Simple Weekend (FIFA Club World Cup)

In the week we posted this about the Club World Championship and it took a late goal by Real Madrid to secure the 2 goal victory and therefore any stake on Real Madrid -2 on the Asian Handicap was returned.

world-club-championship

They play again today and you have to go back 11 matches to the final in 2009 to find the last time a European team did not win by 2 goals or more. Since the change of format in 12 of the last 13 matches the European teams have shown the gulf in glass in this tournament and won by 2 goals or more. The price on the Asian Handicap for Real Madrid -2 is around 1.8 and really looks a solid bet based on that stat.

European Teams in the World Club Championship (1 year on)

Last year we published this article about the World Club Championship and both bets were winners. We have updated the data to include those results and now we have all matches from 2009 to 2015 and the results are shown below

DateTeam 1ScoreTeam 2-2 AH-2.5AH
20.12.2015River Plate0-3BarcelonaWinWin
17.12.2015Barcelona3-0Guangzhou EvergrandeWinWin
20.12.2014Real Madrid2-0San LorenzoVoidLose
16.12.2014Cruz Azul0-4Real MadridWinWin
21.12.2013Bayern Munich2-0Raja CasablancaVoidLose
17.12.2013Guangzhou Evergrande0-3Bayern MunichWinWin
18.12.2011Santos0-4BarcelonaWinWin
15.12.2011Al-Sadd0-4BarcelonaWinWin
18.12.2010Mazembe0-3InterWinWin
15.12.2010Seongnam0-3InterWinWin
19.12.2009Estudiantes L.P.1-1*BarcelonaLoseLose
16.12.2009Atlante3-1BarcelonaVoidLose

The European team plays just 2 matches in this tournament and in those 12 matches have conceeded goals in only 2 and none in the last 5 years. It seems clear there is a big gulf in class between the European teams and the others in this and the -2 Asian Handicap looks an interesting bet as this has lost just once in that time and that was in the final in 2009. In all the semi final matches the European teams have managed to score 3 goals or more.

Bet Victor are offering 1.87 (was 1.9 when the article was started) on the Asian Handicap -2 and that looks a good bet.

Europa League

Today the Champions League kicks back into action but also so does the Europa League. The revamped league section has not been that well received but once this tournament enters the knockout section it becomes excellent. It has 32 teams so they squeeze in one more round than the Champions League and with the 2 time slots on a Thursday means you get back to back matches. It produces some excellent matchups and plenty of goals. The added bonus of a Champions League place increases the prize and all of this on a Thursday which is a big bonus.

Some tips were posted on the blog last season for the Europa League and the same will be done again based on past results.

europa

The Europa League has run in it’s current format for 6 seasons and the winners have been Atletico Madrid twice, Porto, Chelsea and Sevilla twice. Those teams come from Portugal, Spain and England and those countries have provided 17 of the 24 semi-finalists in those 6 tournaments. Spain are the European powerhouse at the moment and they have proven that in the Europa League and previously in the UEFA cup. Of the last 12 finals spanning those 2 competitions a Spanish team has taken the trophy in 7 of them and they have also provided a losing finalist in a couple. It therefore seems a bit odd that in the betting for this tournament it’s Dortmund and Napoli who are the favourites with Dortmund a clear favourite at a best priced 8.0.

7 of the last 12 winners were Spanish is a pretty staggering record and  they have 4 teams in it this season in Sevilla, Valencia, Villarreal and Athletic Bilbao. If any bookmaker offers the winning nation bet I think that is worth taking. Valencia are really struggling this season and are unlikely to be able to galvanise themselves enough to survive this tournament.

The Dortmund price looks much too short in a tournament this unpredictable. The Wolfsburg team, featuring De Bruyne, which came 2nd in the Bundesliga last season was eliminated in the quarter finals last season by Napoli and you have to go back to 2010 to find a German team in the Europa League semi finals. Bayern Munich are a massively strong team but the rest of the Bundesliga still has a bit to prove. Dortmund also start off against Porto and that is not going to be easy for them.

Napoli are best priced 12.0 and both them and Fiorentina made the semi finals last season and Juve also made the semis the year before so they are worthy of that price considering their position in Serie A. You also have Lazio and Fiorentina in the draw but Fiorentina have a tough opener against Spurs and Lazio are just too unpredictable.

Looking at the English clubs I think Spurs will not prioritise this tournament. They are looking solid for a Champions League place and battling for the title. A gruelling set of Thursday night matches is not what they need as they are also still in the FA cup. It would not be a surprise to see Fiorentina knock them out. Man Utd and Liverpool are second joint 3rd favourites at a best priced 13.0 but both have been inconsistent this year. However, it looks like winning this tournament is the only way they can play Champions League football and that is a massive prize for them so they both will be all out to win this. English teams often seem to be too short in these markets, possibly down to the volume of bets placed on them.

Sporting Lisbon are currently top of the pile in Portugal and have beaten both Benfica and Porto this season. Jorge Jesus is their manager and he took Benfica to the final in both 2013 and 2014 and now has changed teams so is longer under the Béla Guttmann curse. They have a tough draw against Leverkusen but Portugal has provided 4 of the last 10 finalists and they look to be a good bet at 50/1.

