European Teams in the World Club Championship

Barcelona play Guangzhou Evergrande tonight in the Fifa Club World Cup. Their odds to win the match are around with 1.13 and even without Neymar you would expect them to breeze this. They next play in the league on 30th December at home to Real Betis so there is no big games to keep the players fresh for and Messi needs a few more games to improve his fitness so would be expected to play.



The table below shows how the European team has done in the last 5 Club World Cups as well as their performance against the -2 and -2.5 Asian Handicap

DateTeam 11G2GTeam 2-2 AH-2.5AH
20.12.2014Real Madrid20San LorenzoVoidLose
16.12.2014Cruz Azul04Real MadridWinWin
21.12.2013Bayern Munich20Raja CasablancaVoidLose
17.12.2013Guangzhou Evergrande03Bayern MunichWinWin
19.12.2009Estudiantes L.P.11*BarcelonaLoseLose

The European team plays just 2 matches in this tournament and in those 10 matches have conceeded goals in only 2 and none in the last 4 years. It seems clear there is a big gulf in class between the European teams and the others in this and the -2 Asian Handicap looks an interesting bet. The price is 1.72 with Dafabet and although that might not appeal to everyone it has lost just once in the last 10 years. 3 times the handicap was matched and so the stake was returned and a winner on 6 occasions which looks decent value.


The -2.5 handicap does not look as secure and other appealing bets are the win to nil market but the Barcelona -2 Asian Handicap bet looks safest.

17 Dec, 15 | Posted in: Tips | Comments Closed

Champions League: Matchday 6 Roundup

Wolfsburg – Manchester United – Manchester United@ 3.28 with Pinnacle LOST (3-2) -1

Chelsea v FC Porto – Chelsea @ 2.0 with Dafabet WON (2-0) +1

2 bets, 1 win, 2pts staked, 0pts


Results so far

21 bets, 6 wins, 21pts staked, -5.29pts


Ends with a no loss day and another disappointing night for Man United. Bet on them 4 times this season in this and they lost 3 of those costing -2.2 points. Missed a few draws as well but hard to put any positive spin on such a big loss.

Champions League: Matchday 6

The story so far – 19 bets, 5 wins, 19pts staked, -5.29pts


It’s going to be a losing system this year which is a shame and a couple of bets in the last round both on English teams who have had their fair share of troubles this season.


Wolfsburg – Manchester United – Manchester United@ 3.28 with Pinnacle

Chelsea v FC Porto – Chelsea @ 2.0 with Dafabet

Tweeted Stats Overdue summer roundup

The tweeted stats have been on a good run lately and the results can now be seen here nicely split up, but have not rounded them up since  June. There were 48 bets across the months June to September so they are grouped together by month below.


The majority of these games were in leagues where there is no historical prices for the matches so it is unable to see if they were profitable or not.


MonthBet TypeWonLostSRP/LCum P/L
Jun-15Under 2.52167%00
Jul-15Over 2.54267%00
Jul-15Under 2.53350%00
Jul-15Win HT/FT1325%00
Jul-15Win to Nil1150%00
Aug-15Over 2.54357%00
Aug-15Under 2.53260%00
Aug-15Win HT/FT1150%00
Aug-15Win to Nil010%00
Sep-15Over 2.51233%-1-1
Sep-15Under 2.52340%0-1
Sep-15Win to Nil10100%0-1


Champions League: Matchday 5 Roundup

Always hard to do roundups when things go wrong and feel a bit like Ottamendi looks below. Two losses here as Zenit proved too good for Valencia and Man Utd were very disappointing.



Zenit vs Valencia – Draw @ 3.32 with 5Dimes LOST (2-0) -1

Manchester United vs PSV  – Manchester United -1 @ 1.84 with Dafabet LOST (0-0) -1

2 bets, 0 wins, 2pts staked, -2pts


Results so far

19 bets, 5 wins, 19pts staked, -5.29pts


The strike rate is always pretty low for this and it relies on there being one or two shocks. Decision making might need to be revised as there is now a strict hierachy in the champions league and the real big guns like Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich do not give a fair representation on their countries. Bayern Munich are on a completely different level to the other German clubs now and this idea needs to reflect that.