BTTS long list for w/end 28.02.2014

List of matches for the coming weekend where the both teams combined (home matches for the home team and away matches for the away team) have the highest percentages of BTTS so far this season.

DateLeagueHmAwHm % BTTSAw % BTTS% BothEq. Odds
1/3NL EridvisZwolleNijmegen7783801.25
1/3Ger BundLeverkusenMainz7382771.29
1/3Eng Lge 1Bristol CityGillingham7669731.38
1/3NL EridvisGo Ahead EaglesPSV Eindhoven7569721.39
28/2NL EridvisHeraclesHeerenveen6775711.41
1/3Eng ConfGatesheadForest Green5980691.44
1/3Eng ConfGrimsbySalisbury8056681.47
1/3Eng PremStokeArsenal6269651.53
1/3Eng PremSouthamptonLiverpool5477651.53
1/3Eng Lge 2CheltenhamBury6960641.55
1/3Eng ConfAldershotLincoln6069641.55
1/3Eng Lge 2Newport CountyScunthorpe6959641.56
1/3Eng Lge 1RotherhamNotts County7553641.56
1/3Eng Lge 1TranmereOldham6959641.57
1/3Eng ChampBoltonBlackburn6363631.6
1/3Eng ChampBurnleyDerby5669631.6
1/3Eng Lge 1CarlisleBrentford6560621.6
1/3Scot PremSt MirrenKilmarnock5469621.62
1/3Eng ChampReadingYeovil6360611.63
1/3NL EridvisDen HaagNAC Breda6754601.66
1/3Scot PremRoss CountyPartick5762591.69
1/3Ger BundDortmundNurnberg4573591.69
28/2Tur SuperBesiktasAntalyaspor4473591.71
1/3NL EridvisVitesseRoda JC5858581.71
1/3Ger BundAugsburgHannover7045581.73
28/2Fra Lig 1Evian Thonon GaillardNantes8531581.73
1/3Eng PremFulhamChelsea7738581.73
1/3Eng ConfChesterNuneaton Town5659581.74
1/3Scot PremMotherwellHearts5064571.75
1/3Eng Lge 2Fleetwood TownAFC Wimbledon6944561.78
1/3Fra Lig 1ReimsValenciennes5854561.78
1/3Fra Lig 1LorientBastia5062561.79
1/3Eng ConfWelling UnitedMacclesfield5060551.82
1/3Eng Lge 2NorthamptonBristol Rvs6050551.82
1/3Eng Lge 1Leyton OrientColchester5060551.82
1/3Eng ChampLeicesterCharlton5653551.83
1/3Eng Lge 2RochdaleOxford4763551.83
1/3Eng ChampHuddersfieldBarnsley6347551.83
1/3Ger BundWerder BremenHamburg4564551.83
1/3Eng Lge 1PrestonWalsall6344531.88
1/3Eng ConfHerefordWrexham4759531.89
28/2Tur SuperAkhisar BelediyesporBursaspor6045531.9
1/3Por SuperEstorilOlhanense6044521.91
1/3Eng Lge 2SouthendWycombe5053521.94
1/3Eng ChampSheffield WedsMiddlesbrough5350521.94
1/3Fra Lig 1RennesGuingamp6242521.94
1/3Eng Lge 1CreweSwindon5053511.94
28/2Spa PrimeraAth BilbaoGranada7725511.96
1/3Eng Lge 2YorkExeter3171511.96
1/3Fra Lig 1St EtienneMonaco5446502
1/3Eng ConfBarnetWoking5941502
1/3Fra Lig 1SochauxBordeaux3367502
1/3Eng ChampBournemouthDoncaster5644502
1/3Tur SuperEskisehirsporKasimpasa4060502
List of matches with possibilty of BTTS this weekend

Win to Nil This Weekend

I have looked at the home team’s home record and the away team away to come up with an idea of the most likely win to nils this weekend. For example I looked at Liverpool at home and found 5/13 matches they won to nil and combined that with Swansea away who have lost 7/13 away to nil.