This looks to be a wide open tournament again and so the best strategy is to look for value. Spanish teams deserve a lot of respect and Villarreal and Sevilla are the best of the two this season sitting in 4th and 5th in the league. Sporting Lisbon are worth a speculative bet and at the price so is Fiorentina. If they can get past Spurs then they have a good chance and made the semi finals last season.

Advice

Sevilla 13.0 generally (15.0 with Corals) 1pt

Villarreal 26.0 generally 0.5pt e/w

Fiorentina 26.0 generally 1pt e/w

Sporting Lisbon 41.0 generally (51.0 with Bet365) 0.5pt e/w

e/w bets are all 1/2 odds on making the final

European Teams in the World Club Championship

Barcelona play Guangzhou Evergrande tonight in the Fifa Club World Cup. Their odds to win the match are around with 1.13 and even without Neymar you would expect them to breeze this. They next play in the league on 30th December at home to Real Betis so there is no big games to keep the players fresh for and Messi needs a few more games to improve his fitness so would be expected to play.

 

barcelona

The table below shows how the European team has done in the last 5 Club World Cups as well as their performance against the -2 and -2.5 Asian Handicap

DateTeam 11G2GTeam 2-2 AH-2.5AH
20.12.2014Real Madrid20San LorenzoVoidLose
16.12.2014Cruz Azul04Real MadridWinWin
21.12.2013Bayern Munich20Raja CasablancaVoidLose
17.12.2013Guangzhou Evergrande03Bayern MunichWinWin
18.12.2011Santos04BarcelonaWinWin
15.12.2011Al-Sadd04BarcelonaWinWin
18.12.2010Mazembe03InterWinWin
15.12.2010Seongnam03InterWinWin
19.12.2009Estudiantes L.P.11*BarcelonaLoseLose
16.12.2009Atlante31BarcelonaVoidLose

The European team plays just 2 matches in this tournament and in those 10 matches have conceeded goals in only 2 and none in the last 4 years. It seems clear there is a big gulf in class between the European teams and the others in this and the -2 Asian Handicap looks an interesting bet. The price is 1.72 with Dafabet and although that might not appeal to everyone it has lost just once in the last 10 years. 3 times the handicap was matched and so the stake was returned and a winner on 6 occasions which looks decent value.

 

The -2.5 handicap does not look as secure and other appealing bets are the win to nil market but the Barcelona -2 Asian Handicap bet looks safest.

17 Dec, 15 | Posted in: Tips | Comments Closed

Champions League: Matchday 6

The story so far – 19 bets, 5 wins, 19pts staked, -5.29pts

 

It’s going to be a losing system this year which is a shame and a couple of bets in the last round both on English teams who have had their fair share of troubles this season.

 

Wolfsburg – Manchester United – Manchester United@ 3.28 with Pinnacle

Chelsea v FC Porto – Chelsea @ 2.0 with Dafabet

Champions League: Matchday 5

The story so far – 17 bets, 5 wins, 17pts staked, -3.29pts

 

Just a couple this week and need both to win to get back nearly into profit.

 

Zenit vs Valencia – Draw @ 3.32 with 5Dimes

Manchester United vs PSV  – Manchester United -1 @ 1.84 with Dafabet

Champions League: Matchday 4

The story so far – 13 bets, 3 wins, 13pts staked, -4.16pts

 

Back again with these and hoping for a change in fortunes.

 

Real Madrid vs Paris SG – Real Madrid@ 1.8 with Pinnacle

PSV vs Wolfsburg  – PSV@ 3.07 with Pinnacle

AS Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen  – Draw @ 3.73 with Pinnacle

Manchester City vs Sevilla – Draw @ 3.58 with Pinnacle

Champions League: Matchday 3

The story so far – 8 bets, 3 wins, 8pts staked, +0.84pts

 

Another round of matches and a few more flagged up based on past results. Borussia Monchengladbach also appeared but I have ignored them as they are not at the normal standard of German teams and also I think Juve are better than other Italian teams have been of late.

 

Bayer Leverkusen vs AS Roma – Bayer Leverkusen @ 1.94 with 5Dimes

Paris SG vs Real Madrid – Real Madrid@ 3.03 with Pinnacle

CSKA Moscow vs Manchester United – Manchester United @ 2.58 with 5Dimes

Wolfsburg vs PSV – PSV @ 5.88 with Pinnacle

Manchester City vs Sevilla– Draw @ 4.22 with Pinnacle

Champions League: Matchday 2

The story so far – 4 bets, 1 wins, 4pts staked, +0.13pts

 

Another round of matches and a few more flagged up based on past results.

Porto vs Chelsea – Chelea @ 3.41 with Pinnacle

Lyon v Valencia – Valencia @ 2.91 with Pinnacle

Man Utd v Wolfsburg – Man Utd @ 1.8 with 5Dimes

Juventus v Sevilla– Draw@ 3.62 with Pinnacle