Simple Weekend (Mentality)

When betting on football one of the hardest things is riding the losing runs. There has been a lot written about that kind of thing and last year a few of us in the office read Trading Bases by Joe Peta which is a great story of a year betting on Baseball. It’s a very interesting read and talks about the ups and downs and nearly got some of us interested in baseball.

 

The reason we write this is because we have been following a system for a number of years and it really was struggling. We’ve written about it before and we call it Island Hopping and involves backing certain teams based on Islands in European Leagues. Things always change and you start doubting your ideas and second guessing yourself but handily we kept the stakes high and last Friday night were rewarded when Maritimo won at home to Benfica at a price of 10.0. Such an enormous price for a home winner and highlighted again to us the importance of discipline and belief. It’s a great system again!

The Difficult Weekend

This week and next weekend will be difficult ones to post on. Apologies for that and hopefully back to normal on 9th December.

The Simple Weekend (Tweets)

Always nice to get to Friday and it’s a big weekend for football. Bet365 tweeted the big games and it is impressive

On the subject of twitter we send out stats on Twitter highlighting games that pass a certain threshold. We get some nice tweets in return but also sometimes just unhelpful stuff like

All the tweets we send are just advice and for users to check them out further. Sadly we don’t have prices for all the tweets we have sent but there have been 390 tweets for over/under 2.5 bets and we have prices for all of these. We took the average price from football-data.co.uk for these as that seemed a better guide of whether they can be profitable or not. Over the 390 bets the loss has been 3.32 points which really is less than a loss of 1% of the total stakes. Using best prices or just Betfair you’d assume a decent profit could be made.

So really when people day it’s a horrible way to price a market it’s not necessarily the case and worth looking into the results first.

There have been 13/21 winning bets this season for a profit of 0.93pts. If we were to use maximum price then the profit would increase to 1.95pts with each winning bet on average having an 0.08 improvement in profit. There have been 238 winning bets so if they all had an 0.05pt improvement, so less than the average we saw above, then it’s an 11.9pt increase in profit so it seems as if backing these blindly at good prices will produce a profit.

Will get a full list of these bets for next week.

 

 

The Simple Weekend (Internationals)

The international break is always a barren time for football but Brazil did beat Argentina last night in a decent game.

The European qualification is so diluted that you rarely get a decent match between big teams.

There are no international stats on the site and was looking round for international ratings and found an article on the Pinnacle website that goes through international ratings before Euro 2016 started and is quite interesting. Another article on the Rostrum goes into FIFA rankings and compares them to ELO to see which could be better.

The lower leagues all have matches and we have stats for those as per usual and will be back with a bigger weekender next time.

The Simple Weekend (Roundup)

No new stats this weekend as time got the better of us all here. A quick summary on the corner bets from last weekend.

DateLeagueHomeAwayAvActual
22nd OctEng Lge 2Newport CountyPlymouth13.7512
22nd OctEng ChampRotherhamReading13.0413
23rd OctIta Serie ARomaPalermo138
22nd OctEng Lge 2WycombeBarnet12.9859
22nd OctEng Lge 2BlackpoolDoncaster12.8758
22nd OctEng PremBournemouthTottenham12.81511
22nd OctEng Lge 2LutonMansfield12.7118
22nd OctEng Lge 1BradfordSheffield Utd12.3914
23rd OctIta Serie AAtalantaInter Milan12.3754
23rd OctSpa PrimeraReal MadridAthletic Bilbao12.37510
22nd OctEng Lge 1ShrewsburyNorthampton12.1413

 

Half of the 10 went 12 or more and half were 11 or under. Would have been interesting to know what the lines were for each of these matches. The 3 games not in England all went under and it could be worth looking into the historical English results to see how these sort of teams performed.

Stats back next weekend.