Chelsea’s defeat at Newcastle United on Saturday may have seen their quest to become ‘invincibles’ and go the length of the Premier League season unbeaten come to an end but their achievement should not be underestimated. In starting the season in such fine form the Blues have opened up a three point cushion at the top of the table and, despite Saturday’s defeat, they will still be confident of winning the league for the first time since 2009/10. A quick look at the odds would suggest that most punters still fancy the Blues too, with Betfair offering 1/2 and, if you stake £10 now, you could earn £30 of free bets.
Image by: In Mou We Trust
We all know that Arsenal were the last team to be crowned ‘invincibles’ in 2003/04 and that they went on to win the league that year by 11 points from Chelsea but, after 15 games they were actually in a worse position than Chelsea are now. Despite not having lost, Arsenal were second in the table after 15 games, one point behind Chelsea, and they had only amassed 35 points. Chelsea are currently sitting on 36 points.
No Repeat for Arsene
Since the ‘Invincibles’ of 2003/04 two teams (other than Chelsea this season) have managed to start the campaign with a run of 14 unbeaten Premier League matches. In 2007/08 Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal were at it again, this time managing to go on a 15 game unbeaten run before, like Mourinho’s side, coming unstuck in the North East, losing 2-1 at Middlesboro. That season the Gunners tailed off, eventually finishing third behind Manchester United and Chelsea.
Everything to Play For
If Jose Mourinho is looking for inspiration he would do well to avoid looking back at Arsenal’s 2007/08 decline and should, instead focus on a more recent season. In 2011/12 Roberto Mancini’s Manchester City went 14 games unbeaten before a 3-2 defeat at Stamford Bridge. Unlike Arsene Wenger’s team, however, City were able to recover and eventually won the Premier League on goal difference from Manchester United. Whilst Mourinho will certainly be hoping that this season is not as tight a finish, he should take comfort in City’s achievement and remind his players that although the record may have gone, they still have everything to play for.
Since pinnacle decided to stop offering odds to UK punters I have had to search for an alternative odds supplier. It was a case of looking at which bookmakers offered an odds feed that are reputable and offer decent prices.
The one chosen was dafabet and looking through the matches this weekend they are very competitive and are better priced than Pinnacle on a number of the Asian Handicap markets. This now means all users have Dafabet and 5Dimes prices and non-UK users also still have Pinnacle.
Dafabet are sponsors of Aston Villa which probably helped in their decision to stick in the UK market when a number of the other Asian firms pulled out. To open an account with Dafabet click here.
From time to time I receive emails from people asking what various abbreviations mean on the site. It makes sense to make a blog post that lists them and which can be added to and referred to.
BTTS – Both teams to score. Bookmakers often offer markets based on both teams to score and combine it with other bets such as both teams to score and one team to win.
P – Played which is matches played.
F – For which is corners for the selected team.
A – Against which is corners against the selected team (corners they have conceded).
TOT – Total corners
XC – Cross corners which is home team corners x away team corners
HC – Home corners – corners for the home team
AC – Away corners – corners for the away team
TC – Total corners
CD – Corner difference which is home corners – away corners
Will add abbreviations to this any time they are requested.
Great way to round this off with a profit. Got the draw in the Juve game although Atletico continued to drift and were backable at 5.3 before the game.
Juventus v Atletico Madrid – Draw @ 3.1 with VC, WH, Lads and others – WON (1-1) +2.1
Roma v Manchester City – Roma @ 2.5 with Bet365, Lads, WH and BF – LOST (0-2) -1
At the end of the group stages this has again turned a tidy profit and very pleasing. The knockout is a whole different ball game and what patterns used to exist were blown out of the water last year with the group winners completely dominating.
19 bets, 9 wins, 19pts staked, +7.85pts
The story so far – 17 bets, 8 wins, 14pts staked, +6.75pts
Last matchday of the group stages and a couple more bets. Chelsea and Shaktar both look value but neither of those games means anything for them so I’ll swerve those and stick to games that mean something.
Juventus v Atletico Madrid – Draw @ 3.1 with VC, WH, Lads and others
Roma v Manchester City – Roma @ 2.5 with Bet365, Lads, WH and BF
The Juventus game is interesting as the draw has been hammered right in to 3.1. Olympiakos have the edge over Juve in the H2H which I think is the first way they decide the groups and if Olympiakos win and Juve lose then Juve could go out. A draw suits Juve and also lets Atletico top the group, but really Juve have to want to top the group as that means you avoid Bayern, Real Madrid, Chelsea and PSG/Barca. It’s one of those games where if the draw keeps crashing then the value on the win part is much bigger. Atletico will settle for the draw late on and Juve might not search out a winner but the rest, you’d expect to a proper contest.
Juve have lost twice already and were 2-1 down at home to Olympiakos before winning 3-2 and Serie A still hasn’t shown itself to be a strong league compared to the rest of Europpe and the 4.33 on Atleti is starting to appeal and if they go out to 4.5 I think there’s big value there.