DateLeagueHomeAway% W2Nil%L2Nil% CombinedEq. Odds
22-2English PremiershipMan CityStoke5046482.08
22-2Scottish PremierRoss CountySt Mirren3362472.11
23-2Italy Serie AUdineseAtalanta3658472.11
23-2English PremiershipLiverpoolSwansea3854462.17
23-2Greece Super LeagueAtromitosXanthi5438462.17
23-2Netherlands EredivisieAjaxAZ Alkmaar5833462.18
22-2France Ligue 1BordeauxEvian Thonon Gaillard4250462.18
22-2English PremiershipArsenalSunderland5433442.29
23-2Spain PrimeraValenciaGranada4245442.3
22-2English PremiershipWest BromFulham2362422.36
23-2France Ligue 1LilleLyon6717422.4
22-2English ConferenceForest GreenSouthport3844412.43
22-2English ChampionshipBrightonWigan3347402.5
23-2Italy Serie ALazioSassuolo3642392.56
23-2Portugal SuperligaPortoEstoril780392.57
22-2Scottish PremierSt JohnstoneInverness C5027392.59
23-2Greece Super LeagueGianninaVeria3838382.6
23-2Turkey Super LigTrabzonsporKayserispor3640382.62
22-2Greece Super LeagueLevadeiakosAsteras Tripolis5817382.67
23-2France Ligue 1NantesRennes4233382.67
22-2France Ligue 1MarseilleLorient2550382.67
Win to nil stats for the coming weekend

Over 2.5 goals by month chart

My job is working with data and working with charts and I find it slightly frustrating that I can’t use Highcharts easily within wordpress. I had ideas for posts that never got off the ground because I wanted to show them in chart form on the blog and it seemed too much work.

Anyway I realised I can just host the charts on a normal page and then just link the from the blog. Amazing!

So to follow up from my article about months I wanted to show some of the patterns that happen by month by league. The first thing I want to look at is how the number of games that go over 2.5 goals changes throughout the season.  The full chart can be seen here and you can add or remove leagues by clicking on the legend. I started with just 4 leagues as it makes it just about readable, but you can play around with the leagues and add and remove them.

Link to chart

Champions League Idea Week 6

Well a big winner in week 5 landing the draw

Zenit and Atletico Madrid to draw @ 3.4 with quite a few (Max is 3.5 with Tote and Fred) WON +2.4

So far the results have been very good with 7 winners from 12 bets and a +5.67 point profit. Going in to this last week it is very tough to call. I see 4 bets that come out well on the odds offered but the question is whether to back them or not as the last round can throw up some strange results. Also being in profit by so much I don’t want to throw it all away but the odds look very good.

I am only going with one bet which is

Napoli to win at home to Arsenal (2.55 max with Bet Victor)

The other 2 that would have been included are

Real Sociedad to win at home to Bayer Leverkusen @ 4 with most (NOT INCLUDED THOUGH)

Marseille +1 Asian Handicap at home to Dortmund @ 2.14 with Bet Victor (max 2.2 with PP)  (NOT INCLUDED THOUGH)

but Sociedad and Marseille have nothing to play for. If I can see the Sociedad line up and Griezmann and Vela play then you know they will have a go and with the pressure off it could be a fantastic bet. I can’t predict the lineups though so I have to let it slide.

Half Time Report (Betting School Article)

Another Betting School article. This time one I originally wrote in November 2010. This one looks at full time outcomes based on half time results.

When the half time whistle goes and you get the urge to make a bet is there anything the first half can tell you? Of course you will have seen how the match has panned out and make judgements on what you think will happen but can stats help? The aim of this article is to look at a few of the in-play markets on Betfair and see if we can get some valuable pointers to the outcome of the game based on the half time result.

The data I am looking at is from the top division in England, Spain and Italy for the seasons from 2005-2006 to 2009-2010. The statistics and pre-match odds for the 5700 matches come from the treasure trove that is www.football-data.co.uk .

The in-play data was downloaded from the Betfair data site and is for the entire 2009-2010 season.  The Betfair data files contain so much information that all I have is the in-play data so the pre-match prices come from football-data. I have taken the half time data as prices that occur 50 minutes after match kick off.

Strong Favourites

The idea for this article came when watching Real Madrid away at Levante this season which was scoreless at half time. Looking at the data for the game I can see at kick off Madrid were matched at 1.24 on Betfair and this increased to 1.39 at half time.  I was convinced they would win and as the odds drifted, I decided they were great value and at half time and made my bet.

Let’s look at the results of some of these strong favourites. In the last 5 seasons in the 3 leagues I am using there were only 13 occasions when the away team was priced 1.3 or below. Interestingly on 6 of those occasions they were drawing at half time and went on to win. An example is Real Madrid on 13/02/2010 at Xerez when they were also drawing 0-0 at half time. On this occasion they started the game at 1.27 and could have been backed at 1.47 at half time before going on to win 3-0.

