The season comes round even quicker this year as the world cup is in the summer and everyone needs to finish early. I am back posting again now and working on the site.
The top goalscorer market is one I have always paid a bit of interest in and in the table below I have listed all the past winners, the goals they scored the year before and the finishing position of their team.
|Year||Golden Boot||Club||Goals||Team Position||Prev Season|
|1992–93||Teddy Sheringham||Notts Forest/Spurs||22||Eighth||13 (1st Div)|
|1993–94||Andy Cole||Newcastle United||34||Third||24 (1st Div)|
|1995–96||Alan Shearer||Newcastle United||31||Second||34|
|1996–97||Alan Shearer||Newcastle United||25||Second||31|
|1998–99||Dwight Yorke||Manchester United||18||Winner||12|
|1999–2000||Kevin Phillips||Sunderland||18||Seventh||23 (First Div)|
|2000–01||JF Hasselbaink||Chelsea||18||Sixth||24 (Spain)|
|2002–03||Ruud van Nistelrooy||Manchester United||25||Winner||23|
|2007–08||Cristiano Ronaldo||Manchester United||31||Winner||17|
|2010–11||Carlos Tévez||Manchester City||20||Third||23|
|2010–11||Dimitar Berbatov||Manchester United||20||Winner||12|
|2011–12||Robin van Persie||Arsenal||30||Third||18|
|2012–13||Robin van Persie||Manchester United||26||Winner||30|
Since the 2001-02 season the top goalscorer title has been won by a team that finished in the top 4. The title has been shared once and so we have 13 winners and 7 of them won the league. This season Robin Van Persie is trying to win his third consecutive title and that is something only Shearer and Henry have managed in the last 20 years. In fact they are the only 2 players to win the title more than twice.
Van Persie heads the market at 4/1 and that looks short to me. In his first 7 seasons in the premier league he never managed over 28 matches but in the last 2 seasons has player all 38 matches. He no longer seems injury prone but that is pretty impressive not to miss a match. He is due to miss a few matches and also I am off the opinion United will not be as good this season.
Last season was a bit of a freakish one in terms of goals as out of the top 4 teams the second highest scorer was Frank Lampard with 15. That should not happen again and the big 4 teams should produce more of a challenge.
No player has ever arrived in the Premier League for the first time and been the top scorer although Benteke last season managed 19 last year, Aguerro had 23 the year before and amazingly Roque Santa Cruz knew where the net was on his debut season at Blackburn netting 19 goals.
Although the top scorer is often one of the big 4 some players for smaller teams do well and can provide value at decent prices. For example
2012-13 – Beneteke scored 19 (4th) and Michu 18 (5th)
2011-12 – Dempsey scored 17 (4th)
2010-11 – Bent scored 17 (4th)and Odemwingie 15 (5th)
2009-10 – Bent scord 24 (3rd)
2008-09 – Robinho scored 14 (4th)
Darren Bet’s 24 goals in 2009-10 would have won him the title in 2008-09 and 2010-11 so there is the possibility of a surprise package.
Who might win it? Well, we should look at who will finish in the top 4 and also look at players that scored at least 11 goals last season. Drogba is the only player to have scored less than 11 goals since 1997-98 in their previous season and win the award.
The top 4 will be between Man City, Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs.
Man City – Too many forwards so they will be rested. Van Persie played 38 games but I can’t see that for any City player. Aguero is the pick of the bunch as Dzeko won’t play enough, Jovetic is not a natural goalscorer and I think Negredo will take a while to get used to the Prem.
Chelsea- Despite playing over 32 matches each of the last 3 seasons Torres has managed just 10,6 and 8 goals. Lukaku is the one who stands out here. He managed 17 goals for West Brom last season and made a lot of subs appearances. Mourinho will not play Torres unless he produces the goods and if Lukaku gets a run he will score goals and Mourinho’s teams score goals.
Man Utd – Only Van Persie but at 4/1 it’s no value at all
Arsenal – Walcott had 21 goals in all competitions last year and could well be close to 20 in the league this year. Giroud has scored 14,9,21,12,21 and 11 goals in the last 6 seasons so looks due a bigger number this time round. He started very slowly last season and has less pressure this time round.
Liverpool – Suarez’s ban is big to start and who knows what else will happen.
Spurs – Soldado will score and will do well in England. He works hard and the fans will like him and it depends how quickly he settles. I have been a fan of him and he was captain at Valencia for the example he showed.
Personally I am going to do the following (all bookmakers pay 1/4 odds on top 4 positions)
Lukaku – 1pt e/w at 25/1 (generally)
Giroud – 1pt e/w at 40/1 (A few like Bet365 and PP)
Soldado – 2pts e/w at 18/1 (A few like Bet365 and VC and even 20/1 with Lads)
Bent – 0.5pts e/w at 80/1 with William Hill and Sporting Bet
That’s a 9pt outlay and could easily fall flat on my face.