SSS Tips
Less choice this weekend and will be even less next time round as it’s the last round of games in the English leagues except for the Premier.
Last weekend was a good one and hopefully we can add a few more points this weekend and until the end of the season and get past that 20 point barrier.
Most of the main leagues are close to being decided this weekend but still some interesting games like the Milan derby.
Last week I mentioned that I am revamping the site for next season. If you have any comments on anything you like or don’t like or would like to see it is always appreciated and I can be e-mailed on mail@simplesoccerstats.com. Any other leagues you would like to see?
This week there are two corner bets as I really liked what I found..
Middlesboro v Portsmouth (eng prem – sat 3pm local time)
This bet really stands out. The handicap is low considering you have a team with the equal highest home corners outside of the big 4 against the team that averages the lowest amount of corners in the league away. I have excluded big 4 games in the anaysis for both teams and for Boro at the Riverside you end up with 7.6 corners and a supremacy of 3.4 over their opponents. For Pompey away they average 3.8 corners and the supremacy is around 2.3. A 2 corner supremacy will return a winner here and the 7.6 Boro average less the 3.8 Pompey one is 3.8 so we should be in. It would have been a winner in 10/13 Boro home games and and 9/14 Pompey away games and 7of the last 8.
++ ++ Asian Handicap Corners – Middlesborough -1.5, -2 @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)
Liverpool V Man City (eng prem – sun 4pm local time)
This is an easy one. ManCity have the 5th lowest corner average in the league and travel to Anfield for the live fixture. Liverpool allow their opponents a stagerringly low 2.5 corners on average and in 18 games this season only Everton, Newcastle and Bolton have managed to have over 3 corners. Therefore with Paddy Power offering 2.3 on ManCity to have less than 4 corners it just has to be taken.
++ Team Corners – ManCity Under 4 Corners @ 2.3 on Paddy Power (1pt)
Just one different style bet this season but one that has been a winner before.
St Etienne v Lille (france – sun 6pm local time)
I don’t know what St Etienne play like but their home record still amazes me. In 17 games they have conceded just 4 goals, which would give odds of 1.31 if they could keep it up. In the last 6 home matches they have let in just one goal and Lille are the visitors who sit one place below them in 6th. Lille scored 3 away at Marseille last game which is no mean achievement but before that had scored just 4 goals in the previous 11 away games.
++ Away Team To Score –No @ 2.55 on Sporting Bet (1pt)
Now the standard fare
Rochdale v Shrewsbury (eng lge 2 – sat 3pm local time)
Rochdale are in the playoffs and their manager has been talking about how they are ready to step up a division. He also asked the supporters to turn up on Saturday for a celebration and hopefully that means they will be there to win. Rochdale have won 7 on the bounce at home and an 8th would send them into the playoffs with a formidable home record and they have only lost once in the last 10 matches. Shrewsbury travel a few players light as they have been released and only rock bottom Wrexham have a worse away record. Shrewsbury have won just once in the last 18 matches and away from you have to go back 12 games to find their last win. The price is odds on but looking at the form it should be much much shorter and if it wasn’t the last day of the season I’d up this to 2 points.
++ Win Market – Rochdale @ 1.73 (1pt) on Bet365 (was 1.8 on Bet365 and is still 1.75 on Sporting Odds)
Nancy v Strasbourg (france – sat 8pm local time)
Both teams have something to play for here but at different ends of the table. Nancy lie in 4th just one point behind Marseille for the all important 3rd champions league slot. Nancy are the only team in the league unbeaten at home this season and have won 12 of the 17 games there and 5 of the last 6. Strasbourg are in the drop zone 3 points from safety and have taken lost the last 8 games straight and this looks a tough one for them and the prices agree. Looking for an angle I noticed that Strasbourg started the season well away from home but in the last 11 games have conceded 23 goals and with Nancy never conceding more than 1 goal at home it could be expected they will win by more than 1 goal. Therefore I’ll plump for the AH Nancy -1 as I think Nancy should win and if it goes to form we could see a margin of victory greater than 1 and a winning bet but a win for Nancy guarantees no loss.
++ Asian Handicap – Nancy – 1 @ 2.05 on Bet365 (1pt)
Real Zaragoza v Deportivo La Coruña (spain – sat 10pm local time)
I’m cheating here and adding what I wrote last week. The transformation from Depor has been amazing this season. In Spain they refer to the season being in two halves and for Deportivo they managed 24 points in their first 24 matches and were in relegation trouble but in the last 10 games they have accumulated 25 points and have the best record in La Liga over the last 10 games. Xisco has been banging in the goals and they have won 5 games in a row. I would think they are the team no-one wants to play and are amazingly in with an outside chance of a place in Europe. Zaragoza are in the drop zone and have been rubbish this season, although their home form has been quite solid. However, with just 1 win in the last 7 and 2 in the last 12 their current form is not good and the only win in the last 7 was against Recreativo in a 6 pointer when they scored very early and played against 10 men for half the game. The pressure is all on Zaragoza and their fans may get on their backs in things go badly. I looked at draw no bet, Depor 0, +0.5 on the AH but really the 4 that is on offer for the win is too much. I can’t resist that.
++ Win Market – Deportivo @ 3.75 on Stan James/Bet Direct (1pt)
6 points bet in total.
Spinner Rinse
We live in hope. Leeds to beat Gillingham (lge 1), Hereford to beat Grimsby and Rochdale to beat Shrewsbury (lge 2) and Nancy to beat Strasbourg (france).
++ Four-fold accumulator @ 8.66 on Bet365.
NOTES
All games will be updated on Monday morning.
