Champions League Idea

A few years ago I trialled a method where I looked at historical games between Champions League teams by country. The idea was to compare results between countries to get  an idea on the outcome based on the historical matches. Then use those and the odds available to see if there is any value in them.

This week there are 4 games that seem to have value

Manchester Utd to bt Bayer Leverkusen @ 1.8 generally (1.83 max)

Arsenal to win at Marseille @ 2.5 generally (2.6 max)

Napoli to bt Dortmund (Draw no bet) @ 2.1 (2.21 max which is Napoli (0) on AH)

I have not taken the best prices and will stake a fictional 1pt on all of these and some will actually carry real money as well.