Sleeping giants (defensively speaking)

Put Spanish giants into google and 8 of the first 10 posts refer to the football teams. One lists the translation and just one refers to the Gigantes, which are the amazing figures made for many of the festivals around Spain.

In the last 2 rounds of the Champions League Barca have needed a late goal to snatch a win against Celtic and then been beaten 2-1 at Parkhead. Real Madrid have taken just 1 point from a possible 6, albeit against a genuine Champions League contender. We’ve had 4 group games in the Champions League and 11 league matches so I thought it might be worth looking at their performance. I have chosen just to look at goals scored and goals conceded. They win so many matches in the league it is pointless looking at their performance there really.

Looking at goals scored below we see that in the Champions League Real Madrid have scored the same as at this stage last year. Both have scored 8 goals but last year Barca were already on 13 at this stage. In the league Barca have wracked up a crazy 36 goals already and they were on 34 at the same stage last season. Madrid had scored 43 at this stage last season and now are on a paltry 27!

Goals scored by Real Madrid and Barcelona this year compared to last season.

Now let’s look at goals conceded and there are some bigger differences. Last season in the Champions League Madrid’s defence was tighter than a gnats you know what and they had not leaked a goal after 4 games although Lyon, Ajax and Dinamo Zagreb were their opponents last year and I don’t think the Champions League has ever seen a tougher group than they are in now. Barcelona probably have a slightly tougher group than last time but still letting in 5 goals in 4 games against Celtic (2 matches),  Spartak Moscow and Benfica is not great. IN the group only Spartak Moscow have conceded more goals than them.

If we look at the keague then Madrid are in exactly the same place as they were last season letting in 8 goals in 11 games. The Barcelona difference is significant here as they have let in 14 goals in 11 games compared to just 6 goals last season. They surely can’t continue like this as you can’t always outscore the opponents. They have conceded 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 6 matches. Figures like that become hard to shift and when the confidence goes at the back things will get more nervy. Osasuna are bottom of the league and have conceded just one goal more than Barca!

Goals conceded (correctly spelt unlike the title) by Real Madrid and Barcelona for last season compared to this.

In terms of betting is there anyway we can profit from this? Possibly lay Barcelona at various points in a match and look to trade out if they let in a goal? Back over 2.5 or 3.5 goals etc as if they are conceding as well as scoring then this becomes far more likely. 8 of the 11 matches have featured 4 or more goals.

Betting School Article

Once a month I write an article for Betting School and this month is no exception. I am doing something based on shots and the idea coming out is that is could be a decent indicator of success. So to test it this weekend I have a few selections that I am putting up. I am putting them up for reference as they are in the article and I want to post them

Bundesliga – Hannover look to be a bit lucky being so high up with so few shots but they are at home to Borussia Monchengladbach who also are poor. Freiburg have had a lot of shots and so have Leverkusen and Hoffenheim could be better off than they are. Sadly Leverkusen and Hoffenheim are away from home and the only possible looks to be Freiburg.


Eredivisie – Roda look to be in a false position as do Waalwijk. Vitesse and Hercales both play at home and look to have less points than their shot ranking deserves. I like them and also Venlo who have just 1 point at home but are ranked in the top half of average shots.


Premier League – West Brom and West Ham look to have been lucky and again Liverpool look to be unlucky! Swansea, Spurs, Arsenal and Villa all look to have less points than their shots deserve. Of these only Villa are at home.


Predictions (Best odds available at 18.05 (CET) on Thursday 25th October)


Freiburg to bt Dortmund @ 6.0 with WH

Vitesse to bt AZ @ 2.18 with Pinnacle

Heracles to bt Heerenveen @ 2.04 with Pinnacle

Venlo to bt NAC Breda @ 2.28 with Pinnacle

Aston Villa to bt Norwaich @ 1.96 with Pinnacle

Football Tipsters (advice from the Secret Betting Club)

An international break in the season gives a chance to look through old emails and see stuff I may have missed the first time around. I found an email from the Secret Betting Club from late August with their pre-season package. Some of the stuff may be out of date but their review of football tipsters is not.

