Champions League: Matchday 3

The story so far – 8 bets, 4 wins, 8pts staked, +2.00pts

Bayern Munich have to be opposed based on historical results but this is tricky as they are much stronger now than they were previously. There have not been many meetings between Italian and German teams in the last few years but this could be the season that the Italian league starts to improve again in Europe. Athletic Bilbao are not performing too well at home but maybe they have a decent chance at Porto. Not too far to travel for them either.

On Wednesday Juventus look good value and have to take Liverpool against Madrid as Spanish teams have done very poorly in the group stages in England. Finally going with Monaco again at home against Benfica this time.


Roma v Bayern Munich – Roma +0.5 @ 2.00 with Bet365

Porto v Athletic Bilbao – Athletic Bilbao @ 5.75 with Bet Victor (6.0 is around with some bookmakers)

Olympiakos v Juventus – Juventus @ 2.05 with Bet365

Liverpool v Real Madrid – Liverpool +0.75 @ 1.82 with Bet365

Monaco v Benfica – Monaco @ 2.45 with Bet365


WC2014 day 22 – The morning after

It’s back and about time. Not sure how next week will be with 3 whole days off! Excellent matchups in this round and Brazil v Colombia the pick for me. Loved this tweet from @benjaminpugsley showing how much time Colombia have been ahead in the tournament and that is the key here as they have not been stuck in draws when they need to break the deadlock or been behind. If Colombia do go ahead and we get into the second half I expect Brazil to score as Colombia defend very deep and as Brazil’s team is so lopsided with attackers it will suit them perfectly.

Lots of extra time in the first round and I saw the following tweet from @SportingbetMark.


Sporting Bet Mark


I had a dig around the results and went back to 1986 as in 1982 they had some silly double group system. I excluded finals and 3rd place playoffs as there is no game after and that leaves 32 matches with 32 teams progressing. The topline stat from this is that just 11 of the teams who played extra time (not just penalties) progressed and as 4 of the matches featured teams that had both come through extra time removing those we have just 7 of 24 teams that played extra time won their next match. It is true that the weaker teams are more likely to feature in extra time but that is still a strong stat.

The record is poor mainly due to teams going to penalty shootouts with just 5/19 progressing and again 2 of those matches featured teams that both came through via penalties so just 3/15 countries who progressed via a penalty shootout won their next match. Doesn’t look good for Brazil or Costa Rica.

Interestingly teams that won through via a penalty shootout have not gone into extra time the following game as 16/19 were decided within 90 mins and  just 3 went to extra time. Contrast that with teams that won through in extra time and in 11 of those 13 matches went to extra time again and 8 of them went on to penalties.

Is there something physically draining about the penalty shootout? Mentally does it weigh on your mind in the next match? The 19 teams who went through via a penalty shootout scored just 11 goals in their next match, whereas the extra time winners scored 12 goals in 13 games.

 All the matches in full are shown below


Yesterdays results


4/22 :: -8.4

Todays bets
01.07.2014 – France v Germany – DRAW @ 3.23 with Pinnacle


2010R16: USA 1-2 GhanaGhanaL Ghana 1-1 UruguayYesYes
2006R16: Argentina 2-1 MexicoArgentinaL Argentina 1-1 GermanyYesYes
2006SF: Germany 0-2 ItalyItalyW Italy 1-1 FranceYesYes
2002R16: Sweden 1-2 SenegalSenegalL Senegal 0-1 TurkeyYes
2002R16: Korea Republic 2-1 ItalyKorea RepublicW Korea Republic 0-0 SpainYesYes
2002QF: Senegal 0-1 TurkeyTurkeyL Turkey 0-1 Brazil
1998R16: France 1-0 ParaguayFranceW France 0-0 ItalyYesYes
1994R16: Nigeria 1-2 ItalyItalyW Italy 2-1 Spain
1990R16: Cameroon 2-1 ColombiaCameroonL Cameroon 2-3 EnglandYes
1990R16: Spain 1-2 YugoslaviaYugoslaviaL Yugoslavia 0-0 ArgentinaYesYes
1990R16: England 1-0 BelgiumEnglandW England 3-2 CameroonYes
1990QF: England 3-2 CameroonEnglandL England 1-1 GermanyYesYes
1986R16: Soviet Union 3-4 BelgiumBelgiumW Belgium 1-1 SpainYesYes
2010R16: Paraguay 0-0 JapanParaguayL Paraguay 0-1 Spain
2010QF: Uruguay 1-1 GhanaUruguayL Uruguay 2-3 Netherlands
2006R16: Switzerland 0-0 UkraineUkraineL Ukraine 0-3 Italy
2006QF: Germany 1-1 ArgentinaGermanyL Germany 0-2 ItalyYes
2006QF: England 0-0 PortugalPortugalL Portugal 0-1 France
2002R16: Spain 1-1 Republic of IrelandSpainL Spain 0-0 Republic of IrelandYesYes
2002QF: Spain 0-0 Korea RepublicKorea RepublicL Korea Republic 0-1 Germany
1998R16: Argentina 2-2 EnglandArgentinaL Argentina 1-2 Netherlands
1998QF: Italy 0-0 FranceFranceW France 2-1 Croatia
1998SF: Brazil 1-1 NetherlandsBrazilL Brazil 0-3 France
1994R16: Mexico 1-1 BulgariaBulgariaW Bulgaria 2-1 Germany
1994QF: Romania 2-2 SwedenSwedenL Sweden 0-1 Brazil
1990R16: Republic of Ireland 0-0 RomaniaRepublic of IrelandL Republic of Ireland 0-1 Italy
1990QF: Yugoslavia 0-0 ArgentinaArgentinaW Argentina 1-1 ItalyYesYes
1990SF: Italy 1-1 ArgentinaArgentinaL Argentina 0-1 Germany
1990SF: Germany 1-1 EnglandGermanyW Germany 1-0 Argentina
1986QF: Brazil 1-1 FranceFranceL France 0-2 Germany
1986QF: Germany 0-0 MexicoGermanyW Germany 2-0 France
1986QF: Spain 1-1 BelgiumBelgiumL Belgium 0-2 Argentina

