Corner odds user question and how they are calculated

This question was received this morning

 

Example Aston Villa vs Swansea for the Line 9,5 corners in Match. Your side says for under 9,5 the odds are 1,33. So when I get on bet365 under 9,5 1,83. there is a big value or is the 1,33 not the odd?


The screenshot of what he could see is below
question

 

The reply given was

 

Yes that is saying there is value. Aston Villa at home have had 14, 9, 9 and 8 corners and Swansea away have had 7,4,7 and 12 so that means 6/8 matches have been below 9.5 corners.

 

6/8 = 0.75 (75%)
1/0.75 = 1.33

 

Using the past games the price should be 1.33 but obviously there are lots of other factors to consider and it is not as simple as that. The price is just a guide to convert past results into a decimal price.

 

XC = Cross Corners

This is a question that gets asked more than any other on the site. Often emails are received asking what this means.

 

XC is cross corners which is the home corners x away corners. It’s a statistic that is used in spread betting and also some normal bookmakers offer odds.

 

For example on 13th September Leicester beat Aston Villa 3-2 and in that match Leicester had 4 corners and Aston Villa had 5 so cross corners would have been 4 x 5 = 20.

On the same day Everton beat Chelsea 3-1 and in that match Everton had 7 corners and Chelsea had 14 so cross corners was an enormous 98! (7 x 14)

The day before on 12th September Arsenal beat Stoke 2-0 and had 13 corners to Stoke’s 1 so in that cam cross corners was 13 x 1 = 13.

Team stats page

Someone sent me an email asking how the team stats page works. I replied and also thought I may as well post here if anyone else needs to know.
If I look at the page for over 2.5 goals you see this as the top two rows
Date League Home (matches) Away (matches) Home Over % Away Over % Av % Eq. Odds
22nd Nov Eng Prem Everton (5) West Ham (5) 80.0% 100.0% 90.0% 1.11
22nd Nov Bel Jupiler Lokeren (8) Westerlo (8) 75.0% 87.5% 81.3% 1.23
After the name of the team you can see the number of matches so in this case we see Everton (5) and that means the 5 Everton home matches
H – A Date vs (current position) Res
1 Nov 14 Swansea (5) 0-0 +
18 Oct 14 Aston Villa (16) 3-0 +
21 Sep 14 Crystal Palace (17) 2-3 +
30 Aug 14 Chelsea (1) 3-6 +
23 Aug 14 Arsenal (6) 2-2 +

It only includes home games for the home team and away games for the away team.

User question: Betting on total corners

I  received a question the other day from a user who wanted to know how to use the stats for total corners betting. Rather than answer him directly I am adding the answer to the blog and this is something I will do in the future as well. He asked

“Any bets i would make would be over a certain amount of corners say 9 for example. So the kind of stats i was looking for was previous mayches between lets say Liverpool & Southampton who were playing today. So what i would be looking for would be previous matches between these two, how many corners were there? How many corners liverpool have in home games and southampton away. This gives me a base to make a prediction. What im basically looking to know, does this site have these stats?”

The short answer is yes we do have these stats. At the moment we don’t have historical corner accounts for matches just between these two teams at the moment. For example we can’t see the last 4 or 5 seasons that these teams played and the corner counts. However, I do have this information and this is something I will add to the page.

For total corners you have a few sections you can look at on the site. Tonight Chelsea play against Burnley and if you visit the corner console and set the season to Prev Only then we get all last season’s stats.

corner stats image

Top section of corner stats page

If we look at the section above we can see the top section with the data fron last season for both these teams. The summary boxes at the top give you the top line stats. So we can see that last season Chelsea away matches averaged 11.7 corners and this is similar to Burnley home matches that averaged 11.8 corners. For what it’s worth in a game like this with a big 4 team I would not be too interested in the stats of their opposition as more than likely the game will be controlled and dictated by Chesea.

The match by match section shows the totals in graphical form. This gives you a chance to see any games that are really high or really low and might have changed the average a lot. For example if you look at the Chelsea line (if you click in the key where it says Burnley match total it will remove this line and leave you just with Chelsea) you can see the three highest totals were 18 vs Man City and 17 away at Swansea and Liverpool. Interesting that two of their highest totals game away at the two teams that finished above them. That would indicate they have higher counts against better teams.

If you want to check any stats for a match you can look in the matches section and then click on the + sign at the end of any match and the statistics will appear in the middle. In the example above the match for Chelsea away at Cardiff has been clicked and you can see the corner totals in there.

Asian total corners boxes for total corner bettings

Asian total corners boxes for total corner betting

The main section for checking total corners and getting an idea of the odds needed is the ASIAN TOTAL CORNERS section which is shown above. You can move up and down this section and see how the lines look. Above I have looked at the 11 and 11.5 line. The Asian Handicap differs slightly from just total corners as there are only 2 outcomes. For example for this match Bet365 have the Asian Total Corners line at 11 and the price is 1.9 for over 11 and 1.9 for under 11. If the total corners for the match was 11 then you would have your stake returned. If we look at the line being 11 and Chelsea’s stats last season we can see that they played matches 19 matches away from home and in 7 of those they went under 11 corners and in 9 of those they went over 19 corners and in 3 they landed bang on 11 corners. In this case it would look like the over 11 line is better value as based on last seasons stats the equivalent price should be 1.78 but we can get 1.9 with Bet365. However, This is Chelsea against a small team and I would want to take that into account. For example if we exclude matches against the other teams in the top 4 we are left with 16 matches and in those 16 matches 7 were under 11 corners, 6 were over 11 corners and 3 were exactly spot on 11 corners.  So if we then look at games that were under 11 corners we have 7/13 matches (ignore the 3 draws in an Asian Handicap) which is 53.8% and equivalent to odds of 1.86 so pretty much what Bet365 offer with a tiny bit of value.

For the total corner line (not asian) if you wanted to back under 11 corners then it’s 7/16 matches which is around 43.5% and equivalent to odds of 2.29 but Bet365 only offer you a price of evens in the corners market on Over 11 corners. They offer 8.5 (15/2) on exactly 11 corners and that could well be the best value of the 3 choices.

Hope this is useful and if you have any follow ups please post as a comment.