Champions League Matchday 6

It’s the final matchday and it’s been a bad group stage

27.11 – AS Roma v Real Madrid: Draw @3.8 with several LOSE -1 (0-2)

27.11 – Juventus v Valencia: Draw @5.0 with several LOSE -1 (1-0)

28.11 – Tottenham v Inter: Draw @4.0 Generally LOSE -1 (1-0)

Summary: 4 wins from 18 / -4.975pts

With so many groups already done and dusted its an odd final round and there is only one bet so this will be a losing year. Group D would have had a bet or two but with the top 2 places decided its too risky to try and guess the lineups teams will go with. The draw in Barcelona v Tottenham is another possibility but that’s another odd game

11.12 – Liverpool v Napoli: Draw @4.5 with several.

Liverpool v Napoli looks like being a special game and Liverpool will need to be at their best to get a win at home against a team that can counter attack really well. Ajax hosting Bayern Munich is another very interesting one as a win for Ajax would see them topping the group and Bayern are not like the teams of old.

Champions League Matchday 5

Match day 5 and we have some ground to make up as just one winner last time out

06.11 – Inter v Barcelona: Draw @3.5 Generally WIN +2.5 (1-1)

06.11 – FC Porto v Lokomotiv Moscow: Away win @12.0 in several LOSE -1 (4-1)

07.11 – Lyon v Hoffenheim: Away win @3.6 in several LOSE -1 (2-2)

Summary: 4 wins from 14 / -1.975pts

Massive week again and the Liverpool, PSG and Napoli group has produced some excellent matches so far and hopeful of another on Wednesday. All 3 bets this week are on draws.

27.11 – AS Roma v Real Madrid: Draw @3.8 with several

27.11 – Juventus v Valencia: Draw @5.0 with several

28.11 – Tottenham v Inter: Draw @4.0 Generally

Champions League Matchday 4

Already at match day 4 and back into the negatives with 3 losses last week

23.10 – Hoffenheim v Lyon: Home win @2.0 Generally LOSE -1 (3-3)

24.10 – Club Brugge KV v Monaco: Away win @3.2 Generally LOSE -1 (1-1)

24.10 – Lokomotiv Moscow v FC Porto: Home win @4.33 with Several LOSE -1 (1-3)

Summary: 3 wins from 11 / -2.475pts

3 matches this week and the Lokomotiv Moscow one is a rank outsider which looks very unlikely but sometimes you have to go against what you think if the stats say so.

The Hoffenheim price seems to be coming in but not sure why that is.

It’s another big week of games with Napoli v PSG, Inter v Barca and Juventus hosting Man United.

06.11 – Inter v Barcelona: Draw @3.5 Generally

06.11 – FC Porto v Lokomotiv Moscow: Away win @12.0 in several

07.11 – Lyon v Hoffenheim: Away win @3.6 in several

Champions League Matchday 2

The Liverpool v PSG tie was the highlight of the first round of matches and really lived up to the hype. Without playing in a competitive league how can PSG ever prepare to play in matches like these, especially against teams that aggressively press them.

In terms of the bets the late goal by Liverpool stopped that being a draw but the late comeback from Inter Milan made that one a winner so swings and roundabouts.

18.09 – Inter v Tottenham: Home win @2.625 Generally WIN +1.625 (2-1)

18.09 – Liverpool v Paris SG: Draw @3.5 Generally LOSE -1 (3-2)

18.09 – Schalke v FC Porto: Home win @2.4 Generally LOSE -1 (1-1)

19.09 – Valencia v Juventus: Home win @4.75 Generally LOSE -1 (0-2)

Summary: 1 win from 4 / -1.375pts

After playing Juventus Valencia now travel to Manchester and will need some sort of result to maintain hopes of qualifying. Manchester City need a win at Hoffenheim and were helped by the other game being a draw in round 1.

The big clashes in matchday 2 are Tottenham at home to Barcelona and Napoli at home to Liverpool. Barcelona are without Umtiti which is important for them as he has made a massive difference for them and helped Pique. Spurs need something from this and have shown they are capable of big wins after beating Real Madrid 3-1 last season.

The Napoli match is interesting as Serie A is starting to look stronger in Europe and Roma took a big step last year beating Barcelona. Napoli have had a tough start to the year and beaten Lazio, AC Milan and Fiorentina already. Italian teams have done well against English teams and this is probably the best value of the bets we have laid out this matchday.

03.10 – Lokomotiv Moscow v Schalke: Away win @2.4 Generally

03.10 – Tottenham v Barcelona: Home win @3.5 with quite a few

03.10 – Napoli v Liverpool: Home win @3.5 with quite a few

03.10 – FC Porto v Galatasaray: Away win @7.5 with quite a few

Champions League Bets 2018-19 Matchday 1

Every year we have a little system in the champions league based on how teams from different countries have performed against each other. It’s a bit of data and a bit of feeling but has often done well so we’ll track it over the 6 matchdays.

18.09 – Inter v Tottenham: Home win @2.625 Generally
18.09 – Liverpool v Paris SG: Draw @3.5 Generally
18.09 – Schalke v FC Porto: Home win @2.4 Generally
19.09 – Valencia v Juventus: Home win @4.75 Generally

In the system we have gone with a draw in the big one and we didn’t expect to see Liverpool as a favourite against PSG. Would have backed Liverpool based on their form but with PSG being a bigger price surely they are the value as the game looks a bit of a coin toss with so much attacking on display.