Well a weekend where nothing was won and nothing was lost. However, if the correct score double was backed on Bet365 you will find yourself up 2.5 points. I couldn't work out why for ages but it seems they refund all losing correct score bets on 0-0 matches so we ended up with a 1/2point bet on the 1-1 at 7 on Bet365 in the Cheltenham game.

In Spain Real Madrid finally won again beating Sevilla but Villareal are now in 2nd place and must be kicking themselves for all the points they surrended earlier in the season.

SSS Tips
The corner bet was a winner as Reading and Newcastle shared 13 and I still can't belive the Expekt quote for that game. For the correct score double the Cheltenham v Northampton bit was right at 1-1 but Notts County and Mansfield finished 0-0 and really the nature of the game being so important it might have been prudent to have avoided that game. Nevertheless as I stated above if it was backed on Bet365 a nice 2.5 point profit on the weekend will have been made. Spurs amazingly were crushed 4-1 by Newcastle. Not much that can be said about that as the bet couldn't have been more wrong. The Chester v Stockport game was abandoned due to heavy rain and the trip to Scotland was fruitful as Brechin beat Cowdenbeath with 2 late goals.

Bets 156 Wins 69 (plus 11 void and 6 void/lost), Points 144.5 staked Profit +19.77

Spinner Rinse
The bookies were laughing at the rinse again with 3 out of 5 winning selections as Napoli, Deportivo and Chelsea obliged but Hamburg drew and Spurs lost.

Accumulators 23, Winners 1, Profit -15.49

NOTES

All the weekend results are in. There are a handful of midweek games in England and Scotland which I will look at later. When I update the games on Wednesday I'll add the referees for the weekend matches.

SSS Tips

This is much later than I hoped but I had to go through the games a few times to find this.A bit of a novelty bet.

Reading v Blackburn (prem – sat 3pm local time)

A high corner line as the Madjeski took the crown from Fratton Park and with Reading averaging 12.7 corners in home games and Blackburn 12.3 in away games it looks like a good bet. Reading matches have the most corners whether they are home or away but Blackburn matches have the 4th most corners of teams away. Looking at the stats with the line at 11.5, 12 this would have won 15/31, half won/half voided another 5 times and lost only 11/31 times. The fact that Blackburn average so many corners away should edge it more in our favour. If anyone has an account with Expekt they have priced up over 10.5 at 1.75 and deserve to be punished for that!
++ Asian Total Corners – Over 11.5, 12 @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)

5 points staked in total on the weekend now.

SSS Tips

Be nice if we could break the 20 point barrier again this weekend and not sink back below it! I’ve tried to concentrate more in England this weekend but there were a few bets elsewhere I really liked.

Last weekend I called the Sevilla v Atletico Madrid game wrongly and the price on Sevilla had collapsed pre-game so it was a big surprise. Both teams have big games this weekend and with 3^rd place Villareal hosting Atletico and Sevilla travelling to Real Madrid it could make for an interesting weekend. It could be that Villareal find themselves 3 points off the top on Sunday night.

Normally I’ll kick off with a corner bet but the odds aren’t out for these yet so I’ll look at them later. Rather than hold all the bets off till I’ve checked them I’ll just add it later.

A bit of a novelty bet.

Cheltenham v Northampton (eng lge 1 – sat 3pm local time) / Notts Country v Mansfield (eng lge 1 – sat 3pm local time)

A one-off bet here and the first time I will use a ¼point bet as it’s actually 4x¼ point bets on correct scores. I can’t go into too much detail as it’s 2 games but I think covering 2 scores in each game with 4 correct score doubles is worth a small risk.Cheltenham love to score 1 goal doing it in 16/20 home games so 1-0 and 1-1 are my preferred options here.  The Notts Country games is a big battle at the bottom and neither team score that many but Mansfield have put together a decent run away from home and so 1-1 and 1-2 look worth covering. Bet365 give the best odds and if they came in we would make at least 11 points.

