.5||12.7||13.08|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Roma||Palermo||15.5||10.5||13|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Luton||Mansfield||14.2||11.3||12.75|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Crawley Town||Accrington||12.8||11.7||12.25|
|23rd||Scot Prem||St. Johnstone||Dundee||10.8||13.8||12.25|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Wycombe||Barnet||10||14.4||12.2|
|22nd||Spa Primera||Real Sociedad||Deportivo Alaves||10||14.3||12.13|
|23rd||Swe Allsven||IFK Norrkoping||Falkenbergs||11.5||12.5||11.98|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Blackpool||Doncaster||12.5||11.3||11.92|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Grimsby||Cheltenham||11.3||12.5||11.92|
|22nd||Ita Serie A||AC Milan||Juventus||14||9.5||11.75|
|22nd||Eng Champ||Nottingham Forest||Cardiff||11||12.5||11.75|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Stevenage||Carlisle||10.7||12.7||11.67|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Exeter City||Cambridge||11.3||12||11.67|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Torino||Lazio||14||9.3||11.63|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Bologna||Sassuolo||9.3||14||11.63|
|22nd||Eng Lge 1||Oldham||Bristol Rovers||11.9||11.1||11.5|
Newport vs Plymouth features very highly in both tables. Out of interest if we take the average from both approaches the top 10 matches are:
|Date||League||Home||Away||Av 1||Av 2||Av|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Newport County||Plymouth||14.42||13.08||13.75|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Roma||Palermo||13||13||13|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Wycombe||Barnet||13.77||12.2||12.985|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Blackpool||Doncaster||13.83||11.92||12.875|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Luton||Mansfield||12.67||12.75||12.71|
|22nd||Eng Lge 1||Bradford||Sheffield Utd||14.71||10.07||12.39|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Atalanta||Inter Milan||13.5||11.25||12.375|
|23rd||Spa Primera||Real Madrid||Athletic Bilbao||13.25||11.5||12.375|