Last season I had a good look at this market and tipped Adebayor and Carew. It was money down the pan but the research I did last year was easy to update and I now have one more year to base my analysis on. I have looked back over the last 10 years of the premiership and who finished 1st to 4th in terms of top goalscorer as that is how the bookies pay out.

There are some strong stats namely:
In the 1999/2000 season Kevin Phillips won this and in the 9 years since then it has been won by a player from the big 4.

If we look at positions 1-4 in the last 5 years only the following have been out of the big 4:
08/09 Robinho equal 4th with 15
07/08 Santa Cruz 4th with 19
06/07 McCarthy 2nd with 18/Viduka 4th with 14
05/06 Bent 3rd with 18/Keane equal 4th with 16
04/05 Johnson 2nd with 21
So in 23 player who finished 1-4 (including ties) 7 were from out of the big 4.

The winner scored at least 11 goals the season before

Let’s go through the big 4

Man United
Rooney 12/1 – Owen 12/1 – Berbatov 25/1
I can see a lot of value in Berbatov. He scored 9 in 31 games last season for United and for Spurs managed tallies of 15 and 12. In the last 3 seasons in the Bundesliga before he arrived at Spurs he scored 21, 20 and 16 so he has proved he can score. 15 odd goals is probably not beyond him and I would have him over Rooney who has played 7 full premier league seasons and who’s highest marks are 16 and 14. Owen has scored 157 goals in 321 league games in his career and is consistent. Doubts are his injuries and also I think he will be used less than the other two.

Liverpool
Torres 4/1 – Gerrard 20/1 – Kuyt 40/1
Let’s ignore Kuyt. Like Kezman and Alfonso Alves he has proved scoring goals in Holland means bugger all in a big league. After Torres at 4/1 the next player is Drogba at 11/1 and there’s no value in Torres. I can’t see how Liverpool will score more goals this season and they see to be weaker. Torres has had some injuries as well and his 14 goals last season would only have got him a top 4 finish (equal it was) in 2 of the past 10 seasons. I watched the Racing Post video the other day and one of the guys on there talked on Gerrard being more of a second striker than a midfielder and I am inclined to agree but he scored 16 last season but just 11 and then 7 the season before that so he has to prove he can score.

Chelsea
Drogba 12/1 – Anelka 14/1 – Lampard 33/1
In 5 seasons Drogba has scored 10, 12, 20, 8 and 5 league goals and this season is off the the African Nations Cup. Second favourite? Hmmmmmmm. I like Anelka in this market. You may not like the kind of person the media have told us he is but he has always scored goals. 103 goals in 242 Premier League games and 19, 11 and 11 in the last 3 seasons. He’s been at some dodgy clubs in England as well but has had seasons of 17 (Arsenal), 16 (Man City) and 19 (Chelsea). With Drogba going to the ANC he’s guaranteed starts and one thing about him is he is not injury prone. Appearances of 35, 32, 35, 33 (Man City + Fenerbahce), 32 and 38 show this. I think he must get 16+ goals at Chelsea and it could be a lot more. He has the naffest celebration in the whole of football but I will be hoping to see it a lot this season.

Arsenal
Van Persie 16/1 – Arshavin 28/1 – Eduardo 33/1 – Bentfoot 66/1
For me this is Arsenal’s problem. There are too many of them and I think Wenger will chop and change a lot. I think Arshavin will prove how good he is this season and score some amazing goals but he will be played as the second striker with 1 of the other 3 ahead of him and lots of substitutions between the 3.

For what it’s worth in terms of the big 4 I think United can’t replace Ronaldo and haven’t. It was goals, assists and the reputation they have lost and unless the strikers are on fire I can’t see them doing it again. Liverpool seem to have got weaker and Chelsea were already old and have got one year older. They also lose more than anyone to the ANC. That leaves Arsenal and as I said above Arshavin could be huge. Last season Eduardo and Rosicky were hugely missed and I doubt anyone would deny Fabregas is their best player and he missed a huge chunk as well. With those players back, and even with what they have lost, I see them being by far the most likely to improve.

The Rest
Well there has to be value elsewhere. I think Man City will do very well as much as people want them to fail. Money does buy success as Blackburn proved long ago and then so did Chelsea. They just have too many forwards to have anyone of value. Everton don’t score enough goals and Villa will have Carew, Heskey and Agbonhalor sharing too few games. The stats earlier indicate at least 1 of the top 4 will be outside the big 4 and possibly it could be 2 so who might be the one. My selection would be

Darren Bent (40/1)
98 goals in 250 league games is no mean feat. His season for Spurs in 07/08 was very poor with only 6 goals but he managed 12 last season and before he was at Spurs he scored 13, 18, 20 and 16 (Championship). He could play every game and has proven Premier League form. Spurs have had a terrible time the last few seasons and he has been slated so has done reasonably well in my book.

If Spurs didn’t have 4 strikers I would have been all over Pavlyuchenko at 100/1.

My bets for this season

Berbatov 25/1 Coral/Blue Sq/VC (1pt e/w)
Anelka 14/1 Paddy Power (2pt e/w)
Bent 40/1 Bet365/VC Bet/SJ/Skybet/Coral/Hills (1pt e/w)