World cup first game winners

A request was made by someone on Twitter which teams had won their first games and how many points they got in the group. It was pretty tricky to write the queries to get this from the database but always up for a challenge and a push.

In the table below you can see every team that won their opening match and their final group stage points and the phase that they got knocked out in.


YearTeamFirst matchGroup pointsLast match
2010Argentinabt Nigeria 1-09Quarter-finals
2010Korea Republicbt Greece 2-04Round of 16
2010Sloveniabt Algeria 1-04Group matches
2010Germanybt Australia 4-06Third place
2010Ghanabt Serbia and Montenegro 1-04Quarter-finals
2010Netherlandsbt Denmark 2-09Final
2010Japanbt Cameroon 1-06Round of 16
2010Brazilbt Korea DPR 2-17Quarter-finals
2010Chilebt Honduras 1-06Round of 16
2010Switzerlandbt Spain 1-04Group matches
2006Germanybt Costa Rica 4-29Third place
2006Ecuadorbt Poland 2-06Round of 16
2006Englandbt Paraguay 1-07Quarter-finals
2006Argentinabt Ivory Coast 2-17Quarter-finals
2006Netherlandsbt Serbia and Montenegro 1-07Round of 16
2006Mexicobt Iran 3-14Round of 16
2006Portugalbt Angola 1-09Third place
2006Italybt Ghana 2-07Final
2006Czech Republicbt USA 3-03Group matches
2006Brazilbt Croatia 1-09Quarter-finals
2006Australiabt Japan 3-14Round of 16
2006Korea Republicbt Togo 2-14Group matches
2006Spainbt Ukraine 4-09Round of 16
2002Senegalbt France 1-05Quarter-finals
2002Denmarkbt Uruguay 2-17Round of 16
2002Spainbt Slovenia 3-19Quarter-finals
2002Brazilbt Turkey 2-19Final
2002Costa Ricabt China PR 2-04Group matches
2002Korea Republicbt Poland 2-07Third place
2002USAbt Portugal 3-24Quarter-finals
2002Germanybt Saudi Arabia 8-07Final
2002Argentinabt Nigeria 1-04Group matches
2002Mexicobt Croatia 1-07Round of 16
2002Italybt Ecuador 2-04Round of 16
2002Russiabt Tunisia 2-03Group matches
1998Brazilbt Scotland 2-16Final
1998Denmarkbt Saudi Arabia 1-04Quarter-finals
1998Francebt South Africa 3-09Final
1998Nigeriabt Spain 3-26Round of 16
1998Mexicobt Korea Republic 3-15Round of 16
1998Yugoslaviabt Iran 1-07Round of 16
1998Germanybt USA 2-07Quarter-finals
1998Romaniabt Colombia 1-07Round of 16
1998Englandbt Tunisia 2-06Round of 16
1998Croatiabt Jamaica 3-16Third place
1998Argentinabt Japan 1-09Quarter-finals

What difference does the heat make in Brazilian league matches?

Everyone keeps banging on about the heat in Brazil but isn’t it always hot? Spain 1982 would have been roasting in June. I remember running home from school to catch the game at 4:15pm and that would have been 5:15pm in Spain and damn hot. Visit Madrid in July and you’ll get an idea of how hot it will be there. Down South it would have been the same as well and the Guardian has an article about one of the semi finals and they say

“Their semi-final was at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, on 8 July 1982. Kick-off was 9pm but it was a muggy night in Seville, with the temperature in the high nineties.”


So in Brazil they say the worst places temperature wise are in the North and that includes 5 venues. I looked to see if any teams from those cities played in The Brazilian Championship in 2013.
Manaus – No team
Fortaleza – No team
Natal – No team
Recife – Nautico
Salvador – Bahia and EC Vitoria

So there are 3 teams and a quick test is to look at the total goals scored when any of these teams played at home and see if they are grouped at one end of the table.

