SSS Tips
Be nice if we could break the 20 point barrier again this weekend and not sink back below it! I’ve tried to concentrate more in England this weekend but there were a few bets elsewhere I really liked.
Last weekend I called the Sevilla v Atletico Madrid game wrongly and the price on Sevilla had collapsed pre-game so it was a big surprise. Both teams have big games this weekend and with 3rd place Villareal hosting Atletico and Sevilla travelling to Real Madrid it could make for an interesting weekend. It could be that Villareal find themselves 3 points off the top on Sunday night.
Normally I’ll kick off with a corner bet but the odds aren’t out for these yet so I’ll look at them later. Rather than hold all the bets off till I’ve checked them I’ll just add it later.
A bit of a novelty bet.
Cheltenham v Northampton (eng lge 1 – sat 3pm local time) / Notts Country v Mansfield (eng lge 1 – sat 3pm local time)
A one-off bet here and the first time I will use a ¼point bet as it’s actually 4x¼ point bets on correct scores. I can’t go into too much detail as it’s 2 games but I think covering 2 scores in each game with 4 correct score doubles is worth a small risk.Cheltenham love to score 1 goal doing it in 16/20 home games so 1-0 and 1-1 are my preferred options here. The Notts Country games is a big battle at the bottom and neither team score that many but Mansfield have put together a decent run away from home and so 1-1 and 1-2 look worth covering. Bet365 give the best odds and if they came in we would make at least 11 points.
++ 4 x Correct Score doubles – Chelt 1-0, 1-1 / Notts Co 1-1, 2-1 @ 7.5, 7 / 7, 11 on Bet365 (4 x ¼pt = 1pt)
The more traditional fare.
Tottenham v Newcastle (prem – sun 3pm local time)
Newcastle beat Fulham last weekend to record their first league win since 15th December. In the 13 matches between the wins they only managed to draw at home to Derby, Bolton and Middlesboro and draw away at Birmingham. They have lost 10 of the 15 away games this season and lost 6 of the last 7. Taking the last 10 away games they have manages to score just 5 goals and shipped 24 goals. With a record like that travelling to White Hart Land should mean goals as no-one has scored more goals than Spurs at home this season, no-one has conceded more either but since Ramos took over at the end of October their record has been very strong at home. They have played 10 home games with Ramos at the helm and won 7, drawn against Man Utd and Chelsea and lost to Birmingham in his second game. They have scored an amazing 32 goals in those 10 games and conceded 14 showing they like a decent margin of victory. After taking all that in it looks like Spurs will win by more than the odd goal so it’s a case of finding the best bet. There are markets like Spurs to score 3 or more but it’s all very tricky so have decide a split stake bet.
++ Winning Margin – Tottenham to win by 2 or more goals @ 3.1 on Bet365 (½pt)
++ Asian Handicap – Tottenham -0.5, -1 @ 1.8 on Bet365 (½pt)
The more traditional bets.
Chester v Stockport (eng lge 2 – sat 3pm local time)
On a basic level Chester have a home record of W5 D3 L12 and Stockport away are W12 D4 L4 so it looks like a Stockport win 24/40 (60%) so odds of 1.67 but Stockport can be backed at above evens. They have lost their club captain to Swansea but bought in someone else on loan and BBC report Chester have injury problems. Stockport are expected to bring 2,000 fans to this game and they are on form at the moment taking 23 from a possible 30 points in the last 10 games, whereas Chester have managed just 6 of a possible 30. At home only Mansfield are worse than Chester and they have lost 8 of the last 9 games. Stockport have lost just once in the past 17 games and away from home have won 8 and drawn 1 of the last 9 games. The overall picture favours Stockport and recent form makes them seem better than the price on offer.
++ Win Market – Stockport @ 2.1 on generally (1pt)
Cowdenbeath v Brechin (scots two – sat 3pm local time)
A rare trip up North to Scotland for this bet but it stood out on the AH console. In the last 10 games Brechin have gained as many points as runaway league leaders RossCounty whereas Cowdenbeath have lost 8 of their 10. At home Cowdenbeath have lost 7 of the last 8 games conceding 23 goals scoring just 10. Brechin on the other hand went the first 8 away games of the season without a win only managing 3 of a possible 24 points. Not sure what they found under the Christmas tree but since boxing day have won 5 and drawn to of the 7 away games gaining 17 of the 21 points on offer. The last away game was a 0-0 draw with the league leaders and that was the first time in that 7 game period they have not scored at least 2 goals.
++ Win Market – Brechin @ 2.1 on Tote/Expekt/Betfred (1pt)
4 points bet in total with a possible extra to come with the corners.
Spinner Rinse
A mixture of odds here with Chelsea to beat Middlesboro, Spurs to beat Newcastle (Both Prem), Hamburg to Beat Bielefeld (Germany), Napoli to beat Parma (Italy) and Deportivo La Coruña (Spain).
++ Five-fold accumulator @ 10.84 on VCBet
NOTES
Matches will be updated as normal on Monday.