++ 4 x Correct Score doubles – Chelt 1-0, 1-1 / Notts Co 1-1, 2-1 @ 7.5, 7 / 7, 11 on Bet365 (4 x ¼pt = 1pt)

The more traditional fare.

Tottenham v Newcastle (prem – sun 3pm local time)

Newcastle beat Fulham last weekend to record their first league win since 15^th December. In the 13 matches between the wins they only managed to draw at home to Derby, Bolton and Middlesboro and draw away at Birmingham. They have lost 10 of the 15 away games this season and lost 6 of the last 7. Taking the last 10 away games they have manages to score just 5 goals and shipped 24 goals. With a record like that travelling to White Hart Land should mean goals as no-one has scored more goals than Spurs at home this season, no-one has conceded more either but since Ramos took over at the end of October their record has been very strong at home. They have played 10 home games with Ramos at the helm and won 7, drawn against Man Utd and Chelsea and lost to Birmingham in his second game. They have scored an amazing 32 goals in those 10 games and conceded 14 showing they like a decent margin of victory. After taking all that in it looks like Spurs will win by more than the odd goal so it’s a case of finding the best bet. There are markets like Spurs to score 3 or more but it’s all very tricky so have decide a split stake bet.
++ Winning Margin – Tottenham to win by 2 or more goals @ 3.1 on Bet365 (½pt)
++ Asian Handicap – Tottenham -0.5, -1 @ 1.8 on Bet365 (½pt)

The more traditional bets.

Chester v Stockport (eng lge 2 – sat 3pm local time)

On a basic level Chester have a home record of W5 D3 L12 and Stockport away are W12 D4 L4 so it looks like a Stockport win 24/40 (60%) so odds of 1.67 but Stockport can be backed at above evens. They have lost their club captain to Swansea but bought in someone else on loan and BBC report Chester have injury problems. Stockport are expected to bring 2,000 fans to this game and they are on form at the moment taking 23 from a possible 30 points in the last 10 games, whereas Chester have managed just 6 of a possible 30. At home only Mansfield are worse than Chester and they have lost 8 of the last 9 games. Stockport have lost just once in the past 17 games and away from home have won 8 and drawn 1 of the last 9 games. The overall picture favours Stockport and recent form makes them seem better than the price on offer.
++ Win Market – Stockport @ 2.1 on generally (1pt)

Cowdenbeath v Brechin (scots two – sat 3pm local time)

A rare trip up North to Scotland for this bet but it stood out on the AH console. In the last 10 games Brechin have gained as many points as runaway league leaders RossCounty whereas Cowdenbeath have lost 8 of their 10. At home Cowdenbeath have lost 7 of the last 8 games conceding 23 goals scoring just 10. Brechin on the other hand went the first 8 away games of the season without a win only managing 3 of a possible 24 points. Not sure what they found under the Christmas tree but since boxing day have won 5 and drawn to of the 7 away games gaining 17 of the 21 points on offer. The last away game was a 0-0 draw with the league leaders and that was the first time in that 7 game period they have not scored at least 2 goals.
++ Win Market – Brechin @ 2.1 on Tote/Expekt/Betfred (1pt)

4 points bet in total with a possible extra to come with the corners.

Spinner Rinse

A mixture of odds here with Chelsea to beat Middlesboro, Spurs to beat Newcastle (Both Prem), Hamburg to Beat Bielefeld (Germany), Napoli to beat Parma (Italy) and Deportivo La Coruña (Spain).
++ Five-fold accumulator @ 10.84 on VCBet

NOTES

Matches will be updated as normal on Monday.

After breaking the 20 point barrier we now slipped back under it with yesterdays results. I'll update everything on the site when the ref appointments are released later today. I have done some further analysis below to try and find where mots success has been achieved and will concentrate on those areas until the end of the season.  

SSS Tips
Cheltenham beat Orient 1-0 and although I highlighted it as 1 of 3 possible scores that's no consolation. I do think that in games where under 2.5 looks likely it's better to try and get the score right that back a low odds under 2.5 quote. Hartlepool landed the handicap bet beating Yeovil 2-0 but Macclesfield beat Barnet 3-0 and were leading 2-0 at HT ruining that bet.

