WC2014 day 26 – The morning after

Brazil are without Neymar and Thiago Silva and they are their two most important players. Last match Luis Gustavo was suspended but his loss was not an issue at all but this game is completely different. Maybe losing Neymar will mean the forwards take on more responsibility and step up but the problem has been the forwards have been poor so far. Hulk, Fred and Oscar have had plenty of playing time and have managed just 2 goals between them in 5 matches. David Luiz has scored as many goals as them. Thiago Silva is one of the best, or possibly the best, centre back in the world and a fantastic leader, organises the team and provides stability at the back. Replacing him with Dante is going to be very tough and they will look wobbly and nervous. Julio Cesar does not inspire that much confidence either and you could easily see them go a couple of goals behind due to dodgy errors.

The Germans have played well all tournament, aside from a period against Algeria and Ghana. They will punish any mistakes and probably have a fair amount of the ball. This Brazil team does not dominate possession as they have done in the past. A lot depends on the line-ups today as Big Phil probably needs to do some major re-thinking to get the best out of the team. Marcelo and Alves are both very good attackers and the team will need them more than ever. If they are stuck at the back defending one on one against one of the German wide players it is going to be a long day for them. Löw has had some excellent German teams and not done enough with them and again in this world cup seems to be changing his side too much. Bring in Klose against France did not work and if he goes with a more fluid forward line here I can see them winning quite easily.

Yesterdays results


4/24 :: -10.4

Todays bets

08.07.2014 – Brazil v Germany – DRAW @ 3.24 with Pinnacle

WC2014 day 25 – The morning after

Keep picking the wrong draws.


Yesterdays results

05.07.2014 – Belgium v Argentina – DRAW @ 3.42 with Pinnacle LOST -1

4/24 :: -10.4

Todays bets

7 Jul, 14 | Posted in: World Cup | Comments Closed

WC2014 day 23 – The morning after

Yesterdays results

01.07.2014 – France v Germany – DRAW @ 3.23 with Pinnacle |LOST| -1

4/23 :: -9.4

Todays bets
05.07.2014 – Belgium v Argentina – DRAW @ 3.42 with Pinnacle

WC2014 day 22 – The morning after

It’s back and about time. Not sure how next week will be with 3 whole days off! Excellent matchups in this round and Brazil v Colombia the pick for me. Loved this tweet from @benjaminpugsley showing how much time Colombia have been ahead in the tournament and that is the key here as they have not been stuck in draws when they need to break the deadlock or been behind. If Colombia do go ahead and we get into the second half I expect Brazil to score as Colombia defend very deep and as Brazil’s team is so lopsided with attackers it will suit them perfectly.

Lots of extra time in the first round and I saw the following tweet from @SportingbetMark.


Sporting Bet Mark


I had a dig around the results and went back to 1986 as in 1982 they had some silly double group system. I excluded finals and 3rd place playoffs as there is no game after and that leaves 32 matches with 32 teams progressing. The topline stat from this is that just 11 of the teams who played extra time (not just penalties) progressed and as 4 of the matches featured teams that had both come through extra time removing those we have just 7 of 24 teams that played extra time won their next match. It is true that the weaker teams are more likely to feature in extra time but that is still a strong stat.

The record is poor mainly due to teams going to penalty shootouts with just 5/19 progressing and again 2 of those matches featured teams that both came through via penalties so just 3/15 countries who progressed via a penalty shootout won their next match. Doesn’t look good for Brazil or Costa Rica.

Interestingly teams that won through via a penalty shootout have not gone into extra time the following game as 16/19 were decided within 90 mins and  just 3 went to extra time. Contrast that with teams that won through in extra time and in 11 of those 13 matches went to extra time again and 8 of them went on to penalties.

Is there something physically draining about the penalty shootout? Mentally does it weigh on your mind in the next match? The 19 teams who went through via a penalty shootout scored just 11 goals in their next match, whereas the extra time winners scored 12 goals in 13 games.

 All the matches in full are shown below


Yesterdays results


4/22 :: -8.4

Todays bets
01.07.2014 – France v Germany – DRAW @ 3.23 with Pinnacle


2010R16: USA 1-2 GhanaGhanaL Ghana 1-1 UruguayYesYes
2006R16: Argentina 2-1 MexicoArgentinaL Argentina 1-1 GermanyYesYes
2006SF: Germany 0-2 ItalyItalyW Italy 1-1 FranceYesYes
2002R16: Sweden 1-2 SenegalSenegalL Senegal 0-1 TurkeyYes
2002R16: Korea Republic 2-1 ItalyKorea RepublicW Korea Republic 0-0 SpainYesYes
2002QF: Senegal 0-1 TurkeyTurkeyL Turkey 0-1 Brazil
1998R16: France 1-0 ParaguayFranceW France 0-0 ItalyYesYes
1994R16: Nigeria 1-2 ItalyItalyW Italy 2-1 Spain
1990R16: Cameroon 2-1 ColombiaCameroonL Cameroon 2-3 EnglandYes
1990R16: Spain 1-2 YugoslaviaYugoslaviaL Yugoslavia 0-0 ArgentinaYesYes
1990R16: England 1-0 BelgiumEnglandW England 3-2 CameroonYes
1990QF: England 3-2 CameroonEnglandL England 1-1 GermanyYesYes
1986R16: Soviet Union 3-4 BelgiumBelgiumW Belgium 1-1 SpainYesYes
2010R16: Paraguay 0-0 JapanParaguayL Paraguay 0-1 Spain
2010QF: Uruguay 1-1 GhanaUruguayL Uruguay 2-3 Netherlands
2006R16: Switzerland 0-0 UkraineUkraineL Ukraine 0-3 Italy
2006QF: Germany 1-1 ArgentinaGermanyL Germany 0-2 ItalyYes
2006QF: England 0-0 PortugalPortugalL Portugal 0-1 France
2002R16: Spain 1-1 Republic of IrelandSpainL Spain 0-0 Republic of IrelandYesYes
2002QF: Spain 0-0 Korea RepublicKorea RepublicL Korea Republic 0-1 Germany
1998R16: Argentina 2-2 EnglandArgentinaL Argentina 1-2 Netherlands
1998QF: Italy 0-0 FranceFranceW France 2-1 Croatia
1998SF: Brazil 1-1 NetherlandsBrazilL Brazil 0-3 France
1994R16: Mexico 1-1 BulgariaBulgariaW Bulgaria 2-1 Germany
1994QF: Romania 2-2 SwedenSwedenL Sweden 0-1 Brazil
1990R16: Republic of Ireland 0-0 RomaniaRepublic of IrelandL Republic of Ireland 0-1 Italy
1990QF: Yugoslavia 0-0 ArgentinaArgentinaW Argentina 1-1 ItalyYesYes
1990SF: Italy 1-1 ArgentinaArgentinaL Argentina 0-1 Germany
1990SF: Germany 1-1 EnglandGermanyW Germany 1-0 Argentina
1986QF: Brazil 1-1 FranceFranceL France 0-2 Germany
1986QF: Germany 0-0 MexicoGermanyW Germany 2-0 France
1986QF: Spain 1-1 BelgiumBelgiumL Belgium 0-2 Argentina

WC2014 day 20 – The morning after

A couple of days off. Too many matches went to extra time and teams suddenly came alive in it. Will post on some extra time stats before Friday’s games.

Yesterdays results
01.07.2014 – Belgium v USA – DRAW @ 3.36 with Pinnacle WON +2.36
4/22 :: -8.4

Todays bets

2 Jul, 14 | Posted in: World Cup | Comments Closed