Champions League Matchday 2

The Liverpool v PSG tie was the highlight of the first round of matches and really lived up to the hype. Without playing in a competitive league how can PSG ever prepare to play in matches like these, especially against teams that aggressively press them.

In terms of the bets the late goal by Liverpool stopped that being a draw but the late comeback from Inter Milan made that one a winner so swings and roundabouts.

18.09 – Inter v Tottenham: Home win @2.625 Generally WIN +1.625 (2-1)

18.09 – Liverpool v Paris SG: Draw @3.5 Generally LOSE -1 (3-2)

18.09 – Schalke v FC Porto: Home win @2.4 Generally LOSE -1 (1-1)

19.09 – Valencia v Juventus: Home win @4.75 Generally LOSE -1 (0-2)

Summary: 1 win from 4 / -1.375pts

After playing Juventus Valencia now travel to Manchester and will need some sort of result to maintain hopes of qualifying. Manchester City need a win at Hoffenheim and were helped by the other game being a draw in round 1.

The big clashes in matchday 2 are Tottenham at home to Barcelona and Napoli at home to Liverpool. Barcelona are without Umtiti which is important for them as he has made a massive difference for them and helped Pique. Spurs need something from this and have shown they are capable of big wins after beating Real Madrid 3-1 last season.

The Napoli match is interesting as Serie A is starting to look stronger in Europe and Roma took a big step last year beating Barcelona. Napoli have had a tough start to the year and beaten Lazio, AC Milan and Fiorentina already. Italian teams have done well against English teams and this is probably the best value of the bets we have laid out this matchday.

03.10 – Lokomotiv Moscow v Schalke: Away win @2.4 Generally

03.10 – Tottenham v Barcelona: Home win @3.5 with quite a few

03.10 – Napoli v Liverpool: Home win @3.5 with quite a few

03.10 – FC Porto v Galatasaray: Away win @7.5 with quite a few

Champions League Bets 2018-19 Matchday 1

Every year we have a little system in the champions league based on how teams from different countries have performed against each other. It’s a bit of data and a bit of feeling but has often done well so we’ll track it over the 6 matchdays.

18.09 – Inter v Tottenham: Home win @2.625 Generally
18.09 – Liverpool v Paris SG: Draw @3.5 Generally
18.09 – Schalke v FC Porto: Home win @2.4 Generally
19.09 – Valencia v Juventus: Home win @4.75 Generally

In the system we have gone with a draw in the big one and we didn’t expect to see Liverpool as a favourite against PSG. Would have backed Liverpool based on their form but with PSG being a bigger price surely they are the value as the game looks a bit of a coin toss with so much attacking on display.

Europa League 2017-18

The Champions League kicks in this week with some amazing matches but also the Europa League will sneak back into play as well on Thursday. The Europa League fits in one more round than the Champions League.

The Europa League was rebranded in 2009-10 and that is a good starting point for analysis as we have 8 tournaments. Since that time it has been won by Spanish teams 5 teams, English teams twice and 1 win for Porto (Portugal).  Of the 32 semi-finalists 11 have gone from Spain, 6 from Portugal (none since 2013-14), 5 from England and 3 from Italy and just 1 from Germany with the rest shared out elsewhere.

In that time Spain has also dominated the Champions League so their record is especially impressive as it has been the second tier teams winning this tournament.

The current odds are Atletico Madrid (4.5), Arsenal (7), Napoli (12), Dortmund (12), Lazio (17) and AC Milan (19). No idea how they calculate these odds but AC are currently 7th in Serie A and not having a good season so it looks like reputation which is putting them so high in the odds. Napoli would be much shorter but they have a tough draw. Neither Italy or Germany have had a finalist in this tournament in the last 8 years and we’re happy to avoid them.

Atletico Madrid are short in the market but they are not big scorers and could easily have a couple of 0-0 draws and end up having a penalty shootout during the tournament. In the Spanish League they have managed just 34 goals in 23 games and their price is plenty short enough in such a long knockout tournament and this is not a vintage Atletico team.

As you look down the list there are some bigger prices for the Spanish teams such as Villarreal (26), Sociedad (34) and Bilbao (34). There is just one Portuguese team in this which is Sporting Lisbon and they are 34 and have a decent draw. Could it be that the standard of the French League has improved as Lyon were unlucky to not make it to the final last season and with PSG in the league everyone gets the chance to test themselves against the best. Marseille are priced 34 and Lyon are priced 26 and Marseille are above them in the French league and have a much easier draw.

