The story so far – 17 bets, 8 wins, 14pts staked, +6.75pts
Last matchday of the group stages and a couple more bets. Chelsea and Shaktar both look value but neither of those games means anything for them so I’ll swerve those and stick to games that mean something.
Juventus v Atletico Madrid – Draw @ 3.1 with VC, WH, Lads and others
Roma v Manchester City – Roma @ 2.5 with Bet365, Lads, WH and BF
The Juventus game is interesting as the draw has been hammered right in to 3.1. Olympiakos have the edge over Juve in the H2H which I think is the first way they decide the groups and if Olympiakos win and Juve lose then Juve could go out. A draw suits Juve and also lets Atletico top the group, but really Juve have to want to top the group as that means you avoid Bayern, Real Madrid, Chelsea and PSG/Barca. It’s one of those games where if the draw keeps crashing then the value on the win part is much bigger. Atletico will settle for the draw late on and Juve might not search out a winner but the rest, you’d expect to a proper contest.
Juve have lost twice already and were 2-1 down at home to Olympiakos before winning 3-2 and Serie A still hasn’t shown itself to be a strong league compared to the rest of Europpe and the 4.33 on Atleti is starting to appeal and if they go out to 4.5 I think there’s big value there.