Bets 150 Wins 67 (plus 10 void and 6 void/lost), Points 139.5 staked Profit +19.77

NOTES

As mentioned earlier everything will be in and ready once the ref appointments are released. I think there are only 3 games in midweek, which are in Scotland, as it's international week.

ANALYSIS SO FAR

Leagues

Prem – 32 bets / 10.56pts return
Eng Lge 1 – 14 bets / 9.08pts return
Eng Lge 2 – 24 bets / 7.955pts return
Various – 11 bets / 1.8pts return
Serie A – 7 bets / 0.35pts return
Bundesliga – 4 bets / 0.31pts return
Championship – 17 bets / -0.12pts return
Europe – 1 bets / -1pts return
La Liga – 12 bets / -1.425pts return
Scottish – 9 bets / -1.54pts return
Italy – 4 bets / -3pts return
France – 15 bets / -3.2pts return

Type of Bet

Asian Hcap – 49 bets / 7.82pts return
Corners – 19 bets / 7.47pts return
Accumulator – 7 bets / 4.77pts return
Match Bet – 9 bets / 3.025pts return
Half Time – 12 bets / 1.48pts return
Over/Under – 13 bets / 1.205pts return
Draw No Bet – 6 bets / 0.75pts return
HT Score – 2 bets / 0.65pts return
Winning Margin – 5 bets / 0.1pts return
Correct Score – 8 bets / 0pts return
Team Goals – 1 bets / -0.5pts return
Not to score – 1 bets / -1pts return
Win To Nil – 1 bets / -1pts return
HT/FT – 17 bets / -5pts return

Looks like I should stick to the corner and asian handicap/match bets and spend more time looking for these in England!

Easter Monday used to be a big football day in England but with internationals scheduled for midweek only the two lower divisions play. They have been profitable this season and I am trying to concentrate on them more and more as we come to the end of the season. It may be a bit risky betting on games so close together but only time will tell.

SSS Tips

Cheltenham v Leyton Orient (eng lge 1 – mon 3pm local time)

Looking at this game the likely score looks to be 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1 from the correct score chart. I’m going to plump for 1-1 as that has happened in 6 Cheltenham home games and 5 Orient away games which is 11/38 (29%) and should be odds of 3.45 but we can get 7. Cheltenham have scored just 1 goal in 7 of the last 10 away games and for orient away it’s 6 in the last 10 and 1 goal in each of the last 4 away games.
++ Correct Score – 1-1 @ 7 on Bet365 (½ pt)

Hartlepool v Yeovil (eng lge 1 – mon 3pm local time)

Just one point separates these teams and they are 14^th and 15^th in the division. At home Hartlepool have been strong winning 10/19 home games and 5 of the last 6. In those 5 games they have scored 2, 4, 3, 4 and 4 goals so seem to be on-song at that end of the pitch. Yeovil haven’t won away for 9 games, managing just 4 goals in those 9 games. Hartlepool are a best priced evens on the win market but if you take the AH market -0.5 you can get 2.05 on Bet365 or 2.08 on Pinnacle (I don’t include that when I set the price as not many people will have an account with them but it’s well worth it). Not taking into account recent form the results this season suggest it’s an evens chance but the goals scored lately and the form makes me think it’s better than that.
++ Asian Handicap – Hartlepool (-0.5) @ 2.05 on Bet365 (1pt)

Macclesfield v Barnet (eng lge 2 – mon 3pm local time)

11/19 Macclesfield home games have been a draw at HT and 11/17 Barney games which is 22/36 (61%) and so odds of 1.64 but this can be backed at 2.2. 7 of the last 10 Macclesfield home games have been a HT draw and 5 of the last 10 Barnet games showing this pattern is current and worth a risk
++ Half Time – Draw @ 2.2 on Bet365 (1pt)

2½ points staked

NOTES

I’m a bit behind updating games but will rectify that later today and tomorrow. A few midweek games elsewhere but unlikely to be a bet.