That’s not enough data so let’s look at home strong favourites, which I classify as teams priced at 1.3 or less using BbMxH (Betbrain maximum home win odds). All in all there have been 344 of these matches and the home team won 293 (85%) of these games.  If we look at games that were draws at half time we are left with 114 matches and the home team won 85 of them (74%).  To break even backing those teams we would need odds of 1.41 taking into account betfair commission of 5%. I have chosen 4 of those games to look at the Betfair data and get an idea of the sort of odds available.

Div

Date

Home

Away

First Match Odds in play

Match odds at HT

Eng Prem

26/12/2009

Liverpool

Wolves

1.3

1.61

Ita Seria A

09/01/2010

Inter

Siena

1.23

1.56

Eng Prem

31/10/2009

Man United

Blackburn

1.22

1.46

Spa Primera

26/09/2009

Real Madrid

Tenerife

1.11

1.3


In 3 out of 4 of these games the price required is reached and the game that didn’t had the home team ridiculously short (only 18 of the 114 matches had home odds lower than 1.2). This looks like a strategy with some promise but are there any angles that strengthen the chances of the game ending in a home win? Let’s check by leagues

Div

HT Draws

Won

Drew

Lost

Win %

Eng Prem

59

42

16

1

71%

Ita Seria A

27

18

8

1

67%

Spa Primera

28

25

1

2

89%

Clearly Spain looks the best league with which to follow this strategy. Spain, like Scotland, has a very unhealthy two team domination and Barcelona or Real Madrid have won the league in all but 4 of the last 26 seasons. The Big 2 therefore have a strong advantage and that would account for these figures.

Looking at games poised at 1-1 as opposed to 0-0 we see

Div

HT Draws

Won

Drew

Lost

Win %

Eng Prem

11

8

3

0

73%

Ita Seria A

6

5

1

0

83%

Spa Primera

10

9

1

0

90%

 Not a huge amount of data but a game that is already 1-1 looks more likely to go on to be a home win than a game that is goalless.  I think this demonstrates that although the chance of a home win decreases slightly when a match is all square at half time, the odds more than make up for this and provide value.

Going back to the Real Madrid game I was watching; the game stayed at 0-0 despite Real Madrid having 25 shots. There are numerous occasions when you watch this type of game and the pressure the favourite exerts increases and increase before the smaller team cracks and I’d back Real Madrid in the same position again.

For the record these are all the teams that started at odds of 1.3 or lower and their performance when drawing at half time. I only included teams with at least 4 matches.

Team

HT Draws

Won

Drew

Lost

Win %

Real Madrid

5

5

100%

Barcelona

13

12

1

92%

Man United

13

11

2

85%

Arsenal

4

3

1

75%

Inter

7

5

2

71%

Milan

3

2

1

67%

Chelsea

12

7

5

58%

Juventus

4

2

2

50%

Liverpool

5

2

3

40%

Scoreless second half

A number of Betfair markets such as next goal, correct score and the over/under markets are affected by the number of second half goals. Let’s look at the chances of a scoreless second half by league.

Div

Scoreless 2nd Half

Matches

% matches scoreless 2nd Half

Eng Prem

455

1900

24%

Spa Primera

434

1900

23%

Ita Seria A

432

1900

23%

Total

1321

5700

23%

 

There seems little difference across these leagues and in general  just under 1 in 4 matches has a scoreless second half. The next step is to see if the half time score affects that.

HT Score

Scoreless 2nd Half

Matches

% matches scoreless 2nd Half

0-0

455

1823

25.0%

1-0

297

1229

24.2%

0-1

165

846

19.5%

1-1

137

591

23.2%

2-0

99

392

25.3%

2-1

46

202

22.8%

0-2

33

193

17.1%

1-2

22

117

18.8%

3-0

20

89

22.5%

2-2

13

55

23.6%

 

The most interesting stat for me here is that a game that is 2-0 at half time is as likely to be scoreless in the second half as a game that is 0-0 and the chance is still 1 in 4.  To investigate this further I dropped all matches with a strong favourite which I classify as teams priced at 1.3 or less using BbMxH (Betbrain maximum home win odds). In the Betfair data for 2009/2010 I was left with 66 games that were 2-0 at half time.

In these games I want to see what sort of profit would have been made backing the no goals being scored in the second half. A 2-0 half time game has a number of markets which are all the same such as 2-0 correct score, no next goal and under 2.5 and it’s the latter I will use as the data is easiest to deal with having just 2 outcomes and also better liquidity.

The full table showing all 66 results is produced at the end of the article. I looked for an under 2.5 goals price matched around 50 minutes after the start of the match. 20 of the 66 games went on to stay 2-0 and backing under 2.5 goals at the half time price I found would have returned a whopping 23 points profit which is an ROI of around 35%. The results also demonstrate the fluctuations that can happen in betting. If you started this idea on the opening Saturday of the season come Valentines Day you would have been in love with it, up 33 points and with an ROI of over 80%! The other people you told about it who started the day after might not have been so pleased with the 9 point loss they were saddled with to the end of the season. The same odds would no doubt be available for backing 2-0 as a correct score or no next goal.

