Managed to get ahead of myself this week and went through all the games on Thursday night which left me just to sift through them today.
Off to the Molinon on Sunday again when Sporting Gijón hopefully can win again and keep moving up the table. La Liga is pretty hard to read at the moment though as none of the big teams have played each other and so it’s hard to gauge form. Valencia lost at home last weekend for the second time in a row and I’m not sure about them. I was thinking of backing Sevilla at home but couldn’t quite see enough justification.
On to the matches and a corner bet to begin
Tottenham v Blackburn (English Premiership: Sun 1:30pm Local Time)
The Asian line of 11.5 is very high and it seems a few crazy games have affected it. Looking at the bottom line figures for Spurs home and Blackburn away games this would have been a winner 7/12 which is odds of 1.71 so already we seem to be doing well getting 1.9. In Spurs home defeats by Hull, Villa and Sunderland they managed 12 corners in each. In the 3 other games they drew and won the figure is 10 in total. Things have changed at White Hart Lane and I can’t see them chasing the game madly. The Bolton game was the first Redknapp match and in that and the 4 games since they have managed just 16 corners. Blackburn average 5 corners away and the only time they have had matches with over 11 corners was at Bolton and West Ham and their grounds both feature in the top 4 for total corner average.
++ Asian Total Corners – Under 11.5 @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)
Portsmouth v Hull (English Premiership: Sat 3pm Local Time)
A couple of my friends said the wheels had to fall off Hull soon but I’m not so sure. They made quite a few acquisitions before and during the early part of the season, especially up front and that seems to have made the difference. Their home form has let them down but away from home they have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1 and that includes visiting Old Trafford and the Emirates. They have scored in every away game and although they leaked 4 at Old Trafford they have only conceded 3 goals in the 5 other away games. This is part statistics part instinct as I am not a big fan of Tony Adams and I think Portsmouth will struggle to maintain the record they had with Redknapp. They come into this game with 1 win in 6 and have only scored 4 goals in those matches. In 13 matches this season they have only scored 13 goals. The price on Hull to win of 4.8 looks too big in my book and I want to risk ½pt on that and then ½pt on them to win 2-1.
++ Win Market – Hull @ 4.5 on General (½pt) – 4.8 on Blue Sq.
++ Correct Score – 1-2 @ 16/1 on Coral/Skybet/Blue Sq (½pt)
Wigan v Everton (English Premiership: Monday 8pm Local Time)
This game is on Monday but I’m including it in the weekends analysis. After taking 8 points from their first 8 games Everton have hit a decent run and taken 11 from the last 5. Wigan have won just once in the last 7 games and just once at home all season. This form with Everton’s away was the clincher for me as you can back Everton at over evens on the Asian Handicap (0)/Draw no bet. Taking Everton’s 6 away games and Wigan’s 6 at home this bet would be a winner 7 times, been voided 3 times and lost just twice. It has to be bet.
++ Asian Handicap – Everton (0) @ 2.06 on Ladbrokes (1pt) – 2.07 VC and 2.05 Bet365
Ipswich v Derby (English Championship: Saturday 3pm Local Time)
I keep an eye on Derby as I rate Paul Jewell but there was no value in them here but when looking at the game I noticed that 7/8 Ipswich home games feature 2 or 3 goals and 7/8 Derby away games featured 2-3 goals. That’s 87% chance of that happening which is odds of 1.14. I know that’s not prefect reasoning but I had a look at markets around this and when I saw 1.91 on there being 2 or 3 goals it looks like a good bet. If this is a success I’ll look at this type of bet again as the price looks decent.
++ Total Goals – 2-3 @ 1.91 on Paddy Power/Blue Sq/VC (1pt)
Bordeaux v Rennes (France: Saturday 7pm local time)
Rennes are another team I have been following this season as I think they could give decent betting opportunities. They are now up to 3rd in the table and are the only team to have beaten the leaders Lyon and that was a 3-1 victory. On the opening day of the season they drew 4-4 with Marseille, after being 3-1 down at half time, and in the 13 matches since then have conceded just 6 goals. Amazingly away they have conceded just once in 6 matches. The problem for Rennes was drawing too many matches but with 3 wins on the bounce and no defeats since 17th August there is something about them. Bordeaux are very strong at home and have won 5 and drawn 2 matches but I think this one could be another draw. I know they will have a job to beat Rennes so by taking Rennes on the Asian Handicap at +0.5 we essentially are getting a double chance bet.
++ Asian Handicap – Rennes (-0.5) @ 1.96 on Stan James (1pt)
Reall Mallorca v Malaga (Spain: Sunday 5pm local time)
Sporting and Malaga came up behind Numancia last season but have done very well starting the season. Malaga lost 3 of the first 4 games and then won 4 straight before hitting the crazy fixture blip which means you play Sevilla, Barca, Real Madrid and Villareal on consecutive weekends. They beat Sevilla and drew with Villareal and of the 8 teams to have been through that tunnel of death have gained the most points (4). Mallorca lost Guiza, Jonas and Matzulem in the off season and I’m not sure they have replaced them. Last home game they threw away a 2 goal lead against Athletic Bilbao who are in the bottom 3 and come to the game with 1 win in 6. They have a decent home record but 4 of the bottom 5 teams have been to the island and Gijón are the only team in the top half (that feels good) to have visited and they won 2-0. Malaga have some very talented players and I could see them doing the same.
++ Win Market – Malaga @ 3.6 on Stan James (1pt) – 3.5 on Betfred
6 points staked on the weekend.
Good luck in whatever bets you do.
