Stats Prove Sneijder’s Influence on Teams

Why Wesley Sneijder hasn’t already been snapped up by a big Premier League club is a real surprise, for his figures show the Dutchman as one of the most influential top-class midfielders in Europe right now.

The 29-year-old, a popular character with fans having a punt at betfair, is determined to leave Galatasaray this summer and is flirting with both Chelsea and Manchester City, yet neither club have got their act together and put a genuine bid in.

This may be to do with Sneijder’s ridiculous wage demands – thought to be over £150,000 a week – but his purchase value is so low that shouldn’t really be a problem for these two big-spending outfits.

Despite a nightmare finish to his stint at Inter, Sneijder has rekindled his career at Galatasaray and helped the club win the Turkish Super Lig this summer, scoring four in 16. Betting fans know of his influence in the midfield, for Galatasaray won 69% of their games Sneijder appeared in and just 54% when he didn’t.

From his four appearances in the Champions League for Gala, Sneijder earned a goal and averaged just under two shots on target per game – not a bad yield against a sturdy Schalke back four and Real Madrid’s worldly talents.

Yet it is on the international front that Sneijder really impresses. He impressed football punters and won the midfielder of the year prize at the 2010 World Cup, having scored five goals in seven games, including that magnificent brace against Brazil.

It was Holland’s brash tactics that centred on containing Spain before hitting Arjen Robben on the break that hampered his performance in the World Cup final.

If Chelsea sell Juan Mata this summer, then Jose Mourinho needs an adequate replacement and, although Sneijder has little sell-on value, he will give the Blues three solid years in their attacking unit.

City, meanwhile, are less likely to go for him when you consider their bolstered midfield but big changes could come in at Eastlands if Manuel Pellegrini gets his own way.

BTTS (Guest Article)

Jonny Grossmark offered me the chance to feature one of his articles and like a tv with a broken volume control I could not turn it down.

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Goals Galore betting has become very popular in recent years and the bookmakers have been quick to offer the general public the ability to bet on an individual game (BTTS) Both Teams to Score or in a minimum of 3 matches were the the slogan is ;

“when both teams score it is goals galore”

You can even do a lucky dip with  a fixed price for the 3 correct at 3/1 and 4 correct at 11/2 and 5 correct at 10/1 and 6 correct at 16/1 moving up to 15 correct at 1350/1 so if you simply backed 3 matches to end BTTS YES then this bookmaker would pay you £4 back with £3 being your net profit.

On line Betting tipsters who are not directly associated with the bookmakers but either charge for their “tips’ or are paid by the bookmakers to promote them are now trying to also cash in on what has become a very popular bet with the general public.

As an example i found  a free tipping site with a Betfred goals galore logo with the offer to back 4 matches at 8/1 with Betfred to all score. In the four games offered six of the teams did score and Aston Villa and Northampton were the two teams to not score.

The key is whether 8/1 is a fair price for having to predict all 8 teams to score in four games and to make this analysis easier to understand I have looked at BTTS in the EPL 2008-2009 to the current date so we can look at individual teams and work out what price is required just to break even.

The BetFred advert says meet Dave who has won at 12/1 as he backed 4 teams to score on the Betfred enhanced coupon which means that the odds were increased.

What is of great interest is the profile of Dave who is a white male and about 28 years old who wears glasses and the perception would be that he is well educated and probably went to University.

When betfred looked for someone to be the face of their campaign, they would have done a lot of market research and discovered that people who bet on line are drawn to the idea that they  could become a “winner” and they aspire to be like Dave who is well educated and by inference must live in a nice house and obviously has a great job and is a winner in life as he has just had a 12/1 winner backing goals galore and this must be sensible behaviour.

With the increased turnover in people betting on the internet as a result of all the media coverage which has extended to the use of twitter and facebook to trigger “bet stimulation” I would think it would be a good time to regulate the industry to make sure that all advisory services provide their profit and loss for the whole season so that people can make an informed opinion and we must also recognise that past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

BTTS YES betting has become so popular that over the last few months the bookmakers have had to cut the prices because there has been very little betting on BTTS No and this has resulted in a one sided book so the bookmakers do not want to be left in this position so have no choice but to cut the price of BTTS YES.

My question is why is the bet so popular and do people make long term profits from this bet?

Firstly the majority of people bet on an event to happen such as goals or a team to win and this would explain why so few people back a game to end in a draw. The mindset in the majority of people is to follow a perceived trend which is generally triggered by media coverage. What is of great concern is that the majority of people who are betting on BTTS YES are only looking on a game by game basis so if their BTTS bet wins then the “tipster” who advised that bet will reinforce that the bet is a good bet and if it loses it turns into an unlucky bet that was a value bet.

If we look at Arsenal v Manchester City then a number of people backed BTTS Yes because the most high profile advisory service advised the bet.

If you backed BTTS in this game then you lost the bet as the final score was Arsenal 0 Man City 2 and i am wondering how much research went into advising the bet?

We can use predictive modeling to give an expectation of the goals that both teams will score using shot on target data and goal to shot on target expectation.