In conclusion it looks like goals do not necessarily mean more goals although the perception of the general betting public is that it does.

Will they draw?

On a similar theme does the half time score affect the chance of the game drawing. Here is a list of scores and the chance of the game ending in a draw.

HT Score

Ends in draw

Matches

% Chance of draw

2-2

19

46

41%

0-0

673

1745

39%

1-1

206

564

37%

1-2

30

116

26%

0-1

194

830

23%

1-0

223

1122

20%

2-1

30

183

16%

0-2

15

191

8%

2-0

21

337

6%

3-0

1

75

1%

Quite clear if a game is a draw at half time then there’s a good chance of the final score being a draw. In this case what stands out to me is the fact that games that are 1-0 or 2-1 have a much lower draw chance and worth looking to see if laying the draw is possible.

In this case checking the Betfair data is not as easy as before as the data is only stamped as to when it first and last occurred.  Therefore an odds value may occur in the first half, half time and the second half but it is not possible to know the half time value as only the first and last time the odds were taken is available without paying.

In this case I have looked at games where the away team started off as a favourite (BbMxA > BbMxH) to give myself an idea of the target odds.

Div

FT Draw

Matches

% FT Draws

Betfair Odds Required

Eng Prem

8

65

12.3%

8.125

Ita Serie A

8

59

13.6%

7.375

Spa Primera

7

49

14.3%

7

It would be nice to prove this as a back or lay strategy but as the data does not allow it and it will have to be a watching brief.

Conclusion

The two clear messages that come out of this are firstly, that if a team are strong pre-game favourites the drift of odds in play can work in your favour. If I see Real Madrid again drawing at half time I will be happy to go in again and back them to win hoping that 25 shots will be enough this time! Secondly, goals do not necessarily mean more goals and if you want to stand out from the crowd go under as that seems to be where the money is.

 

Table showing Betfair in play half time odds for under 2.5 goals when the HT score was 2-0