I like the guys from SBC and they offer a very good product and it is worth checking out this free offering at the very least. Their text is below

Football promotion:

Dear Betting Enthusiast,

To help showcase the Secret Betting Club’s newly released 2012/13 Football Betting & Tipster Guide , they have put together an extra special sample edition for you to download for free.

Available now via this link, this sample guide gives you an insight into the following…

Their top football tipster tables – see how much you can make by key calculations such as ‘best percentage betting bank growth’,  best on a budget, best for low work & best for high stakes.

  • An interview with top football tipster ‘The Football Analyst’ and his new season expectations, expertise and most over/under rated teams.
  • The football system up £73.30 to £1 level stakes in the Premier League for the last 2 seasons.
  • The SBC ratings that can help you choose the right footy tipster.
  • Their easy guide to understanding Asian Handicap betting.
  • Plus how to claim your £10 Free bet for the new season and much more besides.

You can download this sample edition totally for free by visiting this link.

Its available in PDF format and is just 0.7MB in size.

The Ideal Companion For The New Season

If you like this free sample of their 2012/13 Football Betting & Tipster Guide, then you might like to consider picking up the full version, which is available to anyone with a Secret Betting Club (SBC) membership.

The instant you join SBC, you can download your copy and begin your quest to making more money betting this football season.

Click here to join the Secret Betting Club

Don’t forget either that they offer a full no quibble money-back guarantee if you join them and are not happy in anyway.

That’s right,  no small print and no hidden conditions as they passionately believe in only providing a service that you will find useful.

Goran’s Winners keeps winning

About 6 months ago I started working with Goran on the website. Goran has a well established tipping service and needed someone to help him on the admin side and build a program to allow him to present live betting advice to his members.

I was unsure of what to expect from working with Goran but I have been incredibly impressed with him. He works hard, has some excellent contacts and reads the game very well. In the live betting he really excels and the results speak for themselves.

He started the live betting service 2 years ago on 16th October 2010 and since then has the following results

Bets = 446

Stake = 576

Profit = 101.74

ROI = 17.7%

He has been remarkably consistent over that time with the longest run of losers (lose) before a win was just 5. In the same period he managed a winning run of 7 consecutive wins (void bets with returned stakes ignored) before a loser. Not many services can boast a longer winning run that losing.

With such small losing runs you would not need a big bank to follow this service which is a big bonus.  The average stake over that period was 1.29pts so this is an easy to follow service.

This season he has hit the ground running with 22 bets staking 26 points and returning 7.89 points profit.  There have been just 5 losers and 2 drawn (stakes returned bets), 1 bet a win/draw split return and all the others straight winners.

The website displays all the results here and you can see for yourself.

I know you enjoy betting on football as you use the site and this service is second to none.  If you need further testing then the results are all proofed to the Secret Betting Club and if you have any questions about the service then email me on

Punter Profits

I am a member of punter profits and over a number of years have been very active on their forum. It’s a great place to learn and test out ideas.

I got an email from them last week as they are just launching their new National Hunt Racing portfolio. This is how they describe it:

The Nh Portfolio has run for many years now. Over the next week we will be unveiling an additional
but similar styled portfolio approach. It has been christened the NH 500 Portfolio as it has averaged £500 a month to £100 level stakes at SP over ten years of researched history.

So a long term steady earner for a long long period of time. Strike rate is comfortable at about 30%

As per the original NH portfolio we will not be giving away the rules. More so a case of emailing qualifiers daily to clients here. 

In terms of the racing side of things they have a free trainer report produced by a friend of mine called Dave Renham, who puts in the hard work to find useful angles. There is a free copy of that anyone can download on

This is not just a racing site and there is a football section as well with some decent contributors.