In this game my predictive model had both teams scoring around 1.6 goals each in the game so on the surface the bet looks like a good idea but you will not believe what the price was as some bookmakers were going as low as 1.53 so they have the belief that there is around a 65% chance that both teams would have scored.

If we look historically at games involving Arsenal at Home to Man City in the EPL, we see that the last 5 games have now ended BTTS NO so that would not have inspired any confidence in backing a 1.53 shot even though each game is a seperate entity.

There are in running factors that will impede goal expectation.

1. Heavy rain will reduce the expectation of goals.

2. A Red card will impede goal expectation to the team with 10 men

3. Lack of motivation can reduce the expectation of a goal.

4. Inability to have the strength of shot to consider expectation of a goal. When QPR played Spurs for  example they never looked like scoring and the data shows that they had no shots on target.

5. Early home goal to a superior side. When a team like Man UTD score an early home goal then a team like West Ham will look to limit the damage. In the game this season West Ham had only one shot on goal and spent most of the game trying to stop Manchester United from adding to the goal scored by Van Persie after 1 minute.

There are in running factors that will increase goal expectation during a game.

1. An early away goal is known to increase goal expectation for the home side so very welcome if you do back BTTS YES.

2. Light showers have the ability to make the ball move faster and allows for quicker circulation of possession.

3. A red card to the superior side allowing for increased expectation of a goal to the inferior side.

4. The ability of a team such as Manchester United and Everton to “fightback” when conceding the first goal

 

If we look at the data for Arsenal at home in the last 4 completed seasons they have an average of 50% BTTS YES so just to break even you would need to take a price of EVENS and against Manchester City the price was 1.53 so I am hoping that you can build a picture that in this game the price was terrible value even if the bet won.

Everton may have had BTTS YES in sixteen of their last 18 games but there is no evidence to suggest more goals are being scored in the EPL and that the distribution of goals is evenly balanced.

If you look at the graphs you will see in the last four completed seasons the price that you needed to have taken just to break even.

My conclusion is simple which is that BTTS YES is an invention by the bookmakers as they make money from it, They have cut prices as there has been an increased interest and their marketing has worked as well as the fact that advisory(fee charging) sites and free sites have promoted the BTTS as well. Bookmakers have cut prices to increase their margin and not because they are losing money on the BTTS bets. If a bookmaker receives many more bets on an outcome then they have to cut the price as they would like a balanced book. A bookmaker does not gamble and if 10 000 people back BTTS YES in the Arsenal v Manchester City game then they will reduce their liability by backing BTTS YES as well or inducing people to back BTTS NO by increasing the price to give a more balanced book.

People are known to conform and this may explain why the majority of people lose when betting and I think the figure is 95% and I am aware that bookmakers expect clients to lose 11% of their volume of bets so if over your life time you bet £50 000 they look for you to lose around £5500 with many people losing rather more.

Personally I would not be in a hurry to be like Dave or Ray and I advise you to do your own research before you “trigger” a bet. Do not assume that your advisory service has done all the data analysis although I acknowledge that there are some free tipping services and advisory services that offer a level of service that is to a very high standard but if they do not post their profit and loss on their website for this season then I personally would be concerned about their ability to produce long term profits. If you consider joining a service then ask them to supply you with their bets for the season and the profit and loss to get an indication of the style of bets and the bottom line which is will they make you long term profits?

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“We’ll score when we want… we’re Man Utd…. but not two before half time”

Wigan v WBA

Given the two side’s respective home and away records, I’m more than happy to take on Wigan.

  • Wigan one won game at home this season, back in August against QPR.
  • WBA won six away games this season,
  • WBA only lost 2 of last 8 away games, winning four of those

5 point WBA plus +0.25 Asian Handicap @ 7/10 with 188bet
3 points WBA Drawn no bet @ 1/1 with Coral / Ladbrokes / Paddy Power


Wolves v Man Utd

Since the sacking of Mick McCarthy Wolves have been quite frankly awful, the 2-2 draw at Newcastle already feels like a long way away whilst Man Utd will surely now be fully focused on the league after their exit from the Europa League. We missed the 2nd half goals last week but I think the best way to get on United is to back 1-0 at Half time.

  • 8 of 14 United away games they have been leading 1-0 at Half time
  • United been ahead at Half time 10 of 14 away games

5 points United 1-0 at Half time @ 13/5 with Coral
3 points United Half Time / Full Time @ 10/11 General

Bets March 10th/11th

I’ve highlighted five selections for you this week from the SimpleSoccerStats console. These are in general confidence below. Take a look and if you see anything you like as well please get in touch or post on the twitter or facebook pages. 

1. Man Utd v WBA

I expect goals in this match with WBA free scoring away from home. I think the best angle to side with the goals rather than the 4/7 on Over 2.5 is to look at the 2nd half goals market.  I’ll outline

  • WBA scored in 6 of last 7 away games, blank was 1-0 at Tottenham,
  • WBA scored 13 goals in their last 6 away games
  • United scored at least twice in last 6 home games, 18 in total.
  • United 2nd halves at home have featured 2 goals or more on 10 of the 13 games.

Looking at the last 6 games respectively you can see their 2nd half results. Rather than risk backing United who have won 5 of the last 6 2nd halves, we’ll play the Over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half, which would have landed 5 of 6 for both team in their current form.