Home TeamFATotal GoalsAv. Goals
AA Ponte Preta1926452.37
Atletico MG3916552.89
Atletico Paranaense3419532.79
Coritiba FBC2919482.53
CR Vasco da Gama2623492.58
EC Vitoria3220522.74
Fluminense FC2824522.74
Portuguesa de Desportos3217492.58
Santos FC2813412.16
Sao Paulo2221432.26
League Total5483829302.45

Bahia and Vitoria are from the same city but at opposite ends of the table and Nautico are only a tiny bit above the league average so it doesn’t look like there is anything there

What about corners?

Home TeamFATotal CornersAv. Corners
AA Ponte Preta94891839.63
Atletico MG1197319210.11
Atletico Paranaense10310020310.68
Coritiba FBC11210021211.16
CR Vasco da Gama1218320410.74
EC Vitoria13310423712.47
Fluminense FC1309022011.58
Portuguesa de Desportos1259121611.37
Santos FC10910321211.16
Sao Paulo1337420710.89
League Total23321797412910.89

Bahia the lowest and Vitoria the highest and they are from the same city (Salvador).

The sample size here is small and there are many other factors that control how many goals or corners there will be, such as how both teams set out tactically and if they are pressing to score goals or just sit back and look to defend.

My real point here is we have no idea what impact the heat will have. Obviously people won’t be able to run quite so much but does that mean less goals, more goals, the same goals? Does the heat mean people are more likely to make mistakes? Will substitutes coming on around the 70 minute mark be that much fresher? I have no idea about the answers to any of these questions and have not found anyone else who does.

Win to Nil – w/end 28.02.2014

Which teams are most likely to win to nil this weekend?

DateLgeHmAwHm W2N%Am L2N%% CombinedEq. Odds
1-3Eng ConfCambridgeKidderminster6731492.04
1-3Tur SuperFenerbahceGenclerbirligi3660482.08
1-3Grk SuperXanthiLevadeiakos3362472.11
1-3Eng ConfBraintree TownHyde United5044472.13
2-3Eng PremTottenhamCardiff4646462.17
2-3Fra Lig 1Paris SGMarseille6923462.17
1-3Ita Serie ARomaInter7517462.18
1-3Eng ConfHalifaxTamworth4150462.19
2-3Eng PremSwanseaCrystal Palace3158452.24
2-3Spa PrimeraBarcelonaAlmeria5038442.26
1-3Scot PremAberdeenSt Johnstone4642442.28
2-3Tur SuperSivassporElazigspor4540432.34
2-3Grk SuperOlympiakosPanathinaikos6223422.36
1-3Scot PremCelticInverness C6223422.36
1-3Por SuperSporting LisbonSp Braga4044422.37
2-3Por SuperGil VicenteSetubal3350422.4
2-3Grk SuperPanioniosKallonis2558422.4
3-3Grk SuperPlataniasGiannina2358412.46
1-3Eng Lge 1WolvesPort Vale5325392.57
2-3Grk SuperAsteras TripolisPanthrakikos5423382.6
2-3Por SuperGuimaraesPorto4430372.69
2-3Por SuperNacionalRio Ave4033372.73
1-3Ger BundBayern MunichSchalke 04649362.75
1-3Eng ConfSouthportDartford2547362.78
1-3Fra Lig 1LorientBastia3338362.79
2-3Ita Serie AGenoaCatania3338362.79
1-3Eng ConfLutonAlfreton Town4428362.8
1-3Eng ConfWelling UnitedMacclesfield3833352.82
1-3Eng ConfBarnetWoking3535352.83
1-3Tur SuperKarabuksporGaziantepspor3040352.86
1-3Fra Lig 1NiceToulouse4623352.89
1-3Eng ChampQPRLeeds3831342.91
1-3Eng ChampNott'm ForestWigan2544342.91
1-3Eng Lge 1BradfordStevenage2938332.99
2-3NL EridvisGroningenCambuur2542333
1-3Fra Lig 1RennesGuingamp1550333.06
1-3Eng Lge 2PlymouthMorecambe2540333.08
28-2Spa PrimeraAth BilbaoGranada2342323.09
1-3Eng ChampLeicesterCharlton3133323.1
1-3Ger BundAugsburgHannover1055323.1
3-3Por SuperAroucaAcademica2044323.1
2-3Ita Serie AAtalantaChievo3331323.12
28-2Ger BundHerthaFreiburg1845323.14
1-3Fra Lig 1ReimsValenciennes1746313.18
1-3Eng ChampIpswichBirmingham2538313.2
1-3Scot PremMotherwellHearts3329313.23
1-3Eng PremHullNewcastle3131313.25
1-3Eng Lge 2Dag and RedMansfield3129303.3
1-3Eng Lge 2BurtonAccrington3525303.32
1-3Eng Lge 1CreweSwindon2535303.32
1-3Eng ChampHuddersfieldBarnsley1347303.38
Imported from Manual Input