I wasn’t going to bet this weekend and am off to the races at Ascot tomorrow but there’s an opportunity that looks too good to miss.

Real Mallorca v Sevilla (Spain: Sun 5pm local time)

The deal here is that Mallorca are poor and it turns out Sevilla are better than I thought they were. Mallorca are the last team to go through the spinner rinse and play the big 4, yet already only Osasuna have less points than them. It’s realistic to expect them to get no more points from the next 4 games and so could easily be in a poor position at the half way stage. Sevilla lost to Barcelona 3-0 a few weeks back but have bounced back beating Madrid 4-3 in the Bernebau and then winning against Villareal. If we look at the bottom line stats we see Sevilla would win the 4/7 and Mallorca would lose 2/7  which overall gives odds of 2.33. The price is much lower than this but I do think the fact Mallorca have not played the big 4 matches is crucial. In their last 10 games they have taken just 5 points, whereas Sevilla have accrued 19 and played Barcelona, Real Madrid, Valencia and Villarreal. William Hill offer 1.83 on this match and I think they have it about right. 2.1 is far too much.

++ Win Market – Sevilla @ 2.1 on Paddy Power (1pt) – 2 generally

1 point staked on the weekend.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.