Div

Date

Home

Away

First In Play Match

Under 2.5 Match at HT

Final Score

Profit less 5%

Eng Prem

15/08/2009

Stoke

Burnley

1.78

3.8

2-0

2.66

Ita Serie A

30/08/2009

Napoli

Livorno

1.88

4.3

3-1

-1

Ita Serie A

30/08/2009

Sampdoria

Udinese

2.14

5

3-1

-1

Ita Serie A

19/09/2009

Juventus

Livorno

2.18

5.7

2-0

4.465

Eng Prem

19/09/2009

Aston Villa

Portsmouth

2.06

4.4

2-0

3.23

Ita Serie A

20/09/2009

Sampdoria

Siena

2

5

4-1

-1

Spa Primera

20/09/2009

Ath Bilbao

Villarreal

1.92

4.2

3-2

-1

Ita Serie A

20/09/2009

Chievo

Genoa

1.77

4.4

3-1

-1

Spa Primera

22/09/2009

Sevilla

Mallorca

2.28

5.3

2-0

4.085

Eng Prem

26/09/2009

Tottenham

Burnley

2.72

5.7

5-0

-1

Spa Primera

27/09/2009

Zaragoza

Getafe

2

4.1

3-0

-1

Ita Serie A

04/10/2009

Palermo

Juventus

2.02

6.2

2-0

4.94

Spa Primera

18/10/2009

Zaragoza

Santander

2.02

4.8

2-2

-1

Ita Serie A

28/10/2009

Juventus

Sampdoria

2.02

4.3

5-1

-1

Eng Prem

31/10/2009

Arsenal

Tottenham

2.74

5.4

3-0

-1

Eng Prem

31/10/2009

Stoke

Wolves

1.74

3.9

2-2

-1

Eng Prem

31/10/2009

Portsmouth

Wigan

1.82

4.3

4-0

-1

Ita Serie A

28/11/2009

Udinese

Livorno

1.7

3.9

2-0

2.755

Spa Primera

29/11/2009

Valladolid

Tenerife

1.95

4.1

3-3

-1

Eng Prem

05/12/2009

Aston Villa

Hull

2.02

4.6

3-0

-1

Spa Primera

19/12/2009

Ath Bilbao

Osasuna

1.71

4.3

2-0

3.135

Eng Prem

26/12/2009

Man City

Stoke

1.94

4.4

2-0

3.23

Eng Prem

11/01/2010

Man City

Blackburn

2.04

4.2

4-1

-1

Spa Primera

16/01/2010

Osasuna

Espanol

1.59

4.1

2-0

2.945

Eng Prem

16/01/2010

Everton

Man City

1.94

4.3

2-0

3.135

Ita Serie A

17/01/2010

Roma

Genoa

2.1

4.8

3-0

-1

Spa Primera

17/01/2010

Valencia

Villarreal

2.14

5.3

4-1

-1

Ita Serie A

24/01/2010

Genoa

Atalanta

1.93

3.95

2-0

2.8025

Ita Serie A

24/01/2010

Palermo

Fiorentina

1.8

4.2

3-0

-1

Eng Prem

27/01/2010

Everton

Sunderland

1.99

5

2-0

3.8

Eng Prem

31/01/2010

Man City

Portsmouth

2.14

4.5

2-0

3.325

Spa Primera

06/02/2010

Valencia

Valladolid

2.46

5.3

2-0

4.085

Eng Prem

06/02/2010

Stoke

Blackburn

1.68

3.45

3-0

-1

Ita Serie A

07/02/2010

Inter

Cagliari

2.26

5.7

3-0

-1

Eng Prem

07/02/2010

Chelsea

Arsenal

1.95

4.2

2-0

3.04

Eng Prem

09/02/2010

Fulham

Burnley

1.73

4.8

3-0

-1

Ita Serie A

13/02/2010

Sampdoria

Fiorentina

1.78

3.9

2-0

2.755

Ita Serie A

14/02/2010

Cagliari

Bari

1.8

4.5

3-1

-1

Spa Primera

21/02/2010

Ath Bilbao

Tenerife

1.93

5.7

4-1

-1

Ita Serie A

21/02/2010

Cagliari

Parma

1.96

4.2

2-0

3.04

Ita Serie A

21/02/2010

Palermo

Lazio

1.87

3.6

3-1

-1

Ita Serie A

27/02/2010

Catania

Bari

1.71

3.7

4-0

-1

Ita Serie A

28/02/2010

Milan

Atalanta

2.24

4.8

3-1

-1

Eng Prem

28/02/2010

Tottenham

Everton

1.82

4.2

2-1

-1

Spa Primera

07/03/2010

Ath Bilbao

Valladolid

1.92

4.3

2-0

3.135

Eng Prem

20/03/2010

Sunderland

Birmingham

1.72

3.75

3-1

-1

Spa Primera

20/03/2010

Xerez

Tenerife

2

5.3

2-1

-1

Eng Prem

28/03/2010

Liverpool

Sunderland

2.3

6.6

3-0

-1

Spa Primera

28/03/2010

Villarreal

Sevilla

1.99

5.4

3-0

-1

Spa Primera

28/03/2010

Xerez

Valladolid

1.74

4.4

3-0

-1

Spa Primera

03/04/2010

Sevilla

Tenerife

2.36

4.4

3-0

-1

Ita Serie A

03/04/2010

Catania

Palermo

1.69

4.7

2-0

3.515

Eng Prem

03/04/2010

Sunderland

Tottenham

1.98

4.7

3-1

-1

Ita Serie A

11/04/2010

Roma

Atalanta

2.48

4.9

2-1

-1

Spa Primera

11/04/2010

Ath Bilbao

Almeria

1.96

4.6

4-1

-1

Spa Primera

11/04/2010

Mallorca

Valencia

2.02

5

3-2

-1

Eng Prem

17/04/2010

Sunderland

Burnley

2.24

5.2

2-1

-1

Spa Primera

17/04/2010

Villarreal

Ath Madrid

2.42

5

2-1

-1

Eng Prem

17/04/2010

Tottenham

Chelsea

2.12

5.9

2-1

-1

Eng Prem

19/04/2010

Liverpool

West Ham

2.02

4.7

3-0

-1

Eng Prem

24/04/2010

Bolton

Portsmouth

2.1

4.8

2-2

-1

Ita Serie A

24/04/2010

Palermo

Milan

2.08

5.1

3-1

-1

Spa Primera

25/04/2010

Ath Madrid

Tenerife

2.1

5.9

3-1

-1

Eng Prem

01/05/2010

Birmingham

Burnley

1.91

4.4

2-1

-1

Spa Primera

08/05/2010

Villarreal

Valencia

2.6

6.4

2-0

5.13

Ita Serie A

15/05/2010

Milan

Juventus

2.38

6

3-0

-1

 

TOTAL

23.21

AVERAGE

2.02

4.73

0.35