United 2nd half home results

Total Goals

WBA 2nd half away results

Total Goals

2-1

3

0-4

4

1-0

1

1-1

2

2-0

2

1-1

2

2-2

4

1-0

1

3-0

3

1-1

2

2-1

3

1-2

3

Average

2.67

Average

2.33


(United listed 1st)                         (WBA listed 2nd)

–          5 points over 1.5 second half goals @ 10/11 with Coral

2. Wolves v Blackburn

  • Been 3 goals or more in last 11 Wolves home games
  • Both teams have scored in 9 of the last 10 Wolves home games and 12 of the last 12 Blackburn away games
  • 24 goals in last 6 Wolves home matches
  • 23 goals in last 6 Blackburn away matches
  • Scores a whopping 20/24 using BTS criteria (see last week’s post)

 

–          2 points over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 with Stan James

–          2 points both teams to score @ 8/13 General

–          0.5 point Blackburn 3-2 @ 28/1 General

3. Norwich v Wigan

Statistics wise, this doesn’t look at great overs game, but I think you have to look at Norwich home record in more detail. Against top half opposition they’ve played seven games and scored in five of those but against lower half opposition they average 2 goals a game and those games average more goals.

 

  • Over 2.5 goals in last 8 Wigan away games
  • Norwich scored in 10 of their 13 home games
  • Wigan scored in 6 of their last 8 away games
  • Scores a 16/24 using BTS criteria (see last week’s post)

 

 

Norwich Home record

Score v Top Half teams

Norwich goals

Goals in Game

Score v Bottom half teams

Norwich goals

Goals in Game

1-2

1

3

2-0

2

2

0-0

0

0

2-1

2

3

1-1

1

2

3-3

3

6

0-2

0

2

3-1

3

4

4-2

4

6

2-1

2

3

1-2

1

3

0-1

0

1

1-1

1

2

 

 

 

Average

1.14

2.57

Average

2.00

3.17

 

–          2 points over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 General

–          2 points both teams to score @ 8/11 with bet365 and Skybet

4. Coventry v Birmingham

  • Last 3 Birmingham games scored 13 goals
  • Coventry only failed to scored once at home all season, scored 15 of 16 games
  • Both teams scored in 4 of 6 Coventry home games and 4 of 6 Birmingham away games
  • Scores a 16/24 using BTS criteria (see last week’s post)

 

–          3 points Both teams to score @ 10/11 with Coral

 

5. Peterborough v Blackpool

Peterborough have lost their goal potency recently but against Blackpool who cannot keep a clean sheet away from home, I’d expect plenty of goals in this one.

  • Last 8 Blackpool away games featured over 2.5 goals
  • Last 4 Peterborough away games over 2.5 goals
  • Blackpool haven’t kept a clean sheet in last 10 away games

–          3 points over 2.5 goals @ 4/6 General

–          1 point Accumulator on all five games highlighted @ roughly 14/1 Stan James

As a side note, it’s also worth reading the bettingzone preview of the football leagues games. They’ve picked out Carlisle again but I don’t fancy them as much against Bury as they are more of a threat and the price isn’t as good as highlighted mid week.

New poster

A good contact is going to post additionally on this blog looking at matches. This is very close to being late so I’ll post this and will keep track of this all. I hope it is useful.

Derby v Blackpool

There’s been a big move on Blackpool this afternoon after opening up at 8/5 they are now a bet price of 11/8.

  • Both teams have scored in all 9 of Blackpool’s last 9 games (home and away) so the over 2.5 goals in an attractive bet. I prefer this to both teams to score as
  • Derby failed to score against Leicester and Reading in their last two run outs at home.
  • Blackpool have won their last three away games 3-1
  • 11 of last 12 Blackpool away games have had O2.5 goals

3 points over 2.5 goals – 10/11 coral
1 point Blackpool 3-1 – 22/1 ladbrokes

 

Carlisle v Rochdale

Carlisle have an excellent home record, where as Rochdale are very weak away from home, 8th v 23rd in the table.

  • Carlisle haven’t lost at home since 10th September,  12  games unbeaten at home
  • Rochdale’s last victory away from Spotland came 9 games ago, a 1-0 win over Preston
  • In the last 8 away games, Rochdale have scored one goal, with one 1-1 and three 0-0.

3 points Carlisle -0.25 on Asian Handicap at 1.78 with 188bet

 

MK Dons v Yeovil

  • MK Dons home games average 3.1 goals whilst Yeovil away games average 2.8 goals
  • The 8 home and away games for Yeovil have seen both teams score
  • Yeovil have scored 8 goals in their last 4 away games
  • MK Dons scored 9 goals in their last 4 home games

2 points Both teams to score – 5/6 coral

 

Swindon v Dag and Red

Swindon have an amazing home record winning their last 8 home games. Swindon’s away record is poor, only one away win in their last 14 away games. Rather than back Swindon at 2/5 there is some value on the correct score market.

  • Four of Swindon’s last 8 home wins have finished 2-0

1 point Swindon 2-0 – 11/2 with Coral