Arsenal are the lone English representative but the feel of the club is not good and even with the new signings the anti-Wenger feeling creates too much of a toxic atmosphere.

We’re taking a few teams teams in this and first is Villarreal. They have a tough draw but they are having a much better season that either Bilbao or Sociedad. Marseille are a big enough price to be the pick of the French teams and hopefully have enough to beat Braga. There are some easy ties in this round and so the draw to the next round will present some teams with easy matches.


Outrights

Sporting 34 (33/1) with Bet365 (1/2pt each way)

Marseille 34 (33/1) generally  (1/2pt each way)

Villarreal 26 (25/1) generally (1/2pt each way)

Round of 32 bets

Ludogrets to qualify vs AC Milan 4 with Bet365 (1/2 pt)

European Teams in the World Club Championship (1 more year on)

Two years ago we published this article about the World Club Championship and both bets were winners. Last year we published this follow up but was not so successful. We have updated the data to include those results and now we have all matches from 2009 to 2015 and the results are shown below

DateTeam 1ScoreTeam 2-2 AH-2.5AH
18.12.2016Kashima4-2 AETReal MadridLoseLose
15.12.2016Club America0-2Real MadridVoidLose
20.12.2015River Plate0-3BarcelonaWinWin
17.12.2015Barcelona3-0Guangzhou EvergrandeWinWin
20.12.2014Real Madrid2-0San LorenzoVoidLose
16.12.2014Cruz Azul0-4Real MadridWinWin
21.12.2013Bayern Munich2-0Raja CasablancaVoidLose
17.12.2013Guangzhou Evergrande0-3Bayern MunichWinWin
18.12.2011Santos0-4BarcelonaWinWin
15.12.2011Al-Sadd0-4BarcelonaWinWin
18.12.2010Mazembe0-3InterWinWin
15.12.2010Seongnam0-3InterWinWin
19.12.2009Estudiantes L.P.1-1*BarcelonaLoseLose
16.12.2009Atlante3-1BarcelonaVoidLose

The European team plays just 2 matches in this tournament nowadays and Real Madrid have already scraped through their first one. If we look at all 14 matches, not included the one played this year, the European teams have conceeded goals in only 3 of them. It still seems clear there is a big gulf in class between the European teams and the others in this and the -2 Asian Handicap looks an interesting bet as this has lost just twice in that time and that was in the finals in 2009 and 2016.

Real Madrid were poor in their opener and playe Gremio in the final who scraped through 1-0 after extra time.  Bet365 offer 1.82 on Real Madrid -1.5, 1.92 on Real Madrid -1.75 and 2.2 on Real Madrid -2 and all of these look to offer value.

14 Dec, 17 | Posted in: Tips | Comments Closed

Europa League

The Europa League has been very kind to us and we have had the winner in the last 2 seasons. You can see all the Europa League posts here.

The Europa League has run in it’s current format for 7 seasons and the winners have been Atletico Madrid twice, Porto, Chelsea and Sevilla 3 times. Those teams come from Portugal, Spain and England and those countries have provided 20 of the 28 semi-finalists in those 7 tournaments.

There are no Portuguese teams in it this year so can be ignored. Spain are the European powerhouse at the moment and they have proven that in the Europa League and previously in the UEFA cup. Of the last 13 finals spanning those 2 competitions a Spanish team has taken the trophy in 8 of them and they have also provided a losing finalist in a couple. This year they probably don’t have as strong a hand as they have in the past with Bilbao, Celta and Villarreal but still should be respected. Villarreal have been drawn with Roma and Celta with Shakhtar and in both those ties the non-Spanish team is favourite.

The English clubs, Man United and Spurs, are favourites and Man United are a ridiculously short price at 5.5 when they need to get through 4 rounds before the final. Dortmund were similarly short last year and got beaten in the last 8. This tournament is not an easy one to win especially as later on in the season other priorities come into place. Spurs gave up in this last season and concentrated on the league.

8 of the last 12 winners were Spanish and those 3 times have to bet in our opinion so that is where we will start.

Advice

Villarreal 21.0 generally 0.5pt e/w

Athletic Bilbao 15.0 generally 0.5pt

Celta Vigo 33.0 generally 0.5pt e/w

e/w bets are all 1/2 odds on making the final

Better odds are available on all those prices and use this promo code for bet 365.

2.5 pts outlay