Well it’s been a while since I checked in as I have been too busy! Far busier than a lot of the clubs in the transfer market and it seems to be rumour after rumour. Barcelona have probably been as busy as me and not sure about Hleb but buying Dani Alves was a great move and the prospect of him and Messi teaming up down the right hand side is mouth watering. Even with my dislike for Barça I am excited about seeing rip teams to shreds.

Who else? In Spain Villareal look to have strengthened very quickly and will be interesting to see how they get on in the champions league. Ronaldo to Real Madrid is a boring saga and I think Madrid need to make some transfers as their rivals have improved. Sevilla look to be the big losers with both Alves and Keita going to Barça and I will be looking to find some antepost bets against them as the season comes closer. They didn’t do much after Ramos left last season and I can’t see where improvement will come from. Myself, I am moving to Gijón in August so am ecstatic to see them back in the big time. Not too happy to see them as favourites to go straight back down!

In England nothing much seems to have happened. Arsenal swapping Nasri for Hleb is probably good business and the next few weeks should be interesting regarding Ronaldo, Kaka, Berbatov etc. I think the loss of Queroz can’t be underestimated at United and their number one signing needs to be a new coach. Big Phil has a lot to prove in my book.

No grasp on any other leagues really but I get the odd free £5 bet from Bet365 and now I am going to always put it on Inter Milan to win the champions league. Mourinho’s record is fantastic and I think he’ll do wonders there. I may advise that as a bet once I start getting more on the football.

The reason I have been so busy is that I have built a new interactive puzzle which launched today and is a mix of a crossword and sudoku so if either of those interests you then check out www.x-oku.com.

Time to start looking at some analysis for the upcoming season and I want to start with the top goalscorer market. I want to get something up in this as 3 of the top 4 in the betting (Ronaldo, Drogba and Adebayor) are linked to moves away.

Since the premier league was formed here are the winners and their stats.

Year	Golden Boot	Club	Goals	Team Position	Prev Season
1992–93	Teddy Sheringham	Notts Forest/Spurs	22	Eighth	13 (1st Div)
1993–94	Andy Cole	Newcastle United	34	Third	24 (1st Div)
1994–95	Alan Shearer	Blackburn	34	Winner	31
1995–96	Alan Shearer	Newcastle United	31	Second	34
1996–97	Alan Shearer	Newcastle United	25	Second	31
1997–98	Chris Sutton	Blackburn	18	Sixth	11
1997–98	Dion Dublin	Coventry	18	Eleventh	13
1997–98	Michael Owen	Liverpool	18	Third	1
1998–99	JF Hasselbaink	Leeds	18	Fourth	16
1998–99	Michael Owen	Liverpool	18	Seventh	18
1998–99	Dwight Yorke	Manchester United	18	Winner	12
1999–2000	Kevin Phillips	Sunderland	18	Seventh	23 (First Div)
2000–01	JF Hasselbaink	Chelsea	18	Sixth	24 (Spain)
2001–02	Thierry Henry	Arsenal	24	Winner	17
2002–03	Ruud van Nistelrooy	Manchester United	25	Winner	23
2003–04	Thierry Henry	Arsenal	30	Winner	24
2004–05	Thierry Henry	Arsenal	25	Second	30
2005–06	Thierry Henry	Arsenal	27	Fourth	25
2006–07	Didier Drogba	Chelsea	20	Second	12
2007–08	Cristiano Ronaldo	Manchester United	31	Winner	17

 

So what can we see here? In 1997-1998 and 1998-1999 the top goalscorer was won with 18 goals and was shared three ways which slightly distorts the results. Alan Shearer (begrudgingly) and Henry deserve respect for winning it 3 teams consecutively!

No player has come from abroad and won it, aside from Hasselbaink but he had played in it before. 3 times players from the first division (championship) have come up and won it but none of the promoted teams have a potent striker.

I think the important thing to look at is the amount of goals a striker scored the season before. Michael Owen won a share of the prize in his first full season but aside from that every player had scored at least 11 goals the season before. If we drop the years when there was a 3 way tie in 12/14 cases the striker had scored at least 17 goals the season before. Sheringham and Drogba are the only two not to do this and I would argue that Sheringham was a unique player and had an out of the world start to 92/93 when he went to Man Utd. So if we look at strikers who scored at least 17 goals last season we have Ronaldo (31), Adebayor, Torres (both 24) and Santa Cruz (19). Ronaldo will miss part of the season and may even still go to Madrid as it looks like he wants to. If they can ship Robinho to Chelsea they may bid big for him. Without Derby in the Premiership Adebayor might not be as potent as he scored 6 goals against them and if Van Persie is less of a sicknote he probably won’t have to play as many games. Even with this he might get transferred and if he doesn’t I doubt his price will change much so may as well wait. Torres is the favourite and has no value so we are left with Santa Cruz. If Adebayor does go he may end up at Arsenal and at the price I think he looks very good value.

I bet on Van Persie last season and if he can avoid injury problems he will be prolific but that’s a big if. Michael Owen is another unfortunate injury victim as if he has a decent run he can’t help but score. 22/1 to be the first player to score a hatrick in the season on Paddy Power looks an interesting novelty bet. Man Utd may end up with Tevez, Rooney, Ronaldo and Berbatov and it might be asking a bit much for one of them to do it.

The other player who interests me is John Carew. He scored 13 goals last season but missed a large chunk through injury and has had the time to acclimatise to the English game. 10 of his goals came in the new year. I’d be very happy as a Villa supporter with Marton O’Neill as my manager and I think they will have another good season.

I could go on and on but the two bets I want to advise are Carew and Santa Cruz. Santa Cruz is currently a best priced 28/1 and Carew at 66/1 although they are much better on Betfair. As the markets are not properly formed I think it might be prudent to wait a short while. I just wanted to get this analysis out in the open and the blog back in action.

I am continuing with the new development for the site and hope to have some positive changes for the start of the season.